Taaleri is a Finnish alternative-investment manager — renewable-energy funds (wind/solar, ~EUR 1.8bn of EUR 2.7bn AUM) plus bioindustry, real estate and PE — that also owns Garantia, a guaranty/credit insurer. The structure is a hybrid, so the right lens blends an asset manager (fees, AUM) with a small insurance balance sheet. The standout asset is Garantia: a combined ratio of just 35% (structurally low-loss guaranty insurance), a 243% Solvency II ratio, an S&P A- rating and EUR 19.5m of the group's ~EUR 26m operating profit, paying a EUR 15m dividend up to the parent.
On equity primitives it trades ~at book (0.99x P/B owners' basis, ~12.7x earnings). 2025 was a depressed year — reported ROE ~9.5% (owners' basis ~7.9%) with performance fees ~nil — versus 15.3% in 2024 and a negative Q1 2026 (investment fair-value losses); earnings are genuinely lumpy. On a normalized through-cycle ~11% ROE the Gordon fair value is ~EUR 8.7 (+16% from ~7.5), but residual income is roughly zero through-cycle (the group earns about its ~10% cost of equity), so this is a fair-value, fortress-balance-sheet, optionality story rather than a wide-spread compounder. The binding question is growth: management flags that 2026 fund exits (end-of-lifecycle funds) will shrink AUM and the fee base, so re-rating needs AUM growth + the return of performance fees.
Trading ~at book (0.99x P/B, ~12.7x earnings) on a depressed 2025. Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10%, g 3%: a normalized ~11% ROE gives a fair value ~EUR 8.7 (+16%); the depressed reported ROE implies ~EUR 7.0 (-6%).
Base EUR 8.0 (a modest re-rate from book toward normalized fair as fees recover); bull EUR 9.5 if AUM/fee growth resumes, performance fees return and Garantia's value is recognised; bear EUR 6.5 if AUM shrinks on fund exits and depressed earnings persist.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 9.6% vs 9.3% currently earned; at a sustained 9.3% ROE the warranted P/B is 0.90× (€7/sh, -4%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €10 | 11% | +27% | 30% | AUM/fee growth resumes; performance fees return; Garantia recognised |
| Base | €8 | 10% | +7% | 45% | Modest re-rate from book toward normalized fair as fees recover |
| Bear | €6 | 9% | -13% | 25% | AUM shrinks on fund exits; depressed earnings persist |
| Prob-weighted | €8 | — | +8% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 10 | 16 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 39 | 45 |
| 9.25% | 9 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 34 | 39 |
| 10.00% (base) | 8 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 30 | 35 |
| 10.75% | 7 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 32 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 29 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €7.47. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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An exceptionally profitable, A-rated guaranty insurer (CR 35%, solvency 243%) — a hidden asset + cash engine.
EUR 1.8bn renewable-energy AUM with structural tailwinds (when fund-raising resumes).
Fund-exit carried interest can lift earnings materially in a good year.
Net cash, 72.8% equity ratio — downside protection + capital-return capacity.
Taaleri is a net-cash, fortress-capitalised Finnish alt-manager with an exceptional hidden asset in Garantia, trading ~at book on a depressed 2025 — fairly valued with modest upside if AUM/fee growth and performance fees return. HOLD, modest positive tilt; base EUR 8.0.
