Sleep Cycle is the leading sleep tracking app (20M+ downloads; 4.8/5.0 App Store rating) that uses smartphone sensors (microphone, accelerometer) to track sleep stages, trigger wake-up at optimal sleep phase, and deliver personalized sleep insights. FY2025 revenue SEK 478M (+18% YoY from SEK 405M FY2024); adj NOPAT SEK 40.6M; EBIT margin 10.9%. The business model is pure subscription SaaS: iOS + Android apps with monthly/annual subscriptions (~$50/year annual premium). The moat: 5+ years of personalized sleep history per long-term subscriber creates meaningful switching cost (data ownership, habit formation), supported by the global #1 position in sleep tracking apps.
IC = equity (-SEK 5M) + debt SEK 30M - cash SEK 60M = -SEK 35M (negative: net cash exceeds equity). ROIC = -116% (arithmetic, not economically meaningful for negative IC). EP = adj NOPAT SEK 40.6M - WACC 12% × (-SEK 35M) = +SEK 44.8M (negative IC adds to EP). The company is genuinely profitable and highly capital-efficient. At EV/adj EBIT 9.0x with 18% revenue growth, BUY.
EV ~SEK 468M (MC SEK 498M - net cash SEK 30M). EV/adj EBIT 9.0x on SEK 52M EBIT. P/sales 1.04x. At 12% revenue CAGR (slowing from 18%) and 12-14% EBIT margin: EBIT ~SEK 80M in 3 years → EV/fwd EBIT ~6x — cheap for a profitable SaaS. Base SEK 24 (12x adj EBIT SEK 52M + net cash SEK 30M / 27.7M shares = SEK 23.6); bull SEK 35 (15x fwd EBIT ~SEK 68M + B2B optionality); bear SEK 12 (8x bear + small-cap de-rating).
Reverse-DCF panel unavailable: non-positive ic.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 35 | +94% | 35% | B2B health platform + margin expansion; EV/fwd EBIT re-rates to 15x |
| Base | SEK 24 | +33% | 45% | 12% CAGR; margins expand toward 14%; EV/EBIT 12x |
| Bear | SEK 12 | -33% | 20% | Competition accelerates + growth decelerates + small-cap de-rating |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 25 | +41% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
+18% FY2025; subscription SaaS with high retention and annual plan conversion.
Net cash, minimal capex; economics improve with scale.
Potential B2B (corporate wellness, health insurers) and AI sleep coaching revenue expansion.
5+ years of personalized sleep data per user; App Store dominance in sleep category.
Sleep Cycle is a profitable, capital-light mobile SaaS with +18% revenue growth at EV/adj EBIT 9.0x — cheap for the growth profile. The data moat and subscription model quality support BUY. Base SEK 24.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 478 | Consolidated Income Statement | Revenue SEK 478M (+18% YoY). Subscription growth driven by B2C premium + B2B corporate wellness |
| GAAP EBIT | 52 | Consolidated Income Statement | First full-year profitable EBIT SEK 52M (10.9% margin). Operating leverage as fixed costs stay low |
| Net invested capital | -35 | Balance Sheet | IC negative (-SEK 35M) from accumulated losses + net cash. Asset-light app business |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.