ABG Sundal Collier is one of the Nordic region's leading independent investment banks — equity and debt capital markets, M&A advisory and secondary brokerage/research — a single-segment, fee- and commission-driven, capital-light business (no lending or asset-management balance sheet to speak of). It earns a very high ROE (~36% LTM, ~35% FY2025) and distributes nearly all of it: a ~7.5% dividend yield at a ~78% payout (NOK 0.55/share). On equity-return primitives it trades at 3.4x book and ~10.6x earnings — the high P/B is simply the arithmetic of a near-full-payout model that holds book equity at only ~NOK 1bn.
The right way to value it is on a normalized through-cycle ROE, not the peak: capital-markets revenue swings hard with deal and trading activity (the 2021 boom drove a ~72% ROE; the 2022-23 trough ~24%). On a normalized ~28% ROE and a higher 10.5% cost of equity (a cyclical broker warrants it), the Gordon fair value is ~NOK 7.3 — essentially the current price; on the near-peak 35% ROE it is ~NOK 9.3. So the stock is fairly valued for its normalized earnings and owned chiefly for the variable, high dividend. Near term, the January-2026 FIH Partners (Danish IB) acquisition added ~NOK 139m goodwill, took regulatory coverage from 1.8x to 1.5x and depressed Q1-2026 operating margin to ~8% on integration costs and seasonality.
Gordon fair P/B = (ROE-g)/(COE-g) with COE 10.5%, g 3%: a normalized ~28% ROE gives a fair value ~NOK 7.3 (~current); the near-peak 35% ROE supports ~NOK 9.3. Current 3.4x book, ~10.6x earnings, ~7.5% dividend yield.
Base NOK 7.3 (fair on normalized through-cycle earnings; the dividend is the return); bull NOK 9.3 if a strong capital-markets cycle sustains a mid-30s ROE; bear NOK 5.5 if activity troughs and the payout is cut.
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 28.1% vs 32.9% currently earned; at a sustained 32.9% ROE the warranted P/B is 3.98× (NOK 9/sh, +19%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 9 | 35% | +27% | 30% | Strong capital-markets cycle sustains a mid-30s ROE |
| Base | NOK 7 | 28% | -1% | 45% | Fair on normalized through-cycle earnings; dividend is the return |
| Bear | NOK 6 | 22% | -25% | 25% | Activity troughs; payout cut |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 7 | — | +1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00% | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 9.75% | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 10.50% (base) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.25% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 7.35. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
ECM/DCM/M&A activity drives fee income — the dominant swing factor.
~7.5% yield at ~78% payout — the core reason to own it.
Adds Danish IB scale; integration is a near-term margin drag, a medium-term driver.
High ROE on a tiny equity base; no balance-sheet leverage risk.
ABG Sundal Collier is a high-quality, capital-light Nordic investment bank earning a high but cyclical ROE and paying out nearly all of it (~7.5% yield) — but at 3.4x book it sits ~at a normalized-ROE Gordon fair value, so it is owned for the variable dividend, not a discount. HOLD; base NOK 7.3.
The swing factors are the capital-markets cycle and the FIH integration; accumulate on a cyclical pullback where the through-cycle ROE clears with margin.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenues FY2025 | 2,172 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.48 | FY2025 total revenues NOK 2,172.066m, the sum of the three product lines; FY2024 1,932.799m (+12%). |
| Revenue split FY2025 (CF / M&A / Brokerage) | 736 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.48 | Corporate Financing 736.455, M&A and Advisory 829.497, Brokerage and Research 606.114 — the three product lines on the income-statement face (the firm reports a single operating segment). |
| Operating profit FY2025 | 491 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.48 | FY2025 operating profit NOK 490.830m (FY2024 407.356m, +20%); operating margin 23%. LTM operating profit 465.9 = 34.4 + 490.8 - 59.3. |
| Net result / profit to owners FY2025 | 364 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income p.48 | FY2025 net result for the year 371.375m total group, of which 364.405m to owners of the parent and 6.970m to NCI. LTM net income to owners 356.3 = 39.7 + 364.4 - 47.8. |
| Total equity / equity to parent (Q1 2026) | 1,130 | Consolidated balance sheet p.14 | Latest-quarter equity snapshot is the invested-capital base: total equity 1,130.5m at 31 Mar 2026, of which 1,122.8m to owners of parent and 7.6m NCI (FY2025 total 1,053.4m). |
| Goodwill + other intangibles (FY2025) | 109 | Consolidated statement of financial position p.49 | Goodwill 93.308 + other intangibles 15.670 = 108.978 deducted from parent equity to reach tangible common equity 934.7 for ROTCE / P-TBV. (Total intangible ASSETS line 189.169 also includes 80.192 deferred tax assets, which are NOT deducted.) |
| Return on equity (5-year) | 0.35 | Key figures p.7 | Reported RoE (net result / average equity): 2025 35%, 2024 31%, 2023 24%, 2022 24%, 2021 72%. Highly cyclical; supports a normalized through-cycle approx 28% (ex-2021) for the Gordon anchor. |
| Proposed dividend per share FY2025 | 0.55 | Note 23 Equity / Statutory Director's Report | Board proposed a payment to shareholders of NOK 0.55/share for accounting year 2025 (NOK 0.50 in 2024); total payment approx NOK 290m. approx 78% payout of basic EPS, approx 7.5% yield on NOK 7.35. |
| Payment per share (5-year history) | 0.55 | Key figures p.7 | Per-share payments 2021-2025: 1.00 / 0.50 / 0.50 / 0.50 / 0.55. Near-full payout of earnings each year — the high-distribution policy is central to the thesis. |
| EPS FY2025 (basic / diluted) | 0.71 | Note 22 Earnings per share p.64 | FY2025 basic EPS 0.71, diluted 0.66 (on profit to owners 364.405m; avg basic shares ex-own 512,612k, diluted 572,908k). Used for payout ratios. |
| Shares outstanding / treasury / diluted (Q1 2026) | 528 | Key figures in last nine quarters p.22 | Period-end shares outstanding 527,735k (constant), treasury 13,778k at Q1 2026 -> net 513,957k; diluted shares 584,625k (incl. 70,668k partner forward contracts). Net shares drive market cap and P/B. |
| Total operating revenues Q1 2026 | 414 | Condensed consolidated income statement p.13 | Q1 2026 revenues 413.8m (Q1 2025 406.6m); CF 134.3 / M&A 110.3 / Brokerage 169.2. Operating profit only 34.4m (margin 8%) on FIH integration costs + seasonality. |
| Operating margin / ROE by quarter (cyclicality) | 0.08 | Key figures in last nine quarters p.22 | Operating margin ranged 8%-28% and annualised RoE 18%-42% over the last nine quarters — direct evidence of the cyclicality that mandates a normalized through-cycle ROE rather than a single year. |
| Regulatory capital ratio (Q1 2026) | 0.12 | Key figures in last nine quarters p.22 | Total capital adequacy ratio 12% at Q1 2026 (FY2025 14.1%), minimum-requirement coverage 1.5x — down after the FIH acquisition consumed surplus capital. A broker frame (no CET1 / credit-loss disclosure). |
| Year-end share price 2025 | 8.23 | Statutory Director's Report — Shareholders | ABGSC share closed at NOK 8.23 on 31 Dec 2025 (NOK 7.08 on 31 Dec 2024); confirms the low single-digit nominal price. Live price NOK 7.35 (2026-06-08) used for current multiples. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.