AcadeMedia is Northern Europe's largest independent education provider — preschools, compulsory and upper-secondary schools, and adult/vocational education across Sweden, Norway, Germany and the Netherlands. It is defensive (largely publicly-funded) and cash-generative (14% free-cash yield), but adjusted ROIC of 7.7% reads below the 8% WACC — partly because IFRS-16 capitalises a large property-lease base, inflating invested capital.
The equity at SEK 105 embeds ~9.5% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF, ~42% below). Defensive funding and cash flow are the support; the Swedish free-school political debate and lease-heavy economics are the cautions.
Reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 55–61 across scenarios — below the SEK 105 price; the lease-heavy IC depresses the reported ROIC and EP. The defensive, publicly-funded cash flows support a premium to the harsh read.
Base SEK 105 (flat); bull SEK 130 (enrolment growth + margin + benign regulation); bear SEK 80 (adverse Swedish free-school regulation or funding pressure).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~6.9%, limited by ROIC 7% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 47/share (48% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 130 | ≥7% | +32% | 30% | Enrolment growth + margin + benign regulation |
| Base | SEK 105 | ≥7% | +6% | 45% | Defensive cash flows; lease-heavy reported returns |
| Bear | SEK 80 | ≥7% | -19% | 25% | Adverse Swedish free-school regulation |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 106 | — | +8% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 109 | 116 | 121 | 126 | 129 | 133 |
| 7.25% | 74 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 65 |
| 8.00% (base) | 47 | 46 | 44 | 39 | 34 | 17 |
| 8.75% | 27 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 4 | -18 |
| 9.50% | 12 | 5 | 0 | -10 | -19 | -46 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 98.80. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Largely tax-funded education demand is recession-resilient.
The largest independent provider — scale and quality advantages.
Population and enrolment growth underpin demand.
14% free-cash yield supports distributions/reinvestment.
Growth in Germany/Netherlands diversifies regulatory exposure.
AcadeMedia is a defensive, cash-generative education leader whose reported sub-WACC returns reflect a lease-heavy base, under a Swedish-regulation overhang. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 105 (flat).
Enrolment growth plus benign regulation is the upside; adverse Swedish free-school regulation is the principal risk.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.