DOF Group owns and operates a large offshore fleet (subsea/IMR construction support + PSV/AHTS), reporting in USD while listing in NOK. FY2025 revenue ~USD 1.9bn (+35%), with a strong USD 5.1bn backlog and restarted dividend. On adjusted figures ROIC is ~12% and economic profit +USD ~32m against an 11% WACC — value-creative, but only just.
The cheapness (~6.8x P/E, ~8x EV/EBIT, 1.3x EV/IC) is real but the quality of it is suspect: returns are earned near a cyclical peak (87% Q4 utilization), the year carries a +USD 131m unrealized FX gain, and the effective tonnage-tax rate (~8%) flatters net income; on statutory tax EP turns marginal. A constructive deep-value cyclical, not a high-conviction compounder.
At ~6.8x P/E / ~8x EV/EBIT / 1.3x EV/IC with a USD 5.1bn backlog, DOF is cheap — but the multiple reflects cyclical-peak, FX- and tax-flattered earnings.
Base USD 13 (deep value, backlog support); bull USD 19 if the offshore up-cycle extends and deleveraging continues; bear USD 9 on an offshore downturn + the FX/tax tailwinds reversing.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~11.4%, limited by ROIC 12% ≈ WACC 11%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 101/share (82% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 181 | ≥11% | +47% | 30% | Offshore up-cycle extends; deleveraging continues |
| Base | NOK 124 | ≥11% | +1% | 40% | Deep value; backlog support |
| Bear | NOK 86 | -11% | -30% | 30% | Offshore downturn; FX/tax tailwinds reverse |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 130 | — | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.50% | 129 | 136 | 141 | 147 | 152 | 161 |
| 10.25% | 114 | 119 | 122 | 126 | 129 | 133 |
| 11.00% (base) | 101 | 105 | 107 | 109 | 110 | 111 |
| 11.75% | 91 | 93 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 92 |
| 12.50% | 82 | 83 | 83 | 82 | 81 | 76 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 123.10. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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USD 5.1bn (6.9bn incl post-balance) underpins revenue visibility.
High utilization + firm dayrates drive current cash flow.
Cash flow cuts net debt and funds the restarted dividend.
~6.8x P/E / 1.3x EV/IC — value if returns hold.
DOF Group is a cheap, backlog-rich offshore-services cyclical (~6.8x P/E) whose ROIC ~12% just clears WACC on FX- and tax-flattered, cyclical-peak earnings. HOLD, low conviction; base USD 13.
Deep value with real risk; size small and watch utilization, dayrates and the FX/tax normalization.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating revenue | 1,871 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (financial reporting) / Note 4 | Operating revenue (financial-reporting / IFRS) FY2025 = 1,871 (prior year 1,385). The management-reporting (proportionate JV) figure is 2,014; the financial-reporting figure is used throughout this file for balance-sheet consistency. |
| EBITDA | 718 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (financial reporting) | Operating profit before depreciation and impairment (EBITDA), financial-reporting basis, FY2025 = 718 (prior year 475). Management-reporting EBITDA is 796. EBITDA margin 38%. |
| Depreciation | -203 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (financial reporting) / Note 6 | Depreciation FY2025 = -203 (prior year -160), reflecting the larger owned fleet (incl. DOF Denmark vessels consolidated from 2025). This is the large vessel-depreciation line expected for an asset-heavy owner. |
| Impairment / reversal of impairment | 7 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss / Note 6 | Net REVERSAL of vessel impairment +7 for FY2025 (prior year +98). Treated as non-operating, non-recurring and STRIPPED from adjusted EBIT (reduces adjusted EBIT). |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 523 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (financial reporting) | Operating profit (EBIT), financial-reporting basis, FY2025 = 523 (prior year 413). Management-reporting EBIT is 562. Adjusted EBIT used = 523 - 15 disposal gain - 7 impairment reversal = 501. |
| Net gain on sale of tangible assets | 15 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss | Net gain on sale of tangible assets (vessels) FY2025 = +15 (prior year +2), included in EBITDA/EBIT. Lumpy and non-operating, so removed from adjusted EBIT. |
| Net financial costs | -16 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss | Net financial costs FY2025 = -16 (prior year -229). Components: financial income +35, financial costs -131, net realised currency loss -53, net UNREALISED currency GAIN +131, derivatives +2. The +131 unrealised FX gain materially reduced net financial costs and flattered net income. |
| Profit before taxes / Taxes / Profit for the period | 467 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss | Profit before taxes 507; taxes -40 (effective 7.9%, tonnage-tax driven); profit for the period 467, all to controlling interest (NCI=0). EPS 1.89 / diluted 1.89. |
| Tangible assets (vessels / PP&E) | 2,427 | Consolidated Statement of Balance Sheet / Note 6 | Tangible assets (the offshore fleet + subsea equipment) at 31.12.2025 = 2,427 (prior year 2,238). The core operating asset, deliberately retained in invested capital. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 496 | Consolidated Statement of Balance Sheet / Note 9 | Cash and cash equivalents 31.12.2025 = 496 (restricted 11 + unrestricted 485; prior year 495). ~56 (3% of revenue) retained as operational cash; 439.9 treated as excess and stripped from IC. |
| Interest-bearing debt (bond + credit institutions + leases) | 1,698 | Consolidated Statement of Balance Sheet / Note 10, 11 | Bond loan 148 + debt to credit institutions non-current 1,275 + lease liabilities non-current 67 + current portion debt to credit institutions 165 + current portion lease liabilities 43 = 1,698 total interest-bearing debt. Leases are vessel-related ROU and are kept in IC. |
| Net interest-bearing debt (company-defined) | 1,035 | Supplemental information / Performance-measure definitions (Note 14 area) | Company financial-reporting NIBD = 1,035 (incl. IFRS 16); excl. IFRS 16 = 992. Company definition nets interest-bearing receivables and cash against IB debt, which is why it is below the simple gross-debt-less-cash figure of 1,202. Management-reporting (proportionate) NIBD is 1,321. Leverage NIBD/LTM EBITDA 1.7x. |
| Total equity | 2,044 | Consolidated Statement of Balance Sheet | Total equity 31.12.2025 = 2,044 (share capital 59 + other equity 1,985; prior year 1,772). Equity ratio 49%. All attributable to controlling interest; NCI = 0. OCI movement in the year +38 netted out for equity_ex_oci. |
| Shares outstanding / share capital | 246 | Note 14 Share capital and share information | Share capital NOK 615,696,637.50 divided into 246,278,655 shares; outstanding and weighted-average shares for FY2025 = 246,278,655. Used with NOK 122.10 listing price (USD 12.9343 at USDNOK 9.44) for market cap. |
| Firm backlog | 5,100 | Highlights / Directors' report | Firm backlog at 31 December 2025 = USD 5.1bn (prior year 3.25bn); ~USD 4bn new backlog added in 2025. Q1 2026: firm backlog USD 4.9bn, USD 6.9bn incl. post-balance contracts. Underpins 2026 EBITDA guidance USD 830-880m. |
| Q1 2026 interim (trajectory) | 502 | Highlights / Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss | Q1 2026 (management-reporting): operating income 502, EBITDA 175, EBIT 105, profit after tax 69; financial-reporting Q1 2026: revenue 475, EBITDA 153, EBIT 94, PBT 97, tax -28, profit 69. Utilisation 82%. Equity 2,048; tangible assets 2,543; cash 334; financial-reporting NIBD 1,265 (mgmt-reporting 1,536). Dividend USD 0.37/share declared. Confirms continued cyclical-up trajectory. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.