Orion is a Finnish pharmaceutical company combining a high-margin proprietary franchise — led by Nubeqa (darolutamide, prostate cancer, partnered with Bayer) and Easyhaler respiratory products — with a diversified generics and consumer-health base. Adjusted ROIC of 35% and +€389M economic profit, with a quality score of 81, mark a genuinely high-return franchise.
Crucially, the price embeds only ~3.5% perpetual growth — modest given Nubeqa's strong growth trajectory and label expansion. That combination of high realised returns and low implied growth is what makes Orion the standout 'quality and value' name in the batch.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of €503M and bridging through modest net debt (€144M), the reverse-DCF fair value runs €55 (zero growth) to €80 (10% growth); the €70.6 price sits between the GDP and 5% scenarios — i.e. only modest implied growth for a 35% ROIC franchise with a major growth driver in Nubeqa. The asymmetry is favourable.
Base €78 (+10%, Nubeqa growth + modest re-rate above the floor); bull €90 (label expansions and pipeline optionality); bear €62 (Nubeqa competition/partner-economics disappoint, generics pricing pressure).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 3.9% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 42% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +34.5 pp); the no-growth value is €59/share (86% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €90 | +11% | +30% | 40% | Nubeqa label expansions + pipeline optionality |
| Base | €78 | +7% | +13% | 40% | Nubeqa growth + modest re-rate above floor |
| Bear | €62 | +1% | -10% | 20% | Nubeqa competition / generics pricing pressure |
| Prob-weighted | €80 | — | +15% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 81 | 92 | 100 | 113 | 122 | 149 |
| 7.25% | 69 | 77 | 84 | 94 | 102 | 123 |
| 8.00% (base) | 59 | 67 | 72 | 81 | 87 | 105 |
| 8.75% | 52 | 59 | 63 | 71 | 76 | 91 |
| 9.50% | 47 | 52 | 56 | 63 | 67 | 80 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €69.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Darolutamide is compounding strongly with label expansions across prostate-cancer settings — the core growth driver, de-risked via the Bayer partnership.
Among the highest-return names in the Nordic universe; genuine economic-value creation.
Price embeds only ~3.5% perpetual growth — a real margin of safety for the quality.
Generics, consumer health and Easyhaler respiratory provide cash-generative ballast beneath the proprietary franchise.
Low leverage and a well-covered dividend support total return while Nubeqa scales.
Orion offers the batch's best blend of quality and value: a 35%-ROIC franchise with a major growth engine in Nubeqa, priced for only ~3.5% perpetual growth. We rate it BUY, medium conviction; base target €78 (+10%).
Conviction rises on continued Nubeqa label expansion; the diversified base and strong balance sheet limit downside to the Nubeqa-disappointment scenario.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.