SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge is the leading bank of Northern Norway — retail and corporate banking across a vast, structurally under-banked region, with the scale and product reach of the SpareBank 1 alliance. The listed security is an equity certificate ('egenkapitalbevis') representing the 46.36% owners' fraction of the bank's capital; ROE, EPS and book value are computed on that owners' slice and reconcile to the bank's reported per-certificate figures. Returns are high and clean: ROE ~17.7% LTM (18.1% FY2025), near-zero loan losses (~0.07%), CET1 16.5% (total capital 21.0%).
On bank primitives (ROE/P-B, not ROIC/EV) it trades at 1.78x book, 1.80x tangible and 9.9x earnings, with a ~5.8% dividend yield (55.6% payout). That ~17.7% ROE is a healthy spread over a ~10% cost of equity (positive residual income), but the reported figure is rate-inflated and NIM is already compressing (2.62% vs 2.91%); on a normalized through-cycle 15% ROE the Gordon fair value is ~NOK 142 — roughly the ~147 price. A high-quality regional bank, fairly valued, owned for the dividend and the capital strength rather than a re-rating.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: a normalized 15% ROE gives a fair value ~NOK 142 (the reported 17.7% ROE implies higher). Current 1.78x book, 9.9x earnings, ~5.8% yield.
Base NOK 145 (~fair on normalized ROE; the dividend is the return); bull NOK 170 if rates stay higher-for-longer and ROE holds ~17%+; bear NOK 120 if NIM compresses further and the multiple de-rates toward ~1.4x book.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 8.8% vs 18.0% currently earned; at a sustained 18.0% ROE the warranted P/B is 2.14× (NOK 382/sh, +159%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 170 | 10% | +15% | 30% | Rates stay higher-for-longer; ROE holds ~17%+ |
| Base | NOK 145 | 9% | -2% | 45% | ~Fair on normalized ROE; dividend is the return |
| Bear | NOK 120 | 8% | -18% | 25% | NIM compresses; multiple de-rates toward ~1.4x book |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 146 | — | -1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 227 | 357 | 487 | 616 | 746 | 876 | 1006 |
| 9.25% | 200 | 314 | 428 | 542 | 657 | 771 | 885 |
| 10.00% (base) | 178 | 280 | 382 | 484 | 586 | 688 | 790 |
| 10.75% | 161 | 253 | 345 | 437 | 530 | 622 | 714 |
| 11.50% | 147 | 231 | 315 | 399 | 483 | 567 | 651 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 147.22. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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Leading Northern-Norway franchise + alliance scale = stable, high-return banking.
CET1 16.5%, near-zero loan losses — defensive quality.
~5.8% yield at 55.6% payout off surplus capital.
Higher-for-longer rates support NII and the ~17% ROE.
SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge is a high-quality, fortress-capitalised regional bank (~17.7% ROE, CET1 16.5%, near-zero losses) trading ~at a normalized-ROE Gordon fair value with a ~5.8% yield. HOLD; base NOK 145.
Own it for the capital strength and dividend, not a re-rating; the swing factor is the NIM/rate path.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income (FY2025, Group) | 4,030 | Annual report income statement p.138 | Core bank revenue line. FY2025 Group NII 4,030 (4,028 in 2024). LTM NII 3,982 = Q1'26 938 + FY 4,030 - Q1'25 986. |
| Net interest income (Q1 2026) | 938 | Group financial highlights p.3 | Q1 2026 NII 938 (986 in Q1 2025), down on margin compression; net interest margin 2.62% of average assets vs 2.91%. Used in LTM roll. |
| Total net income (Q1 2026 / FY2025) | 6,460 | Group financial highlights p.3 (FY column) + AR p.138 | FY2025 total income 6,460; Q1'26 1,466; Q1'25 1,557. LTM total income = 1,466 + 6,460 - 1,557 = 6,369. |
| Result before tax (FY2025, Group) | 4,279 | Annual report income statement p.138 | Pre-tax profit FY2025 4,279 (4,512 in 2024). Bank 'operating profit' proxy. LTM = 924 + 4,279 - 1,008 = 4,195. |
