Moreld provides offshore energy services — engineering, fabrication, maintenance/modifications and, via Ocean Installer, subsea construction. FY2025 revenue jumped ~38% (acquisition-driven; pro-forma growth mid-single-digit) with ROIC ~22% and economic profit +NOK ~320m against an 11% WACC. It is value-creative and cheap (~12x P/E, ~12.5% NOPAT/EV, 10%+ dividend yield).
But the quality bar is modest: Ocean Installer is ~87% of segment EBITDA (single profit engine), IFRS-16 leases dominate the financials (reported EBITDA ~2x the covenant ex-IFRS-16 figure; owner-FCF after lease principal is far below headline), and backlog shrank to ~NOK 5.9bn with book-to-bill <1x. A cheap, cyclical, concentrated services name, not a compounder.
At ~12x P/E / ~12.5% NOPAT-to-EV with a 10%+ yield, Moreld is cheap for current cash flow; the discount compensates for cyclicality, concentration and lease-heavy accounting.
Base NOK 20 (value, cycle holds); bull NOK 27 if offshore activity + backlog re-accelerate; bear NOK 13 on an offshore downturn exposing the operating leverage.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -9.2% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 22% on capital against a 11% cost of capital (spread +10.6 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 27/share (138% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 27 | +0% | +39% | 30% | Offshore activity + backlog re-accelerate |
| Base | NOK 20 | -8% | +3% | 45% | Value; cycle holds |
| Bear | NOK 13 | -19% | -33% | 25% | Offshore downturn exposes operating leverage |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 20 | — | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.50% | 34 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 57 |
| 10.25% | 30 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 49 |
| 11.00% (base) | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 43 |
| 11.75% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 38 |
| 12.50% | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 33 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 19.36. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Sustained subsea/maintenance demand drives Ocean Installer.
~12x P/E, 10%+ dividend — value with income.
A return to book-to-bill >1x restores visibility.
Low ex-lease net debt; cash supports payout.
Moreld is a cheap, value-creative but concentrated and lease-heavy offshore-services cyclical (~12x P/E, 10%+ yield, ROIC ~22%). HOLD/quality-cyclical; base NOK 20.
Own small for the yield + value; the backlog trend and offshore cycle are the swing factors.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and other operating income | 9,838 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss / Note 4 | Revenue from contracts with customers 9,828,694 + other operating income 9,635 = 9,838,329 (NOK thousand) = 9,838.3m. Prior year 7,136.4 (Ocean Installer only from Q3 2024). Note 4 splits by segment: Moreld Apply 4,616, Ocean Installer 4,413, Global Maritime 828. |
| EBITDA (reported, IFRS-16) | 2,225 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss | EBITDA subtotal 2,225,089 (NOK thousand). IFRS-16-inflated; the APM reconciliation (p.162) bridges to EBITDA excl IFRS-16 of 1,074,591 after removing 1,150,498 of lease cost. |
| Adjusted EBITDA excl. IFRS 16 | 1,101 | Key figures 2025 / APM (p.162) | Company headline APM: EBITDA excl IFRS-16 1,074,591 + non-recurring transaction cost 26,384 = 1,100,975 (NOK thousand) = ~1,101m ('~NOK 1.1bn'); the figure used for the 0.2x leverage ratio and the company's EBITDA guidance. Margin 11.2%. |
| Depreciation, amortisation and impairment | 1,403 | Statement of profit and loss / Notes 13-15 | Total D&A 1,403,418 (NOK thousand). Of this, IFRS-16 right-of-use depreciation is 1,183,281 (Note 15, p.140) — so PP&E + intangible amortisation is only ~220.1. No impairment recognised. |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 811 | Consolidated statement of profit and loss | Operating result (EBIT) 810,512 (NOK thousand) after D&A and share of associates loss (11,160). Used as the base; adjusted EBIT = 810.5 + 26.4 transaction cost = 836.9. |
| Non-recurring transaction cost (add-back) | 26.38 | Alternative Performance Measures (Adjusted EBITDA excl IFRS 16 bridge) | Non-recurring transaction cost 26,384 (NOK thousand) — Ocean Installer integration, Feb-2025 bond refinancing and June-2025 uplisting costs. One-off; added back to derive clean run-rate EBIT/NOPAT. |
| Income tax expense / nominal rate | -92.63 | Note 20 Taxes (rate reconciliation) | Tax expense 92,626 (NOK thousand) on PBT 377,280 = 24.6% effective. Reconciliation uses 22% nominal Norwegian rate (expected tax 83,002). Confirms ordinary 22% regime, not the 78% petroleum tax. Statutory 22% used for NOPAT. |
| Net profit for the year / EPS | 285 | Statement of profit and loss / Note 29 | Profit of the year 284,654 (NOK thousand), all attributable to parent. Basic & diluted EPS NOK 1.59 (vs -4.05 in 2024, which carried 439.7 FV losses and 172.0 from discontinued ops). |
| Total equity (incl. NCI) | 790 | Consolidated statement of financial position / Note 28, 31 | Total equity 790,482 (NOK thousand): equity attributable to parent 791,104 + non-controlling interests (622). Paid-in capital 683,981 + retained earnings 107,122. |
| Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (bond) | 1,281 | Note 16 Interest-bearing liabilities | Single USD 130m senior secured bond, net book value 1,280,745 (NOK thousand): nominal 1,310,283 less 29,538 unamortised fees. Coupon 9.875%, matures 11 Feb 2030. RCF (200 undrawn) excluded. No other financial debt. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS-16, total) | 1,541 | Note 15 Leasing | Current 745,602 + non-current 795,824 = 1,541,425 (NOK thousand); present value of vessel/office charters. Right-of-use assets 1,476,653 (of which vessels 1,133,656). INCLUDED in invested capital — chartered vessels are core operating assets. |
| Cash and short-term deposits | 1,091 | Consolidated statement of financial position / Note 27 | Cash and short-term deposits 1,090,859 (NOK thousand) at 31 Dec 2025 (down from 1,500,144). 491.9 (~5% of revenue) retained as operational cash for a milestone-billed services model; 599.0 treated as excess and stripped from IC. |
| Net interest-bearing debt (company NIBD) | 1,761 | Alternative Performance Measures (NIBD) | Company NIBD = GIBD 2,851,708 - cash 1,090,859 = 1,760,849 (NOK thousand), INCLUDING IFRS-16 leases. NIBD excl IFRS-16 = 219,424 (the 0.2x leverage-ratio basis). File net_debt 1,731.3 = bond NBV + leases - cash (29.5 lower than company NIBD because company adds back amortised bond fees in GIBD). |
| Order backlog (total contracted) | 5,929 | Note 4 segment reporting (order backlog table) | Total contracted backlog 5,928,866 (NOK thousand): Apply 2,134,666, Ocean Installer 3,320,000, Global Maritime 474,200; of which 4,574,702 for delivery in 2026. Down from 9,941 a year earlier (book-to-bill <1x). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.