Boozt runs Nordic online fashion and lifestyle marketplaces (Boozt.com, Booztlet) with a proprietary logistics/automation backbone. Unlike most e-commerce, it is genuinely profitable and capital-efficient: adjusted ROIC of 10.3% beats the 8% WACC and economic profit is positive (+SEK 74M), with a near-net-cash balance sheet.
The reverse-DCF implies the SEK 126 price embeds ~6.5% perpetual growth — achievable for a share-gaining online platform but dependent on Nordic consumer spending and continued margin discipline. So the equity is roughly fairly valued, with execution and the consumer cycle as the swing factors.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT of SEK 330M and bridging through modest net debt (SEK 474M), the reverse-DCF fair value runs below the SEK 126 price at GDP growth but converges as growth rises — consistent with a market pricing ~6.5% perpetual growth. For a profitable, share-gaining e-commerce platform that is defensible, hence roughly fair rather than cheap.
Base SEK 130 (flat-to-modest); bull SEK 175 (sustained share gains + margin expansion from automation scale); bear SEK 90 (Nordic consumer weakness + competitive discounting compress margins).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~9.8%, limited by ROIC 10% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 65/share (47% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 175 | ≥10% | +27% | 35% | Share gains + automation-led margin expansion |
| Base | SEK 130 | ≥10% | -6% | 40% | Roughly fair; price embeds ~6.5% growth |
| Bear | SEK 90 | ≥10% | -35% | 25% | Nordic consumer weakness + competitive discounting |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 136 | — | -2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 90 | 97 | 101 | 109 | 114 | 128 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 80 | 83 | 88 | 92 | 100 |
| 8.00% (base) | 65 | 68 | 70 | 73 | 75 | 80 |
| 8.75% | 56 | 59 | 60 | 62 | 63 | 65 |
| 9.50% | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 53 | 54 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 138.10. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Genuine positive economic profit and >WACC returns — rare in online retail and the core of the thesis.
Proprietary fulfilment automation lowers unit costs and supports margin as volumes scale.
Continued share capture in Nordic online fashion drives above-market growth.
Low leverage gives resilience and reinvestment flexibility.
Growth of higher-margin marketplace and own-brand revenue lifts blended profitability.
Boozt is a genuinely profitable, capital-efficient Nordic e-commerce platform at a roughly fair price. We rate it HOLD with a slight positive tilt, medium conviction; base target SEK 130 (flat-to-modest).
A consumer-led pullback toward the SEK 90–100s, where the >WACC returns and net-cash balance sheet provide support, would be the better entry; evidence of margin expansion would justify an upgrade.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.