Kid is a leading Nordic home-textiles and interior retailer (Kid Interiør in Norway, Hemtex in Sweden), a defensive value-for-money format with private-label depth. Adjusted ROIC of ~9% only matches the 8% WACC, leaving thin economic profit (+NOK 29M).
The equity at NOK 128 embeds ~5% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF) against thin returns and a competitive, consumer-cyclical home-retail market — leaving it fully valued relative to through-cycle worth.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value sits well below the NOK 128 price (~5% implied growth) on thin returns. The dividend and steady cash generation support the equity, but there is little valuation cushion.
Base NOK 120 (−6%, modest de-rate); bull NOK 155 (consumer recovery plus Hemtex turnaround and store/online growth); bear NOK 95 (Nordic consumer weakness pressures home-category demand).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.8%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 40/share (33% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 155 | ≥8% | +27% | 30% | Consumer recovery + Hemtex turnaround + omnichannel |
| Base | NOK 120 | ≥8% | -1% | 40% | Modest de-rate; thin spread, full growth |
| Bear | NOK 95 | ≥8% | -22% | 30% | Nordic consumer weakness hits home category |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 123 | — | +1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 73 | 80 | 84 | 90 | 94 | 103 |
| 7.25% | 54 | 57 | 59 | 62 | 63 | 66 |
| 8.00% (base) | 40 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 39 |
| 8.75% | 29 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 19 |
| 9.50% | 20 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 4 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 121.60. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Value-for-money home textiles holds up relatively well in a downturn.
Own-brand penetration supports margins and differentiation.
Solid free cash flow funds an attractive dividend.
A Swedish-business turnaround would lift group returns.
Store-plus-online expansion is the growth lever.
Kid is a decent, defensive home-textiles retailer whose thin economics and full implied growth leave the equity fully valued. HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target NOK 120 (−6%).
A consumer-driven pullback toward the reverse-DCF range, or a Hemtex-led return-on-capital improvement, would improve the risk/reward.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.