SinterCast licenses process-control technology for Compacted Graphite Iron and earns per-ton production fees + sampling-cup sales as CGI volumes (heavy-duty/commercial-vehicle + industrial engine/component) run. The model is excellent: ~90% recurring, ~70% gross margin, 30%+ EBIT margin and ROIC ~35% with economic profit positive even in a trough — debt-free, asset-light, royalty-like.
FY2025 was a cyclical-trough volume year (revenue -20%). The catalyst is real (March 2026 was the first YoY-positive production month in 15; new high-volume CV programs ramp late-2026/2027/2030), but the valuation already prices it: ~31x trailing P/E and ~23x EV/EBIT on depressed earnings, only ~4.5% FCF yield. Superb economics, recovery in the price.
At ~31x P/E / ~23x EV/EBIT on trough earnings, SinterCast discounts a mid-cycle volume normalization; the quality justifies a premium but not a margin of safety here.
Base SEK 110 (recovery largely priced); bull SEK 145 if CV programs ramp and volumes normalize faster; bear SEK 80 if the CGI volume recovery stalls.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 28.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 35% on capital against a 10% cost of capital (spread +25.1 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 44/share (40% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 145 | ≥33% | +34% | 30% | CV programs ramp; volumes normalize faster |
| Base | SEK 110 | +29% | +1% | 45% | Recovery largely priced |
| Bear | SEK 80 | +19% | -26% | 25% | CGI volume recovery stalls |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 113 | — | +4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 54 | 60 | 65 | 72 | 77 | 92 |
| 9.25% | 48 | 54 | 58 | 64 | 68 | 80 |
| 10.00% (base) | 44 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 61 | 71 |
| 10.75% | 40 | 44 | 47 | 52 | 55 | 64 |
| 11.50% | 37 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 50 | 58 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 108.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
New CV/industrial CGI programs ramping from late-2026 lift per-ton fees.
~90% recurring, ~70% gross margin — high-quality earnings.
ROIC ~35%, debt-free — capital-efficient compounding.
New series-production installations expand the recurring base.
SinterCast is a best-in-class, debt-free, ~90%-recurring CGI royalty model with ROIC ~35%, but at ~31x P/E on trough earnings the volume recovery is in the price. HOLD (quality); base SEK 110.
Accumulate on volume-driven weakness; the new CV programs are the multi-year driver.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (total) | 108 | Income Statement - Group / Note 1 | Revenue line, Jan-Dec 2025 column = 108.0 (prior year 135.6). Note 1 (p. 50) splits it: Recurring revenue from Series Production 97.3, Equipment 9.9, Engineering Service 0.9. |
| Recurring revenue from Series Production (production fees + consumables + software) | 97.3 | Note 1 Revenue Breakdown | Recurring revenue from Series Production = 97.3 (prior year 123.0), defined as recurring production fees, consumables (sampling cups) and software licence fees = 90.1% of revenue. The royalty-like economic core. |
| Equipment / installation revenue | 9.9 | Note 1 Revenue Breakdown | Equipment = 9.9 (prior year 11.4): revenue from sold and leased CGI and Tracking-system installations and spare parts. Second consecutive year above the 8.0 historical-average installation level. |
| Engineering service revenue | 0.9 | Note 1 Revenue Breakdown | Engineering Service = 0.9 (prior year 1.2): revenue from engineering service, demonstrations and test pieces. The smallest revenue stream. |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 32.8 | Income Statement - Group | Operating result line = 32.8 (prior year 43.2); operating margin 30.4%. Used directly as adjusted EBIT (no verified non-recurring add-backs; no company APM). |
| Gross result / margin | 76 | Income Statement - Group | Revenue 108.0 less cost of goods sold 32.0 = gross result 76.0; gross margin 70.4%, matching the company's stated figure (14th consecutive year above 70%). |
| Income tax expense | -8.1 | Income Statement - Group / Note 12 | Income tax -8.1 on result before tax 32.7 = effective rate 24.8%. Statutory 20.6% used for NOPAT per methodology. A large deferred tax asset (34.2) is carried (Note 12/16). |
| Result for the year (net income) | 24.6 | Income Statement - Group | Result for the year 24.6 (prior year 34.3), all attributable to parent (no NCI). EPS 3.49 on 7,042,934 average shares. |
| Total shareholders' equity | 76.1 | Balance Sheet - Group / Statement of Changes in Equity (p.38) | Total equity 76.1 at 31 Dec 2025 (share capital 7.1, additional paid-in 44.9, translation reserve 1.0, accumulated result incl. year 23.2). Fell from 102.9 mainly on the 49.3 dividend. All parent; no NCI. |
| Translation reserve (AOCI) | 1 | Statement of Changes in Equity - Group / Note 26 | Exchange-differences (translation) reserve = 1.0 at 31 Dec 2025. equity_ex_oci = total equity 76.1 - 1.0 = 75.1. |
| Interest-bearing debt | 0 | Balance Sheet - Group | NO borrowings from credit institutions or bonds on the balance sheet. Only debt-like item is an immaterial IFRS 16 lease (right-of-use 0.9; non-current lease within 'Other long term liabilities' 0.5). SinterCast is financial-debt-free. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 5.2 | Balance Sheet - Group / Cashflow Statement (p.39) | Total cash and cash equivalents 5.2 at 31 Dec 2025 (prior year 23.1; -17.9 cash outflow for the year driven by the 49.3 dividend). No separate marketable-securities line. 3.24 (~3% of revenue) retained as operational cash; 1.96 treated as excess. |
| Deferred tax asset | 34.2 | Balance Sheet - Group / Note 12, 16 | Deferred tax asset 34.2 (prior year 42.0), ~40% of total assets - from historic tax-loss carryforwards. Sits inside equity/IC; flagged as the reason headline ROIC understates the asset-light operating economics. |
| Shares outstanding (net of treasury) | 7.042 | SinterCast Share / Share Data (p.85) | Registered shares 7,067,532 less 25,223 treasury shares = 7,042,309 outstanding at 31 Dec 2025. No outstanding warrants/options. Used for market cap with verified price SEK 108.50. |
| Free cash flow (FY operating FCF) | 34.6 | Cashflow Statement - Group | Cash from operations 35.1 less capex (acquisition of tangible assets 0.5 + intangible 0.0) = 34.6. D&A (3.6) exceeds capex, so FCF exceeds net income. |
| Q1 2026 revenue / EBIT (trajectory) | 25 | Financial overview | Q1 2026 revenue 25.0 (-7.8% reported, ~+2.4% constant FX); recurring 24.2 (96.6%); EBIT 6.3 (margin 25.4%, down on a 2.6 FX/hedge-revaluation swing, not operations); series production 3.0m Engine Equivalents with March the first YoY-positive month in 15. Evidences the volume inflection; not used to re-anchor the FY file. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.