Synsam is the Nordic optical-retail leader (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland), and its differentiator is the Synsam Lifestyle spectacle-subscription — now ~SEK 3,767M (~53% of net sales, +10.4%) with a growing active subscriber base. That converts a one-off eyewear purchase into a recurring annuity on a structurally high ~74-76% gross margin, which is the heart of the investment case. FY2025 was a record year (total revenue SEK 7,200M, +10.4%; organic +11.4%), with EBIT SEK 862M and the EBIT margin diluted to 12.0% (from 12.6%) by the heavy 2024-25 greenfield store-opening programme raising depreciation.
The APM is clean — the company's 'items affecting comparability' framework produced no EBIT adjustment in FY2025, so adjusted EBITA equals reported. The one figure we keep in opex against management's PPA treatment is SEK 100M of purchase-price-allocation amortization (mostly original-acquisition customer-relations, ~1.4% of revenue) — but that drag has only ~1.5 years left and largely rolls off by ~2027, a built-in margin tailwind. Adjusted ROIC ~12.2% on IC SEK 5,568M clears the 8% WACC for EP +SEK 234M (~4pp spread) — decent, not exceptional; the subscription annuity is the quality, not the returns.
On adjusted NOPAT (SEK 680M) the reverse-DCF base sits ~−2% to the SEK 55.4 price at 5% growth and +8% at 10% (PEBV ~1.46, EV/IC ~1.9x) — the market is pricing ~5-6% sustained growth, roughly fair for a high-gross-margin subscription retailer with a greenfield growth runway.
Base SEK 56 (fairly valued; subscription scaling + the ~2027 PPA roll-off the upside levers); bull SEK 64 if subscription mix and store maturation lift the EBIT margin toward ~13-14% (the 10% case); bear SEK 47 if greenfield drag persists and consumer demand softens (no-growth case).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 6.0% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 12% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +4.2 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 47/share (84% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 64 | +12% | +16% | 30% | Subscription mix + store maturation lift EBIT margin to ~13-14% |
| Base | SEK 56 | +6% | +1% | 45% | Fairly valued; ~5-6% growth priced |
| Bear | SEK 47 | +0% | -15% | 25% | Greenfield drag persists + consumer softness |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 56 | — | +1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 70 | 78 | 83 | 92 | 98 | 115 |
| 7.25% | 57 | 62 | 66 | 73 | 77 | 89 |
| 8.00% (base) | 47 | 51 | 54 | 58 | 62 | 70 |
| 8.75% | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 50 | 55 |
| 9.50% | 33 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 55.40. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Synsam Lifestyle ~53% of net sales (+10%) — recurring revenue on a ~74-76% gross margin.
The 2024-25 greenfield programme depresses margin now; maturing stores lift it later.
~SEK 100M (~1.4% of revenue) customer-relations amortization largely ends by ~2027 — a margin tailwind.
Adjusted ROIC ~12.2% > 8% WACC, EP +SEK 234M.
Synsam is a quality Nordic optical-retailer whose spectacle-subscription annuity (~53% of net sales) and high gross margin underpin above-WACC returns (ROIC ~12.2%, EP +SEK 234M), fairly valued at PEBV ~1.46. HOLD with a quality/subscription bias; base SEK 56.
Accumulate on consumer-driven weakness; the subscription scaling plus the ~2027 PPA-amortization roll-off are the levers that move it from fair to cheap.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (total, LTM Q1 2026) | 7,266 | Condensed consolidated income statement 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 total revenue 7,200 - Q1 2025 1,735 + Q1 2026 1,801. Total revenue = net sales 1,773 + other operating income 28 for Q1 2026; 1,708 + 27 for Q1 2025; FY2025 net sales 7,065 + 135. All three columns read from the Q1 2026 income statement (Q1 p.18); the FY column cross-checks the AR consolidated income statement (AR p.94). |
| Revenue (FY2025 anchor) | 7,200 | Consolidated statement of income 📄 p.94 | Net sales 7,065 + other operating income 135 = total revenue 7,200 (AR p.94). |
| EBIT (LTM Q1 2026) | 874 | Income statement (EBIT line) 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 862 - Q1 2025 174 + Q1 2026 186 (Q1 p.18). FY EBIT cross-checked at AR p.94. |
| EBIT (FY2025 anchor) | 862 | Operating profit (EBIT) 📄 p.94 | Reported operating profit 862 (819 prior year), EBIT margin 12.0% (AR p.94, p.34). |
| Goodwill | 2,566 | Note 8 Intangible non-current assets 📄 p.116 | Goodwill carrying amount 2,566 @ 31 Dec 2025 (2,645 prior year), allocated Sweden 1,262 / Denmark 881 / Norway 367 / Finland 56; mostly from the acquisition of the Synsam Nordic A/S Group (Notes 8-9, AR p.116-117). |
| PPA amortisation (FY2025) | 100 | Note 8 — amortisation for the year 📄 p.116 | Customer-relations amortisation 94 + finite-life trademark amortisation 6 = 100 (purchase-price-allocation amortisation from the CVC buyout). Software & licences amortisation 29 is ordinary and excluded from PPA. Total intangible amortisation FY2025 = 128 (Note 8, AR p.116). We KEEP PPA in opex. |
| Subscription / contract liabilities (advances from customers + deferred income) | 62 | Note 23 Accrued expenses and deferred income 📄 p.127 | Advances from customers 54 + deferred income 8 = 62 @ 31 Dec 2025. Deliberately small: the Synsam Lifestyle subscription is structured as customer FINANCING (interest received +275 / credit costs -396 attributable to Lifestyle leases run through net financial items, Note 24), NOT as a large deferred-revenue liability (AR p.127). |
| Lease liability (total, Q1 2026) | 867 | Condensed BS / net-debt table (Q1 p.30) 📄 p.19 | Current lease liabilities 385 + non-current lease liabilities 482 = 867 @ 31 Mar 2026 (796 @ 31 Dec 2025: 379 current + 417 non-current, AR p.95). ROU assets are overwhelmingly store premises (Note 11). Included in IC. |
| Interest-bearing debt (Q1 2026) | 2,763 | Condensed consolidated BS 📄 p.19 | Non-current loans from financial institutions 2,728 + other non-current interest-bearing liabilities 34 + other current interest-bearing 1 = 2,763 @ 31 Mar 2026 (excludes lease liabilities, tracked separately). Loans cross-checked in the Q1 net-debt table (Q1 p.30). |
| Cash and cash equivalents (Q1 2026) | 736 | Condensed consolidated BS 📄 p.19 | Cash 736 @ 31 Mar 2026 (533 prior year; 600 @ 31 Dec 2025). SEK 5m pledged for the buyback programme (Q1 p.9, p.30). |
| Equity (Q1 2026) | 2,606 | Condensed statement of changes in equity 📄 p.19 | Equity at end of period 2,606 @ 31 Mar 2026: opening 2,436 + comprehensive income 216 + share savings 9 - buybacks 56. Translation reserve +82, retained -1,783; share capital 1, other paid-in 4,306. All attributable to Parent Company shareholders, NCI = 0 (Q1 p.19). |
| Income tax (LTM Q1 2026) | -142 | Income tax line 📄 p.18 | LTM = FY2025 -136 - Q1 2025 -28 + Q1 2026 -34 = -142 on PBT 639 -> effective tax rate 22.2% used for NOPAT. FY2025 effective rate 23%, Q1 2026 20%; non-capitalised Finnish loss carryforwards keep the rate above the 20.6% Swedish statutory (Note 7, AR p.115; Q1 p.7). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.