SpareBank 1 Ostlandet is the largest of the SpareBank 1 savings banks, serving Eastern Norway, with the alliance's scale and product reach. ROE is ~13.9% reported (normalized ~13.0%; Q1 2026 was depressed by an NOK 80m severance one-off, but ex-provision still met the >=13% target), CET1 17.6% (total capital 21.9%), with residual income +NOK 957m over a 10% cost of equity — value-creative.
It trades at 1.37x book, 1.45x tangible and 10.4x earnings, with a ~6.7% recurring dividend yield (70% payout) plus a separate customer dividend. On a normalized 13.0% ROE the Gordon fair P/B implies ~NOK 198 (+4%); on reported ROE ~NOK 215 (+14%). A solid regional bank at a small discount to fair value with a high yield. The watch items are NII/mortgage-margin pressure and a pending government review of the equity-certificate/customer-dividend structure.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: normalized 13.0% ROE -> ~NOK 198 (+4%); reported 13.9% -> ~NOK 215 (+14%). Current 1.37x book, 10.4x earnings, ~6.7% yield.
Base NOK 198 (normalized-ROE fair value); bull NOK 220 if ROE holds ~14% as the severance one-off drops out; bear NOK 165 on NII compression + a de-rate.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 10.0% vs 13.6% currently earned; at a sustained 13.6% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.51× (NOK 285/sh, +51%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 220 | 11% | +16% | 35% | ROE holds ~14% as severance one-off drops out |
| Base | NOK 198 | 10% | +5% | 45% | Normalized-ROE Gordon fair value |
| Bear | NOK 165 | 9% | -13% | 20% | NII compression; de-rate |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 199 | — | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 240 | 378 | 515 | 653 | 790 | 928 | 1065 |
| 9.25% | 212 | 333 | 454 | 574 | 695 | 816 | 937 |
| 10.00% (base) | 189 | 297 | 405 | 513 | 621 | 729 | 837 |
| 10.75% | 171 | 268 | 366 | 463 | 561 | 658 | 756 |
| 11.50% | 156 | 245 | 333 | 422 | 511 | 600 | 689 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 189.40. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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Largest SpareBank 1 bank; Eastern-Norway franchise + alliance scale.
CET1 17.6%, total 21.9% — ample buffer.
~6.7% recurring yield (+ customer dividend) at 70% payout.
The Q1 severance one-off rolling off lifts the run-rate ROE.
SpareBank 1 Ostlandet is a high-quality, fortress-capitalised regional bank trading slightly below its normalized-ROE Gordon fair value with a ~6.7% yield. BUY/accumulate; base NOK 198.
Quality + yield + a small discount; the swing factors are the NII path and the EC-structure review.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income (FY2025) | 4,711 | Key figures from the Group p.27 | Core revenue line for a bank. FY2025 group NII 4,711 (2024: 4,213), +11.8% on loan growth (Totens merger) and stable margins; NII 2.20% of average assets. |
| Net commissions and other operating income (FY2025) | 2,155 | Key figures from the Group p.27 / Income statement p.184 | Fee & commission income line; FY2025 2,155 (2024: 1,690), +27.5% on strong growth in commission income and the savings/insurance franchise. |
| Total net income (FY2025) | 7,654 | Key figures from the Group p.27 / Income statement p.184 | Total operating income FY2025 7,654 (2024: 6,946) = NII 4,711 + net commissions 2,155 + net financials 788. |
| Pre-tax operating profit (FY2025) | 4,279 | Key figures from the Group p.27 / Income statement p.184 | Pre-tax profitability proxy for a bank (after operating costs 3,074 and loan losses 301). Operating profit before losses 4,580; pre-tax 4,279 (2024: 4,052). |
| Profit after tax (FY2025, group) | 3,549 | Income statement - Group p.184 | FY2025 group profit after tax 3,549 (2024: 3,356). Of this, 138 attributable to AT1/hybrid holders, 33 to NCI, and 3,377 to controlling ownership interest. |
