Aurskog Sparebank is a small local savings bank in eastern Norway, with the listed equity certificate representing a 36.5% ownership fraction (which fell to 33.6% at Q1 2026 as the foundation retained more 2025 profit, diluting the EC's relative claim). It is fortress-capitalised (CET1 19.0% consolidated, ~3.3-3.8pp above requirement) with a 6.7% dividend yield (88% payout), but it is a marginal value creator: ROE ~11.2% (FY2025) / ~10.9% (LTM) barely beats a 10% cost of equity — residual income is only +NOK 1.6m.
On bank primitives it trades at 1.39x book and ~13.6x earnings. On a through-cycle ~10% ROE the Gordon fair P/B is ~1.14x -> ~NOK 210 (-18%), so the EC trades ~18% above the anchor — the ~1pp ROE-COE spread does not justify 1.4x book. The attraction is the 6.7% yield off a fortress balance sheet; the binding constraints are the thin value creation, the falling EC fraction, and very thin liquidity (~NOK 1.18bn cap, concentrated holders). Fairly-to-fully valued, modestly rich. HOLD, low conviction.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: a through-cycle ~10% ROE -> ~1.14x -> ~NOK 210 (-18%). Current 1.39x book, ~13.6x earnings, 6.7% yield — modestly rich for the return.
Base NOK 230 (between the anchor and the current price; yield support); bull NOK 270 if ROE holds ~11%+ and the EC fraction stabilizes; bear NOK 200 on a de-rate toward the Gordon anchor.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 6.2% vs 10.1% currently earned; at a sustained 10.1% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.02× (NOK 561/sh, +120%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 270 | 6% | +6% | 25% | ROE holds ~11%+; EC fraction stabilizes |
| Base | NOK 230 | 6% | -10% | 45% | Between the anchor and price; yield support |
| Bear | NOK 200 | 6% | -22% | 30% | De-rate toward the Gordon anchor |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 231 | — | -9% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 703 | 1105 | 1507 | 1909 | 2311 | 2713 | 3115 |
| 9.25% | 619 | 973 | 1326 | 1680 | 2034 | 2388 | 2741 |
| 10.00% (base) | 553 | 868 | 1184 | 1500 | 1816 | 2132 | 2448 |
| 10.75% | 499 | 784 | 1070 | 1355 | 1640 | 1925 | 2211 |
| 11.50% | 455 | 715 | 975 | 1235 | 1495 | 1756 | 2016 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 255.00. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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CET1 19.0% consolidated — ample buffer.
6.7% dividend yield (88% payout).
Entrenched relationships in the Aurskog area.
Low loan losses.
Aurskog Sparebank is a fortress-capitalised (CET1 19.0%) small Norwegian savings bank with a 6.7% yield, but a marginal value creator (RI +NOK 1.6m) trading ~18% above its through-cycle Gordon anchor at 1.39x book, very thinly traded. HOLD, low conviction; base NOK 230.
