Olvi is a multi-local brewer (beer, ciders/long drinks, soft drinks, water) with strong #1 local market shares (>50% beer in Finland), a deliberate non-alcoholic mix shift (43.6% of volume), and best-in-class 12%+ operating margins. The moat is local brand strength, distribution density and production efficiency. Adjusted ROIC is 15.1% with EP +€29M.
The defining issue is Belarus: OAO Lidskoe Pivo (96.4%-owned) is fully consolidated and contributes ~42% of group EBIT, but its cash is largely trapped (€2–4m/yr upstreaming cap until end-2026) and it is carried at a Level-3 fair value discounted at 37.6% — materially lowering the quality of headline ROIC. Capital allocation just turned aggressive: three Jan-2026 acquisitions (Latvia, Balkans, Nordics) doubled goodwill and flipped the balance sheet from net cash to net debt, with near-term margin dilution already visible (Q1 EBIT −14.5%).
Reverse-DCF base ~€48 versus €31.60 (PEBV 0.83, EV/IC 1.5x) — but we haircut for the Belarus concentration/trapped cash and the unproven M&A pivot.
Base €39 on a stable core franchise discounted for Belarus; bull €50 if Belarus cash repatriates and the Balkan/Nordic deals prove accretive; bear €29 on a Belarus shock (sanctions/expropriation/FX) or M&A integration disappointment.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -13.5% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 15% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +7.1 pp); the no-growth value is €45/share (141% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €50 | +4% | +58% | 30% | Belarus cash repatriates; Balkan/Nordic deals accretive |
| Base | €39 | -5% | +23% | 45% | Stable core discounted for Belarus overhang |
| Bear | €29 | -17% | -8% | 25% | Belarus shock or M&A integration disappoints |
| Prob-weighted | €40 | — | +26% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 60 | 66 | 70 | 77 | 82 | 96 |
| 7.25% | 51 | 56 | 59 | 64 | 68 | 78 |
| 8.00% (base) | 45 | 48 | 51 | 55 | 58 | 65 |
| 8.75% | 40 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 55 |
| 9.50% | 36 | 38 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 48 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €31.60. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
12%+ operating margin, #1 local shares, non-alcoholic mix shift — durable local-brand economics.
Adjusted ROIC 15.1% > 8% WACC, EP +€29M — genuine value creation.
Raised to €1.35 (~43% payout), long unbroken growth — shareholder-friendly.
Latvia/Balkans/Nordics deals add scale — accretive if integrated well (the open question).
Olvi is a genuinely high-return, best-in-margin multi-local brewer at a reasonable valuation (PEBV 0.83), but the 42%-of-EBIT Belarus overhang and an unproven, debt-funded M&A pivot cap conviction until integration economics and Belarus cash repatriation clarify. HOLD, medium conviction; base €39.
Constructive on evidence of Belarus cash repatriation or clear M&A accretion; a Belarus shock is the main downside.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (revenue) FY2025 | 665 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income / Note 1-2 📄 p.96 | Net sales line = gross sales 1,385.528 less excise taxes & adjustments 720.253 = 665.275m. LTM revenue 680.400m = FY 665.275 + Q1-2026 147.937 - Q1-2025 132.812 (Q1 p10). |
| Operating result (EBIT) FY2025 | 81.811 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income 📄 p.96 | OPERATING RESULT line = 81.811m (12.3% margin). LTM EBIT 80.010m = FY 81.811 + Q1-2026 10.640 - Q1-2025 12.441 (Q1 p10). |
| Profit before tax / Income taxes FY2025 | 82.851 | Statement of Comprehensive Income / Note 9 📄 p.96 | PBT 82.851m; income taxes 18.027m -> effective tax 21.76% (FY2025). Used as the normalized NOPAT tax rate; LTM ETR (23.81%) is distorted by Q1 quarterly tax timing/seasonality. Tax reconciliation on AR p108 (Finnish statutory 20%, foreign-rate effect +3.445m). |
| Goodwill FY2025 | 22.405 | Note 11 Intangible assets / Note 12 📄 p.111 | Goodwill book value 31 Dec 2025 = 22.405m, allocated Finland 11.075 + Baltic Sea 11.128 + Belarus 0 (Belarus goodwill written off historically). No amortization; impairment-tested annually (AR p112). |
