SkiStar operates the leading Nordic alpine ski destinations (Sälen, Åre, Vemdalen, Trysil, Hemsedal), a vertically-integrated, destination-oligopoly model spanning lift tickets, accommodation, ski rental and real-estate development. Adjusted ROIC of ~8% only matches the 8% WACC (thin +SEK 20M economic profit) — the asset-heavy mountain real estate weighs on returns.
The equity at SEK 148 embeds ~7.8% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), demanding for a mature, weather- and consumer-sensitive leisure business. Quality destinations and pricing power are real; the valuation is full and seasonally/weather-exposed.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 56–59 across scenarios — well below the SEK 148 price (~7.8% implied growth). The destination-oligopoly and real-estate value support a premium, but thin current returns make the equity fully valued.
Base SEK 145 (−2%); bull SEK 185 (strong seasons + pricing + real-estate gains); bear SEK 110 (poor snow seasons or a consumer/leisure downturn).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~9.7%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 90/share (60% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 185 | ≥10% | +24% | 30% | Strong seasons + pricing + real-estate gains |
| Base | SEK 145 | ≥10% | -3% | 45% | Full: ~7.8% implied growth, thin returns |
| Bear | SEK 110 | ≥10% | -26% | 25% | Poor snow seasons / leisure downturn |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 148 | — | -0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 132 | 144 | 152 | 165 | 174 | 198 |
| 7.25% | 108 | 116 | 121 | 130 | 136 | 150 |
| 8.00% (base) | 90 | 95 | 99 | 104 | 108 | 116 |
| 8.75% | 76 | 80 | 82 | 85 | 87 | 90 |
| 9.50% | 65 | 67 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 71 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 148.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Leading Nordic ski destinations with pricing power and high guest loyalty.
Lift, lodging, rental and real-estate capture the full guest spend.
Mountain real-estate development adds periodic value/cash.
Pricing and season-pass models support yield.
New alpine destinations are hard to create — a structural moat.
SkiStar is a quality Nordic ski-destination oligopoly at a full price with thin current returns and weather risk. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 145 (−2%).
Strong snow seasons plus pricing and real-estate gains are the upside; weather and consumer cyclicality are the principal risks.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
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How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.