Moreld provides offshore energy services — engineering, fabrication, maintenance/modifications and, via Ocean Installer, subsea construction. The FY2025 screen surfaced it as a ~22%-ROIC, +NOK 320m-EP value-creator at ~12x P/E. The FY2025 note flagged that figure as a cycle peak that overstated the forward run-rate; the Q1 2026 print confirms it — operating result swung to −NOK 167m and the company's own LTM EBITDA excl IFRS-16 fell to NOK 558m (from NOK 1,075m at FY2025).
Re-deriving on the same lease-in-invested-capital basis as the FY2025 note: LTM adjusted EBIT ~NOK 291m, NOPAT ~NOK 227m on adjusted IC ~NOK 2,689m → adjusted ROIC ~8.5%, now BELOW the 11% WACC, with economic profit ≈ −NOK 70m. The cyclical, single-engine, IFRS-16-heavy quality the FY2025 note priced is intact; what changed is that the trailing return has reverted through (below) the cost of capital — exactly the peak-reversion the prior note warned about.
The Q1 trough is partly seasonal and one-off: Ocean Installer's weakest quarter, deepened by the North Sea Giant dry-docking — both key vessels are back in operation from Q2 and management maintains FY2026 EBITDA guidance of NOK 0.7–0.9bn. So trailing LTM now UNDERstates a normalized forward just as FY2025 OVERstated it. On the consistent lease-in-IC basis, a guided-recovery ROIC lands around the cost of capital (low-double-digits) — not back to 21.6%. Moreld is a roughly WACC-clearing, deeply cyclical project business, not the high-ROIC compounder the screen's fund leg implies.
Base NOK 19 (≈ current; trough offset by the guided H2 recovery, dividend support); bull NOK 26 if the FY2026 guidance is met and backlog (NOK 6.3bn, Ocean Installer 3.7bn) converts; bear NOK 12 if the recovery stalls into an offshore downcycle and the payout is cut.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -9.2% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 22% on capital against a 11% cost of capital (spread +10.6 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 27/share (138% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 26 | -1% | +34% | 30% | FY2026 guidance met; backlog converts; re-rate |
| Base | NOK 19 | -10% | -2% | 45% | ≈ current; trough offset by guided recovery + dividend |
| Bear | NOK 12 | -21% | -38% | 25% | Recovery stalls into offshore downcycle; payout cut |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 19 | — | -0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.50% | 34 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 57 |
| 10.25% | 30 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 49 |
| 11.00% (base) | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 43 |
| 11.75% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 38 |
| 12.50% | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 33 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 19.36. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Both enabling vessels back offshore from Q2; FY2026 EBITDA guidance NOK 0.7–0.9bn maintained — the thesis now hinges on this delivering.
Payout RAISED to NOK 0.50/qtr (~10% yield) despite the Q1 loss — the floor while the cycle turns.
Order backlog up QoQ to NOK 6.3bn (Ocean Installer 3.7bn); EMOD/EPRO Equinor frame win adds near-field volume.
NIBD ex-leases only NOK 335m (0.6x); USD 130m bond to 2030; goodwill NOK 885m unimpaired — no solvency pressure through the trough.
Q1 2026 confirms Moreld's FY2025 ROIC of 21.6% was a cycle peak: on LTM Q1 2026 the adjusted ROIC is ~8.5%, below the 11% WACC, with EP slightly negative. This is a cyclical earnings reset on a sound balance sheet (no impairment, 0.6x ex-lease leverage), not a broken thesis. HOLD, low conviction; cyclical-peak — own only for the ~10% dividend and buy in weakness, not at the screen's peak-earnings valuation.
