Alma Media has transformed from print into a digital-first group of marketplaces (recruitment, housing, autos) and digital-services/media businesses, with high-margin, recurring marketplace economics. Adjusted ROIC of 16.2%, +€31M economic profit and a quality score of 71 reflect a genuine digital compounder.
The equity at €13.5 embeds ~4.4% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), reasonable for the marketplace mix but offering no discount. Quality at a full price, with cyclicality in recruitment/classified volumes.
With 16% ROIC the perpetuity floor (~€9–11) understates value; the price embeds ~4.4% growth — fair for a digital-marketplace franchise. Own for the recurring, high-margin economics.
Base €13.5 (flat); bull €16 (marketplace volume/pricing growth and margin expansion); bear €10.5 (recruitment/classified cyclicality in a Finnish downturn).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 8.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 18% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +9.9 pp); the no-growth value is €10/share (76% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €16 | +14% | +17% | 30% | Marketplace volume/pricing growth + margin |
| Base | €14 | +8% | -1% | 45% | Fair: ~4.4% implied growth |
| Bear | €10 | +0% | -23% | 25% | Recruitment/classified cyclicality |
| Prob-weighted | €14 | — | -1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 25 |
| 7.25% | 12 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 20 |
| 8.00% (base) | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| 8.75% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| 9.50% | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €13.70. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
High-margin, recurring digital-marketplace revenue with network effects.
A completed print-to-digital shift underpins durable margins.
Leading verticals (recruitment, housing, autos) support pricing.
High returns and strong cash conversion fund dividends and bolt-ons.
Disciplined digital-services acquisitions add growth.
Alma Media is a quality digital-marketplace franchise at a full price. HOLD, medium conviction; base target €13.5 (flat) — accumulate on recruitment-cycle weakness.
A Finnish-downturn pullback toward the low-€10s, near the perpetuity floor, would offer a better entry.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.