The fortress balance sheet and Garantia underpin the floor; the re-rating levers are AUM growth and the return of fund-exit performance fees against a 2026 AUM headwind.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profit for the period attributable to owners (FY2025) | 16.617 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.33 📄 p.33 | ROE numerator (owners basis). Total profit 20,750 split: owners 16,617 + NCI 4,134. |
| Profit for the period, total group (FY2025) | 20.75 | Consolidated income statement p.33 📄 p.33 | Total group profit; company-reported ROE 9.5% is on this figure over avg total equity. |
| Management fees and other continuing earnings (IFRS, FY2025) | 32.027 | Consolidated income statement p.33 📄 p.33 | RECURRING fee income on the IFRS income statement — the durable revenue line, separated from performance fees. |
| Performance fees (IFRS, FY2025) | -0.016 | Consolidated income statement p.33 📄 p.33 | Performance/carried-interest fees effectively NIL in 2025 (EUR -0.016m) vs EUR 1.845m in 2024 — the lumpy line that drives ROE volatility. |
| Revenue (IFRS, FY2025) | 63.662 | Consolidated income statement p.33 📄 p.33 | Total IFRS revenue. Segment-basis revenue is EUR 61.2m (p.6); difference is presentation of associates/transit items. |
| Operating profit (FY2025) | 26.046 | Consolidated income statement p.33 📄 p.33 | Group operating profit; 42.4% of segment revenue. Used to derive effective tax rate (tax 4,944 / PBT 25,695 = 19.2%). |
| Total equity (31 Dec 2025) | 223 | Consolidated balance sheet p.35 📄 p.35 | Capital base. Owners' equity = 222,750 - NCI 9,053 = 213,697 (the P/B & ROE denominator). |
| Non-controlling interest (31 Dec 2025) | 9.053 | Consolidated balance sheet p.35 📄 p.35 | NCI deducted from total equity to reach owners' equity 213,697; NCI is meaningful here (Garantia/fund-level minority). |
| Equity per share (FY2025) | 7.59 | Per-share key figures p.31 📄 p.31 | Owners' equity 213,697 / 28,168,995 shares ex-treasury = EUR 7.586 (company-rounded 7.59). Confirms owners-equity figure and BVPS. |
| Earnings per share, basic (FY2025) | 0.59 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.33 📄 p.33 | EPS basic EUR 0.59 (diluted 0.57). At price 7.47 implies P/E 12.7x; company P/E 13.2x at the 7.81 close. |
| Return on equity (FY2025, annualised) | 0.095 | Per-share / key figures p.31 + p.4 📄 p.31 | Company-reported ROE 9.5% (total basis); ROE at fair value 10.7%. A depressed year vs FY2024's 15.3%; normalized through-cycle 11.0% used for valuation. |
| Assets under management (Private Asset Management, FY2025) | 2.7 | Key figures p.2 + Highlights 📄 p.2 | AUM EUR 2.7bn, +1.0% YoY (renewable energy EUR 1.8bn). The forward fee driver; management flags 2026 fund exits will reduce it. |
| Segment continuing earnings (FY2025, group) | 42.2 | Group key figures p.2 📄 p.2 | Wider 'continuing earnings' metric +4.4% YoY: PAM 29.8 + Garantia 11.9 + Other 0.4. Garantia's share = insurance service result, not a fee; hence wider than IFRS management-fee line 32.0. |
| Garantia combined ratio (IFRS, FY2025) | 0.353 | Garantia segment p.13 📄 p.13 | Underwriting profitability 35.3% (2024 24.9%; Q1 2026 21.8%) — exceptionally profitable guaranty-insurance underwriting. Claims ratio 9.2%, expense ratio 24.4%. |
| Garantia insurance revenue & service result (FY2025) | 12.6 | Garantia segment p.13 📄 p.13 | Insurance service result EUR 12.6m on insurance revenue EUR 19.4m. The recurring underwriting profit; -11.4% YoY on normalised higher claims. |
| Garantia solvency ratio (Solvency II, FY2025) | 2.432 | Garantia p.14 + APM table 📄 p.14 | Solvency II ratio 243.2% (2024: 262.7%) — very strong capital buffer; S&P rating A- (stable). Supports the EUR 15m upstream dividend. |
| Dividend per share proposed (FY2025) | 0.3 | Dividend proposal of the Board p.7 📄 p.7 | EUR 0.30/share (two EUR 0.15 instalments), total EUR 8.45m, 50.9% payout, ~4.0% yield. Cut from EUR 0.50 (FY2024) on lower profit. |
| Number of shares at end of period (ex-treasury, FY2025) | 28,168,995 | Per-share key figures p.31 📄 p.31 | 28,168,995 shares ex-treasury (27,258 own shares held). Used for BVPS, P/B and market cap. |
| Q1 2026 continuing earnings & operating profit | 10.5 | Interim Statement 1 Jan-31 Mar 2026 (29 Apr 2026) | Q1 2026 continuing earnings EUR 10.5m (+12.6%; PAM 6.7, Garantia 3.7); revenue EUR 12.6m (+46.4%); operating profit EUR 2.1m; EPS 0.04; Garantia combined ratio 21.8%. BUT annualised ROE -2.8% on investment fair-value losses — illustrates the lumpiness. |
| Share price TAALA.HE (verified live) | 7.47 | Stockopedia / Investing.com / Borsdata, week of 2-5 Jun 2026 | Verified live Helsinki close EUR 7.47 (~2026-06-08); corroborated EUR 7.49 (MarketScreener 2 Jun) and market cap EUR 210.6m (Stockopedia). Used for all live multiples. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.