Sign-off item: the live screen extraction still carries the FY2025 21.6% ROIC, inflating Moreld's composite (67.2, book rank 16). Refreshing it to the LTM-Q1'26 ~8.5% would lower the fund leg and likely drop Moreld out of the top-30 book — book-affecting. Recommendation: do NOT reprice to a single seasonal-trough quarter (the mirror of the peak error); flag the composite as peak-inflated now and re-extract + re-rank at H1 2026 (~Aug), aligned with the measurement-maturity review.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and other operating income | 9,838 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss / Note 4 | Revenue from contracts with customers 9,828,694 + other operating income 9,635 = 9,838,329 (NOK thousand) = 9,838.3m. Prior year 7,136.4 (Ocean Installer only from Q3 2024). Note 4 splits by segment: Moreld Apply 4,616, Ocean Installer 4,413, Global Maritime 828. |
| EBITDA (reported, IFRS-16) | 2,225 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss | EBITDA subtotal 2,225,089 (NOK thousand). IFRS-16-inflated; the APM reconciliation (p.162) bridges to EBITDA excl IFRS-16 of 1,074,591 after removing 1,150,498 of lease cost. |
| Adjusted EBITDA excl. IFRS 16 | 1,101 | Key figures 2025 / APM (p.162) | Company headline APM: EBITDA excl IFRS-16 1,074,591 + non-recurring transaction cost 26,384 = 1,100,975 (NOK thousand) = ~1,101m ('~NOK 1.1bn'); the figure used for the 0.2x leverage ratio and the company's EBITDA guidance. Margin 11.2%. |
| Depreciation, amortisation and impairment | 1,403 | Statement of profit and loss / Notes 13-15 | Total D&A 1,403,418 (NOK thousand). Of this, IFRS-16 right-of-use depreciation is 1,183,281 (Note 15, p.140) — so PP&E + intangible amortisation is only ~220.1. No impairment recognised. |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 811 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss | Operating result (EBIT) 810,512 (NOK thousand) after D&A and share of associates loss (11,160). Used as the base; adjusted EBIT = 810.5 + 26.4 transaction cost = 836.9. |
| Non-recurring transaction cost (add-back) | 26.38 | Alternative Performance Measures (Adjusted EBITDA excl IFRS 16 bridge) | Non-recurring transaction cost 26,384 (NOK thousand) — Ocean Installer integration, Feb-2025 bond refinancing and June-2025 uplisting costs. One-off; added back to derive clean run-rate EBIT/NOPAT. |
| Income tax expense / nominal rate | -92.63 | Note 20 Taxes (rate reconciliation) | Tax expense 92,626 (NOK thousand) on PBT 377,280 = 24.6% effective. Reconciliation uses 22% nominal Norwegian rate (expected tax 83,002). Confirms ordinary 22% regime, not the 78% petroleum tax. Statutory 22% used for NOPAT. |
| Net profit for the year / EPS | 285 | Statement of profit and loss / Note 29 | Profit of the year 284,654 (NOK thousand), all attributable to parent. Basic & diluted EPS NOK 1.59 (vs -4.05 in 2024, which carried 439.7 FV losses and 172.0 from discontinued ops). |
| Total equity (incl. NCI) | 790 | Consolidated statement of financial position / Note 28, 31 | Total equity 790,482 (NOK thousand): equity attributable to parent 791,104 + non-controlling interests (622). Paid-in capital 683,981 + retained earnings 107,122. |
| Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (bond) | 1,281 | Note 16 Interest-bearing liabilities | Single USD 130m senior secured bond, net book value 1,280,745 (NOK thousand): nominal 1,310,283 less 29,538 unamortised fees. Coupon 9.875%, matures 11 Feb 2030. RCF (200 undrawn) excluded. No other financial debt. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS-16, total) | 1,541 | Note 15 Leasing | Current 745,602 + non-current 795,824 = 1,541,425 (NOK thousand); present value of vessel/office charters. Right-of-use assets 1,476,653 (of which vessels 1,133,656). INCLUDED in invested capital — chartered vessels are core operating assets. |
| Cash and short-term deposits | 1,091 | Consolidated statement of financial position / Note 27 | Cash and short-term deposits 1,090,859 (NOK thousand) at 31 Dec 2025 (down from 1,500,144). 491.9 (~5% of revenue) retained as operational cash for a milestone-billed services model; 599.0 treated as excess and stripped from IC. |
| Net interest-bearing debt (company NIBD) | 1,761 | Alternative Performance Measures (NIBD) | Company NIBD = GIBD 2,851,708 - cash 1,090,859 = 1,760,849 (NOK thousand), INCLUDING IFRS-16 leases. NIBD excl IFRS-16 = 219,424 (the 0.2x leverage-ratio basis). File net_debt 1,731.3 = bond NBV + leases - cash (29.5 lower than company NIBD because company adds back amortised bond fees in GIBD). |
| Order backlog (total contracted) | 5,929 | Note 4 segment reporting (order backlog table) | Total contracted backlog 5,928,866 (NOK thousand): Apply 2,134,666, Ocean Installer 3,320,000, Global Maritime 474,200; of which 4,574,702 for delivery in 2026. Down from 9,941 a year earlier (book-to-bill <1x). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.