Jaeren Sparebank (the bank that trades as JAREN.OL, formerly Klepp Sparebank, on Jaeren in Rogaland — not the Hadeland area) is a small local savings bank that has been gaining share (loans +10.9%), with the listed equity certificate the owners' instrument. It is solidly capitalised (CET1 17.4% consolidated, 22.0% parent; A- from Nordic Credit Rating) with very low losses (FY2025 was a net reversal). But ROE is ~11.3% LTM (FY2025 11.7%; Q1 2026 soft at 7.7% on NIM compression) — only a thin ~1.3pp spread over a 10% cost of equity.
On bank primitives it trades at 1.28x book and ~11.2x earnings with a 5.8% yield (~64% payout). On a normalized 10.5% ROE the Gordon fair value is ~NOK 286 (-22%); on the FY2025 11.7% ROE ~NOK 349 (~at market). The earnings are rate-sensitive (the Q1 NII squeeze is the swing factor) and the dominant practical risk is liquidity — the top-30 owners hold ~89.8% (the two foundations alone ~63%), so the free float is tiny and the screen price can diverge from fair value. Fairly-valued-to-modestly-rich; HOLD, low conviction.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: a normalized 10.5% ROE -> ~NOK 286 (-22%); the FY2025 11.7% ROE -> ~NOK 349 (~at market). Current 1.28x book, ~11.2x earnings, 5.8% yield.
Base NOK 310 (between the two anchors; share gains vs the thin spread); bull NOK 350 if the NIM recovers + share gains continue; bear NOK 270 on NII compression + a de-rate toward the normalized anchor.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 7.4% vs 11.3% currently earned; at a sustained 11.3% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.18× (NOK 644/sh, +88%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 350 | 8% | +2% | 25% | NIM recovers + share gains continue |
| Base | NOK 310 | 7% | -10% | 45% | Between the anchors; share gains vs thin spread |
| Bear | NOK 270 | 6% | -21% | 30% | NII compression + de-rate toward normalized anchor |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 308 | — | -10% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 692 | 1088 | 1483 | 1879 | 2275 | 2670 | 3066 |
| 9.25% | 609 | 957 | 1305 | 1654 | 2002 | 2350 | 2698 |
| 10.00% (base) | 544 | 855 | 1166 | 1476 | 1787 | 2098 | 2409 |
| 10.75% | 491 | 772 | 1053 | 1334 | 1614 | 1895 | 2176 |
| 11.50% | 448 | 704 | 960 | 1216 | 1472 | 1728 | 1984 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 342.85. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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Loans +10.9% — a growing franchise.
CET1 17.4%, A- (NCR); very low losses.
5.8% dividend yield (~64% payout).
A rebound in net interest margin lifts the thin ROE.
Jaeren Sparebank is a small, share-gaining, solidly-capitalised (CET1 17.4%, A-) local Rogaland bank with a 5.8% yield, but a thin ROE-COE spread + a tiny free float leave it fairly-valued-to-modestly-rich at 1.28x book. HOLD, low conviction; base NOK 310.
Own it (if at all) for the share gains + yield; the NIM trend + illiquidity are the cautions. (Ticker JAREN.OL = Jaeren/Rogaland, not Hadeland.)