| Result for the year (FY2025, Group incl NCI) | 3,457 | Annual report income statement p.138 | Group net profit 3,457 (controlling owner 3,421 + NCI 36). LTM group result = 719 + 3,457 - 811 = 3,365. |
| Owners' result ex-hybrid (FY2025) / Result per EC | 15.29 | Note 41 Result per EC p.191 | Owners' adjusted result 3,311 (= 3,457 - NCI 36 - hybrid interest 110); EC holders' share at 46.36% = 1,535; / 100.398m EC = result per EC NOK 15.29. Confirms owner-basis methodology and EC ratio. |
| EC ownership fraction (egenkapitalbevisbrok / EC ratio) | 0.464 | Note 41 Equity and EC ratio p.191 | Equity-certificate holders' percentage of equity 46.36% (community/society 53.64%). The single most important structural figure — defines what the listed NONG certificate represents. Unchanged for 10+ years. |
| EC owners' share of equity (31 Dec 2025 / 31 Mar 2026) | 8,307 | Q1 2026 Note 20 Equity p.43 | EC owner's share of equity 8,307 at 31 Mar 2026 (8,842 at 31 Dec 2025). / 100.398m EC = book value per EC NOK 82.74 (reported 82.73). Basis for P/B. |
| Total equity / hybrid / NCI (31 Mar 2026) | 19,782 | Q1 2026 Balance sheet p.17 | Total equity 19,782 = EC owners' 8,307 + society 9,609 + hybrid 1,575 + NCI 291. Owners' common equity (ex-hybrid, ex-NCI) = 17,916, the invested-capital base. Down from 20,839 (Dec) on the 1,840m dividend paid in Q1. |
| Number of equity certificates issued | 100,398,016 | Note 41 EC and ownership structure p.190 | 100,398,016 certificates, nominal NOK 18, EC capital NOK 1,807,164,288. Unchanged since 2013. Used for per-EC figures and listed market cap. |
| Return on equity (FY2025 / Q1 2026) | 0.181 | Group financial highlights p.3 | Reported RoE FY2025 18.1%, Q1 2026 14.9%, Q1 2025 17.4% (hybrid treated as liability). Our LTM owners' ROE 17.7%; normalized through-cycle 15% used for Gordon. Recent level rate-inflated. |
| Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1) | 0.165 | Group financial highlights p.3 / Note 21 p.44 | Regulatory capital strength. CET1 16.5% Q1 2026 (16.2% FY2025), comfortably above requirement and internal target; Tier 1 18.5%, total capital 21.0%. CET1 capital 14,664m, RWA 88,913m (under CRR3 from 1 Apr 2025). |
| Cost/income ratio | 0.353 | Group financial highlights p.3 | C/I 35.3% Q1 2026 (32.5% FY2025). Bank has set a long-term target of <=35% from 2026; a simplification/cost project targets NOK 40-50m annual savings from 2027. |
| Loan losses (Q1 2026 / FY2025) and loss ratio | 24 | Losses, p.3 highlights + p.11 narrative | Net loan losses NOK 24m Q1 2026 (57m Q1 2025), 81m FY2025 — historically low. Loss ratio ~0.07% of gross loans FY2025; entirely from Corporate Market (construction/contracting). Structural low-risk lending culture. |
| Equity per EC / Result per EC / P-E / P-B (Q1 2026) | 82.73 | NONG Key figures p.4 | Bank's own per-EC key figures at 31 Mar 2026: Equity per EC NOK 82.73, Result per EC 3.15 (quarter), P/E 12.19, P/B 1.88 (at the report's NONG price 155.70). Confirms our 82.74 BVPS and per-EC method; live multiples recomputed at NOK 147.22. |
| Dividend per EC FY2025 | 8.5 | Proposed profit allocation p.17 / Note 42 p.192 | Cash dividend NOK 8.50 per EC (total 853m to EC holders), payout 55.6% of Group profit; ex-date 27 Mar 2026. Yield 5.77% on NOK 147.22. High, stable savings-bank distribution. |
| Quoted/market price NONG (history) | 152 | Key figures ECC NONG p.9 | Bank's own NONG closing price 151.90 (31 Dec 2025), 123.48 (2024), with P/B 1.7x and P/E 9.9x on FY2025 figures. Live verified price NOK 147.22 (8 Jun 2026) used for current multiples. |
| Hybrid Tier 1 capital (classified as equity) | 1,575 | Note 20 Hybrid capital p.43 | Six perpetual Tier 1 instruments NOK 1,575m (1,450m FY2025), avg coupon 7.20%, classified as IFRS equity but treated as a liability for owner key figures (interest 27m Q1 charged to equity). Excluded from owners' equity base. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.