Royal Unibrew is a multi-beverage group (beer, soft drinks, water, ready-to-drink) with strong positions across the Nordics, Baltics and Italy, a disciplined bolt-on M&A record and high returns on capital (13.2% adjusted ROIC, +DKK 690M economic profit). It is a defensive, branded-consumer compounder.
The reverse-DCF fair value brackets the DKK 418 price (DKK 407 at GDP, DKK 439 at 5% growth) on a modest ~3% implied perpetual growth — defensible for a branded beverage business. The equity is therefore fairly valued with a slight positive skew if margins and M&A deliver.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through DKK 6.5B net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs DKK 377 (zero growth), DKK 407 (GDP) and DKK 439 (5% growth) — i.e. fair-to-slightly-cheap at the DKK 418 price for a 13%-ROIC branded compounder.
Base DKK 430 (+3%) on continued organic growth plus accretive M&A; bull DKK 500 (margin expansion and a step-up in acquisitions); bear DKK 360 (input-cost inflation or a consumer slowdown compresses margins).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 1.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 14% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +5.5 pp); the no-growth value is DKK 395/share (95% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 500 | +8% | +21% | 35% | Margin expansion + step-up in M&A |
| Base | DKK 430 | +3% | +4% | 40% | Fair: organic growth + accretive bolt-ons |
| Bear | DKK 360 | -3% | -13% | 25% | Input-cost inflation / consumer slowdown |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 437 | — | +6% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 581 | 647 | 694 | 769 | 822 | 968 |
| 7.25% | 474 | 523 | 558 | 614 | 653 | 759 |
| 8.00% (base) | 395 | 433 | 460 | 502 | 531 | 608 |
| 8.75% | 336 | 365 | 385 | 417 | 438 | 494 |
| 9.50% | 289 | 311 | 327 | 350 | 366 | 406 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 414.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Multi-beverage portfolio with strong regional brands and pricing power.
13.2% ROIC and +DKK 690M EP — genuine value creation.
Disciplined acquisitions have compounded value across the Nordics, Baltics and Italy.
Spread across Nordic, Baltic and Italian markets dampens single-market risk.
Steady free cash flow funds dividends and acquisitions.
Royal Unibrew is a quality, defensive beverage compounder at a fair price. We rate it HOLD with a slight positive tilt, medium conviction; base target DKK 430 (+3%) — a name to accumulate on weakness.
A consumer- or cost-driven pullback toward DKK 370–380, near the reverse-DCF floor, would be the better entry.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.