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income after tax (LTM) | 303 | Hovedtall - resultat (quarterly columns) p.40 | LTM = Q1 2026 52.0 + FY2025 307.2 - Q1 2025 56.3, after tax. Q1 2026 was soft on lower net interest income; FY2025 was a record. |
| Net income after tax (FY2025 anchor) | 307 | Hovedtall per 31.12.2025 p.5 / disponering p.6 | Full-year 2025 profit after tax NOK 307.2m (up from 275.1m in 2024); basis for the FY2025 ROE 11.7% and the NOK 20/EC dividend proposal. |
| Net interest income (LTM) | 403 | Hovedtall - resultat p.40 | Core revenue line. LTM = 95.5 + 409.1 - 101.5. NII margin fell to 1.83% of assets in Q1 2026 from 2.06% FY2025 / 2.15% a year earlier as the Norges Bank policy rate was cut. |
| Net commission income (LTM) | 116 | Hovedtall - resultat p.40 | LTM = 27.8 + 115.5 - 27.6. ~40% comes from Eika Boligkreditt mortgage commissions; balance from insurance, savings and payments. Stable. |
| Total equity (31 Mar 2026) | 2,683 | Hovedtall - balanse p.41 | Latest-quarter equity snapshot is the bank invested-capital and return base. Down from 2,807m at 31 Dec 2025 on the dividend / community distribution accrual. |
| Equity-certificate ratio (egenkapitalbevisbrok, UB) | 0.52 | Noekkeltall egenkapitalbevis - JAREN p.42 | EC holders own a fixed 52.0% brok of equity; the remaining 48.0% is community capital held by two local savings-bank foundations. Stable at ~52% for years. |
| Book value per EC (Q1 2026 / FY2025) | 267 | Noekkeltall egenkapitalbevis - JAREN p.35 | Bokfoert egenkapital per EKB NOK 267.0 at 31 Mar 2026 (281.0 at FY2025). Basis for P/B; reported P/B 1.28x at quarter-end price 343. |
| Earnings per EC (FY2025) | 31 | Noekkeltall egenkapitalbevis - JAREN p.42 | Resultat per EKB NOK 31.0 for FY2025 (up from 27.7 in 2024). LTM EPS/EC ~30.6 (Q1 2026 5.2 + FY 31.0 - Q1 2025 5.6). Used for P/E 11.2x. |
| Cash dividend per EC (FY2025 proposed) | 20 | Forslag - disponering av resultat 2025 p.6 | Proposed cash dividend NOK 20.00/EC (unchanged YoY), payout 64.4% of profit, within the >=60% normal-year policy. Cash dividend total NOK 98.7m. |
| Number of equity certificates | 4,932,523 | Egenkapitalbeviset og eiere p.43 (Q1 2026 p.36) | 4,932,523 EC outstanding (unchanged in Q1 2026). Used for market cap and per-EC metrics. Largest owners are the two local foundations (Sparebankstiftinga Jaeren Time/Ha 50.9%, Klepp 12.3%); top 30 own 89.8% — a thin free float. |
| Common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1, consolidated) | 0.174 | Noekkeltall p.44 / kapital p.24 | Ren kjernekapitaldekning (consolidated) 17.4% at 31 Mar 2026 (18.1% FY2025); morbank (parent) 22.0%. Well above the 15.0% requirement and the bank's 16.0% internal floor. A- rating from Nordic Credit Rating. |
| Cost/income ratio (kostnadsandel) | 0.39 | Noekkeltall p.51 | FY2025 cost/income 39.0% (39.2% in 2024), within the <=40% target. Q1 2026 a seasonally-high 45.7% on lower income and added staff. Lean for a small bank. |
| Loan losses / impairments (FY2025) | -4.9 | Hovedtall - resultat p.47 / noekkeltall p.51 | Net reversal of NOK 4.9m for FY2025 (-0.03% of gross loans ex-EBK) — i.e. a recovery, not a charge. Problem-loan ratio just 0.40% of gross loans incl. EBK. Very low cost of risk; ~3/4 of lending is to retail, the rest mostly low-risk agriculture. |
| Return on equity (FY2025) | 0.117 | Noekkeltall p.51 / strategiske maaltall p.12 | FY2025 ROE 11.7% (10.9% in 2024), above the >=11% target. Five-year history 7.5/8.5/10.1/10.9/11.7% (2021-2025) — a clear improving trend. Q1 2026 soft at 7.7%. |
| EC market price (Q1 2026 quarter-end) | 389 | Noekkeltall egenkapitalbevis - JAREN p.42 (Q1 2026 343.0 p.35) | FY2025 year-end EC price NOK 388.95 (market cap 1,919m); 343.0 at 31 Mar 2026; live verified NOK 342.85 (09 Jun 2026) used for current multiples. 52-week range 330.50-390.00. |
| Total assets (forvaltningskapital, FY2025) | 20,936 | Hovedtall - balanse p.48 | Total assets NOK 20,936m at 31 Dec 2025 (21,203m at Q1 2026); business capital incl. off-balance EBK mortgages NOK 29,428m. ROA FY2025 1.47%. Loan growth incl. EBK ~10.9% — gaining share in the Jaeren home market. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.