| Profit after tax for controlling ownership (FY2025) | 3,377 | Income statement - Group p.184 | Profit attributable to EC-holders + primary capital owners (ex-AT1, ex-NCI) = 3,377; this is the base for ROE and per-ECC EPS. Less-hybrid figure (3,411) used for the reported RoE 13.9%. |
| Return on equity (FY2025) | 0.139 | Key figures from the Group p.27 | Bank return measure. Reported RoE 13.9% (2024: 15.8%), above the >=13% target. Q1 2026 RoE 12.4%, depressed by an NOK 80m severance provision (underlying ~13%). |
| Common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1, FY2025) | 0.176 | Solidity and liquidity p.28 | Regulatory capital strength. CET1 17.6% (2024: 16.8%); Tier 1 19.4%; total capital adequacy 21.9%. Q1 2026 CET1 17.8%. Comfortably above requirement with a >=1.0pp management buffer. |
| Cost-income ratio (FY2025) | 0.402 | Key figures from the Group p.27 | Operating efficiency. C/I 40.2% (2024: 37.4%); the rise reflects 2025 as an investment year (Totens integration, technology). Long-term target is a lower C/I; a Christmas-2025 hiring freeze and cost program are in place. |
| Loan loss ratio (FY2025) | 0.002 | Losses and commitments in default p.28 | Cost of risk. Impairment on loans 0.19% of gross loans (2024: 0.19%); FY2025 impairment charge 301. Stage 3 loans 2.07% of gross. Low, stable losses typical of a Norwegian mortgage-heavy savings bank. |
| ECC ratio / equity certificate ratio (FY2025) | 0.732 | Equity capital certificates (ECC) p.29 | The EC-holders' share of the bank's owners' equity = 73.2% (the remaining 26.8% is ownerless primary capital). Applied to split profit and equity for per-ECC metrics. Q1 2026: 73.1%. |
| Number of equity certificates issued | 135,860,724 | Key figures for the equity capital certificate p.30 | 135,860,724 ECCs outstanding at 31.12.2025 and 31.03.2026 (up from 115,829,789 after the 2024 Totens Sparebank merger). Nominal NOK 50. Used for EC market cap, BVPS, P/B. |
| Book equity per ECC (FY2025) | 138 | Key figures for the equity capital certificate p.30 | Book equity per equity certificate NOK 138.25 (2024: 129.85). = EC-holders' share of owners' equity (18,783) / 135,860,724. Q1 2026: 129.73 (pre-dividend-payout timing). Basis for P/B. |
| Earnings per ECC (FY2025) | 18.19 | Key figures for the equity capital certificate p.30 | EPS per equity certificate NOK 18.19 (2024: 19.07) = profit-less-hybrid for controlling x average ECC ratio / number of ECCs. Basis for P/E 10.4x at NOK 189.40. |
| Dividend per ECC (FY2025) | 12.7 | Key figures for the equity capital certificate p.30 / Board proposal | Proposed cash dividend NOK 12.70/ECC (2024: 10.30), totaling NOK 1,725m; payout ratio 69.8%. Plus a parallel customer dividend (NOK 582m, paid April 2026) from primary capital. Direct return 6.2% at YE price. |
| Total equity capital (group, 31.12.2025) | 27,837 | Balance sheet - Group p.183 | Total IFRS equity 27,837 (2024: 26,213) incl. ECC capital 6,793, premium 2,682, dividend equalisation fund 6,199, primary capital 5,529, hybrid/AT1 1,871, NCI 294, other. Owners' common equity = 27,837 - 1,871 - 294 = 25,672. |
| Market price per ECC (31.12.2025) | 206 | Key figures for the equity capital certificate p.30 | Report's own 31.12.2025 close NOK 205.85 (P/B 1.49x, P/E 11.32x). Current verified price NOK 189.40 (8 Jun 2026) used for live multiples; ATH 215.70 on 27 Feb 2026. |
| Net interest income (Q1 2026) | 1,118 | Q1 2026 key figures / Income statement | Q1 2026 NII 1,118 (Q1 2025: 1,173; Q4 2025: 1,186) — declined on intense mortgage competition compressing margins. Used in LTM bridge. |
| Profit after tax (Q1 2026) | 800 | Q1 2026 key figures / Consolidated profit | Q1 2026 profit after tax 800 (Q1 2025: 867). RoE 12.4%, below the 13% target ONLY because of an NOK 80m severance provision; ex-provision RoE met target. Used in LTM bridge. |
| CET1 ratio (Q1 2026) | 0.178 | Q1 2026 capital ratios | CET1 17.8% at 31 Mar 2026 (up from 17.6% YE2025) — capital build continues; latest-quarter regulatory strength confirms a comfortable buffer over requirement. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.