Nordea is the largest Nordic universal bank, operating across Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark with pan-Nordic scale, a large deposit/mortgage base and leading positions. It earns a high ROE ~16% (LTM; FY2025 15.5%, normalized ~15%; ROTCE ~18.8%) at a ~45% cost/income ratio with near-zero credit losses, CET1 15.7% — residual income +EUR 1.9bn over a 10% cost of equity, a ~6pp value-creative spread. Capital return is exceptional: a 6% dividend plus very large buybacks (EUR ~900m FY2025, more in 2026) plus a planned mid-year dividend — a double-digit total shareholder yield.
On bank primitives it trades at 1.80x book, 2.09x tangible and 11.2x earnings. On a normalized 15% ROE the Gordon fair P/B implies ~EUR 15.2 (-4.6%); on the FY2025 ROE ~EUR 15.8 (~in line). So at ~EUR 16 it sits ~5% above the normalized anchor with P/TBV >2x — high quality + outstanding capital return, but limited margin of safety. Q1 2026 IFRS ROE (13.4%) was depressed by EUR 190m of 2030-strategy restructuring (underlying ~15.4%). HOLD.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: a normalized 15% ROE -> ~EUR 15.2 (-4.6%); the FY2025 15.5% ROE -> ~EUR 15.8. Current 1.80x book, 2.09x tangible, 11.2x earnings, 6% yield + buybacks.
Base EUR 15.5 (~normalized anchor; capital return is the return); bull EUR 18 if ROE holds ~16%+ + the huge buyback continues; bear EUR 12.5 on NII compression / a Nordic credit cycle + a de-rate.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 17.4% vs 16.1% currently earned; at a sustained 16.1% ROE the warranted P/B is 1.87× (SEK 158/sh, -9%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 172 | 17% | -1% | 30% | ROE holds ~16%+; huge buyback continues |
| Base | SEK 148 | 15% | -15% | 45% | ~Normalized anchor; capital return is the return |
| Bear | SEK 119 | 13% | -32% | 25% | NII compression / Nordic credit cycle + de-rate |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 148 | — | -15% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 107 | 169 | 230 | 292 | 353 | 414 | 476 |
| 9.25% | 95 | 149 | 203 | 257 | 311 | 365 | 419 |
| 10.00% (base) | 84 | 133 | 181 | 229 | 277 | 326 | 374 |
| 10.75% | 76 | 120 | 163 | 207 | 251 | 294 | 338 |
| 11.50% | 70 | 109 | 149 | 189 | 228 | 268 | 308 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 174.30. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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6% dividend + very large buybacks + a planned mid-year dividend = double-digit total yield.
Leading positions across four Nordic markets; ~45% cost/income.
ROE ~16% (ROTCE ~18.8%) — value-creative (+EUR 1.9bn residual income).
CET1 15.7%, near-zero cost of risk.
Nordea is the largest, high-ROE (~16%), fortress-capitalised Nordic universal bank with an exceptional double-digit total shareholder yield — but at 1.80x book / 2.09x tangible it sits ~5% above its normalized-ROE Gordon anchor. HOLD; base EUR 15.5.
