AutoStore is the pioneer and leader in cube-storage automated storage-and-retrieval (AS/RS) systems for warehouses — a high-margin (≈30% EBIT), IP-rich robotics franchise with a large installed base and recurring service/parts. Adjusted ROIC of ~8.5% and +NOK 85M economic profit reflect a quality but order-cyclical business.
The equity at NOK 13 embeds ~7.7% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), demanding given that warehouse-automation order intake is cyclical and digesting after the 2021–22 e-commerce-warehouse boom, with competition (Ocado disputes, AutoStore's own IP litigation history) and macro-sensitive capex.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value sits ~NOK 5 across scenarios — well below the NOK 13 price (~7.7% implied growth), i.e. the market prices a sustained automation-capex upcycle. The high margins support a premium, but order cyclicality makes the equity fully valued.
Base NOK 12 (−9%); bull NOK 18 (automation-capex demand reaccelerates + installed-base/service growth); bear NOK 8 (order intake stays soft as warehouse capex digests).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~8.1%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 5/share (45% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 18 | ≥8% | +58% | 30% | Automation-capex demand reaccelerates + service |
| Base | NOK 12 | ≥8% | +6% | 40% | Full: ~7.7% implied growth, order-cyclical |
| Bear | NOK 8 | ≥8% | -30% | 30% | Soft order intake as warehouse capex digests |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 13 | — | +11% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 7.25% | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 8.00% (base) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 8.75% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9.50% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 11.36. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
The pioneer/leader in cube-storage AS/RS with a strong patent position.
≈30% EBIT margins reflect IP-rich, high-value robotics.
A growing installed base generates recurring service/parts revenue.
Labour scarcity and e-commerce drive long-run warehouse-automation demand.
A systems-integrator partner model extends reach.
AutoStore is a high-margin warehouse-automation leader priced for a sustained capex upcycle against cyclical order intake. HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target NOK 12 (−9%).
An automation-demand reacceleration is the upside; soft order intake as warehouse capex digests is the principal risk.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.