Own it (if at all) for the yield off fortress capital; the thin returns + falling EC fraction + illiquidity cap the case.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income after tax (FY2025) | 260 | Totalresultat (income statement) p.29 | Whole-bank profit after tax NOK 259,862k. LTM net income 258.26 = 51.02 + 259.86 - 52.62. |
| Net interest income (FY2025) | 365 | Totalresultat p.29 (Netto rente- og kredittprovisjonsinntekter) | Core bank revenue NOK 365,448k; -2.6% YoY (375,337) as more mortgage growth was placed with Eika Boligkreditt off balance. LTM 365.58. |
| Net commission income (FY2025) | 78.32 | Totalresultat p.29 | Provisjonsinntekter 87,757 less provisjonskostnader 9,442 = NOK 78,315k; up sharply (62,442 prior) on EBK volume commissions. |
| Profit after tax (Q1 2026) | 51.02 | Resultatregnskap (interim income statement) p.9 | Q1 2026 net income NOK 51,021k vs 52,623k Q1 2025; used to roll the LTM window. |
| Total equity (31.12.2025) | 2,555 | Balanse (balance sheet) p.30 (Sum egenkapital) | Whole-bank equity NOK 2,554,770k = EC capital 462.26 + premium/comp 92.05 + hybrid 225.00 + Grunnfondet 1,303.81 + equalisation 144.26 + other 327.39. Bank invested-capital base. |
| Hybrid (AT1 / fondsobligasjon) capital | 225 | Balanse p.30 (Fondsobligasjonskapital) | AT1 hybrid NOK 225,000k sits INSIDE IFRS equity for this bank; stripped to reach common equity ex hybrid 2,329.77 for ROE/BVPS per the bank's own definition. |
| Equity-certificate ownership fraction (eierbrokt, FY2025) | 0.365 | Note 38 Egenkapitalbevis p.79 | EC holders' economic share of equity/profit = 36.48% (avg for the 2025 distribution; 36.35% at 31.12.2025). The rest accrues to the self-owned primary-capital foundation. Fell to 33.60% at 31.03.2026. |
| EC count | 4,622,601 | Note 38 Egenkapitalbevis p.79 | 4,622,601 equity certificates outstanding, unchanged YoY; used for per-EC metrics and market cap. |
| Book value per EC (FY2025) | 184 | Nokkeltall - Bokfort egenkapital pr egenkapitalbevis p.85 | (Sum equity 2,554.77 - hybrid 225.00) x eierbrokt 36.48% / 4,622,601 EC = NOK 183.88. P/B base. Q1 2026 fell to 166.57 on the dividend + lower eierbrokt. |
| EPS per EC (FY2025) | 19.36 | Totalresultat p.29 / Note 38 | Available dividend / earnings per EC NOK 19.36 (after hybrid coupon, x eierbrokt). LTM EPS 18.73 = 3.49 + 19.36 - 4.12. No options -> diluted = basic. |
| CET1 ratio consolidated (31.12.2025) | 0.19 | Ansvarlig kapital / kapitaldekning p.49 | Common equity tier 1 19.0% consolidated (21.2% parent/morbank), vs 17.5% prior year. Requirement 15.2% consolidated -> ~3.8pp surplus. Total capital 24.1% consolidated. |
| CET1 ratio consolidated (Q1 2026) | 0.185 | Nokkeltall - Ren kjernekapitaldekning konsolidert p.11 | CET1 slipped to 18.5% consolidated at 31.03.2026 (21.1% parent) — still ~3.3pp above the 15.2% requirement. Strong capitalisation. |
| Cost/income ratio (FY2025) | 0.347 | Hovedtall / Kostnadsprosent p.7 | Cost ratio 34.7% FY2025 (32.9% prior; LTM Q1 2026 35.6%). Lean for a small bank but creeping up on personnel cost growth (+16.8% YoY). |
| Loan-loss charge (FY2025) | 7.03 | Totalresultat p.29 (Kredittap) | Credit losses NOK 7,032k, only ~0.04% of gross loans; down from 14,821k. Low cost of risk; loans well-secured on residential property. |
| Non-performing-loan ratio (FY2025) | 0.004 | Hovedtall / Misligholdsandel p.7 | Gross NPLs 0.4% of gross loans (0.5% prior); rose to 0.6% at Q1 2026. Low and well-secured, but trending up modestly. |
| Dividend per EC (FY2025) | 17 | Note 38 (kontantutbytte pr egenkapitalbevis) p.79 | Cash dividend NOK 17.00 per EC for FY2025 (15.00 FY2024), paid 8 Apr 2026; ~88% of per-EC profit. Yield 6.7% on NOK 255. |
| Share price at year-end / P-B (FY2025) | 270 | Nokkeltall - Borskurs / P/B p.85 | Report's own 31.12.2025 EC close NOK 270.15 -> P/B 1.47x, P/E 13.95x. Current verified price NOK 255.00 (9 Jun 2026) used for live multiples (P/B 1.39x). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.