Own it for the capital return + scale quality; the upside from here is the yield + buyback, not multiple re-rating.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit to shareholders (FY2025) | 4,840 | Group quarterly/full-year summary | FY2025 net profit for the period EUR 4,840m (vs 5,059m FY2024, -4%). Anchor for the LTM build. |
| Net profit to shareholders (LTM Q1 2026) | 4,850 | Group income statement summary | LTM = Q1 2026 1,244 + FY2025 4,840 - Q1 2025 1,234 = 4,850. Fully attributable to common (no AT1 in equity, no material NCI). |
| Net interest income (LTM) | 7,097 | Group income statement summary | Core bank revenue. LTM = 1,759 + 7,167 - 1,829 = 7,097. NII down ~4-5% YoY on policy-rate cuts; NIM 1.57%. |
| Net fee and commission income (LTM) | 3,298 | Group income statement summary | Second core revenue line. LTM = 842 + 3,249 - 793 = 3,298. Fees +6% YoY in Q1 2026 on higher AuM (EUR 464bn) and activity. |
| Total operating income (LTM) | 11,679 | Group income statement summary | LTM = 2,910 + 11,743 - 2,974 = 11,679. Resilient despite NII headwind, helped by fees; net fair value result weak in Q1 (markets/Middle East). |
| Operating profit (LTM) | 6,343 | Group income statement summary | Pre-tax profitability proxy for a bank. LTM = 1,634 + 6,316 - 1,607 = 6,343. Q1 2026 op profit boosted by a +99 loan-loss reversal, offset by EUR 190m restructuring in costs. |
| Total common equity (31 Mar 2026) | 30,092 | Balance sheet - Group | Latest-quarter equity snapshot is the bank invested-capital base. Down from 32,419 at 31 Dec 2025 on the 2025 dividend accrual and buybacks. No AT1 holders line (redeemed 2024); fully common equity. |
| Total equity (31 Dec 2025) | 32,419 | Balance sheet - Group | FY2025 year-end equity. AT1 holders line is '-' (zero) at year-end vs 750 a year earlier, confirming the AT1 redemption; reported equity is clean common equity. |
| Intangible assets (31 Mar 2026) | 4,163 | Balance sheet - Group, Assets | Total intangibles EUR 4,163m deducted from common equity to reach tangible common equity 25,929 for ROTCE / P-TBV. Goodwill/other split not disclosed in interim report (Annual Report Note only). |
| Return on equity (FY2025, reported) | 0.155 | Ratios and key figures - Group | Reported full-year RoE (with amortised regulatory fees) 15.5%; ROTE 17.8%. Bank return measure; supports normalized through-cycle 15.0% for the Gordon anchor. |
| Return on equity (Q1 2026) | 0.154 | Summary of the quarter / Ratios (excl. items affecting comparability) | Underlying Q1 2026 RoE 15.4% (vs 15.7% a year ago). IFRS reported RoE INCLUDING items was 13.4% due to EUR 190m restructuring costs — earnings-quality caveat noted. |
| Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1) | 0.157 | Summary of the quarter / capital | Regulatory capital strength. CET1 15.7% (Q1 2026 and FY2025), 1.9pp above the current regulatory requirement; Tier 1 17.7%, total capital ratio 20.4%. |
| Cost-to-income ratio (Q1 2026) | 0.455 | Summary of the quarter / Ratios | C/I 45.5% (excl. regulatory fees, ex-items) Q1 2026 vs 43.7% a year ago; FY2025 45.0%. Targeting ~45% in 2026 and 40-42% by 2030. Higher than Handelsbanken's ~40% but competitive for a universal bank. |
| Net loan loss ratio (Q1 2026) | -0.001 | Ratios and key figures - Group | Net loan loss ratio -10bp in Q1 2026 (a NET REVERSAL) driven by the EUR 160m release of the COVID management-judgement buffer; FY2025 +1bp. Ex-release Q1 cost of risk was +6bp. Strong credit quality, long-term expectation ~10bp. |
| Shares registered / own shares (31 Mar 2026) | 3,397 | Statement of changes in equity, footnote 1 | Total shares registered 3,412m less 15.1m own shares = 3,396.9m outstanding; used for BVPS, P/B, P/E and market cap. Share count falling on buybacks (3,491m a year earlier). |
| Equity per share (31 Mar 2026) | 8.85 | Ratios and key figures - Group (incl. items affecting comparability) | Report's stated equity per share EUR 8.85 (31 Mar 2026); matches our computed BVPS 8.859 (equity 30,092 / 3,396.9m shares). Confirms the equity and share-count inputs. |
| Dividend per share FY2025 | 0.96 | Summary of the quarter / Board proposal | Ordinary dividend EUR 0.96/share for 2025 (vs 0.94 for 2024), paid April 2026; 60-70% payout policy. Plus a planned mid-year 2026 dividend (~50% of H1 net profit, max EUR 3bn). |
| Share buyback (FY2025) | 896 | Statement of changes in equity, footnote 2 | Buyback EUR 896m in FY2025 (vs 372m in 2024) and EUR 380m in Q1 2026, recorded as a reduction in retained earnings. EUR 500m programme launched Q4 2025, completed 20 April 2026. Very large capital return on top of the dividend. |
| Diluted EPS (LTM rolling 12m) | 1.42 | Ratios and key figures - Group (excl. items) | Report's own rolling-12m underlying EPS EUR 1.42 (reported IFRS 1.37); matches our computed LTM EPS 1.43 (net profit 4,850 / 3,396.9m shares). Drives P/E ~11.2x. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.