| Intangible assets (brands/customer rel.) FY2025 | 8.186 | Note 11 Intangible assets 📄 p.111 | Intangible assets book value 31 Dec 2025 = 8.186m (customer relationships, trademarks, software, land leases; incl. EUR 1.017m water-withdrawal right with indefinite life). Goodwill + intangibles = 30.591m (matches anchor). |
| PPA / intangible amortization FY2025 | 1.803 | Note 11 — Depreciation line 📄 p.111 | Intangible amortization charge FY2025 = 1.803m (PPA from Baltic acquisitions + software). KEPT in opex (not added back). Will rise in FY2026: Jan-2026 deals added customer relations 4.124 + brands 8.353 of new intangibles (Q1 p19). |
| Belarus segment — one-off check | 0 | Note 12 — Belarus / Q1 Note 12 (p18) 📄 p.112 | NO FY2025/LTM Belarus one-off. 2022 impairment of EUR 35.0m was on Belarusian FIXED ASSETS (not a deconsolidation); OAO Lidskoe Pivo stays 96.36%-owned, fully consolidated (164.5m net sales, 34.6m EBIT = 42% of group). Re-tested 31 Dec 2025 (FV 87.0m) and 31 Mar 2026 (FV 79.9m), discount rate 37.60% cost of equity — NO change to impairment, so no charge/reversal to normalize. Dividend upstreaming legally capped at EUR 2-4m/yr until end-2026 (AR p112). |
| Non-controlling interest (NCI) FY2025 | 2.265 | Consolidated Balance Sheet — Equity / Note 17 (p99) 📄 p.97 | NCI in equity = 2.265m (Belarus 3.64% + Latvia A/S Cesu Alus 0.12% + Lithuania Volfas Engelman 0.33% minorities; subsidiary-holding table AR p25). Total equity 369.365m; equity to parent 367.100m. NCI does not adjust IC; tracked for PEBV. Brewery International (51%-owned, Q1 p18) will add to NCI from FY2026. |
| Lease liabilities FY2025 | 9.042 | Note 18 Financial liabilities 📄 p.118 | Lease liabilities 6.532 (non-current) + 2.510 (current) = 9.042m, reported INSIDE interest-bearing financial liabilities. EXCLUDED from IC (lease_liabilities_in_ic=false): vehicles/production equipment/premises, peripheral vs 263.2m owned tangible assets; lease interest only 0.393m (Note 8). |
| Interest-bearing debt (loans) FY2025 | 33.581 | Note 18 Financial liabilities 📄 p.118 | Loans from financial institutions = 16.567 (non-current) + 17.014 (current) = 33.581m. Includes the EUR 22m long-term green loan (brewhouse) and EUR 11.5m commercial-paper drawings. This (ex-leases) is the IB debt used in IC. Total IB liabilities incl. leases = 42.623m (reconciliation AR p118). |
| Cash and cash equivalents FY2025 | 56.292 | Consolidated Balance Sheet / Note 16 📄 p.97 | Cash 56.292m at 31 Dec 2025. Net CASH position: gross IB debt 42.623 - cash 56.292 = -13.669m (matches anchor). operational_cash = 2% x LTM rev = 13.608m; excess_cash = 42.684m subtracted from IC. |
| Total equity / translation reserve FY2025 | 369 | Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity / Note 17 📄 p.99 | Total equity 369.365m. Accumulated translation differences -55.426m + fair-value reserve 0.220m = OCI -55.206m, stripped out -> equity_ex_oci 424.571m. Share-based payments 1.523m booked in equity (kept in opex). |
| Free cash flow FY2025 | 26.465 | Consolidated Cash Flow Statement 📄 p.98 | Operating cash flow 80.796m - capex (tangible 53.681 + intangible 0.650) = 26.465m FCF. Heavy investment year (brewhouse + Iisalmi high-bay warehouse); capex 51.8m well above D&A 26.7m. |
| Q1 2026 net sales / EBIT (LTM bridge + momentum) | 148 | Q1 2026 Statement of Comprehensive Income 📄 p.10 | Q1-2026: net sales 147.937m (+11.4% YoY, acquisition-driven), EBIT 10.640m (-14.5%), margin 7.2% (9.4% PY). EUR 1.8m drag from Denmark weakness + higher PPA depreciation on new subsidiaries. Profit 5.869m (-39.8%). 2026 EBIT guidance EUR 84-92m unchanged (Q1 p1). |
| Q1 2026 post-acquisition balance sheet (NCI/goodwill/debt) | 43.106 | Q1 2026 Consolidated Balance Sheet 📄 p.11 | 31-Mar-2026 snapshot (not used for IC): goodwill 43.106m, intangibles 21.268m, financial liabilities 102.573m, equity 373.284m (NCI 2.280m), cash 64.762m, equity ratio 53.2%, gearing +10.1% (net debt). Three Jan-2026 acquisitions consolidated; Baltic Sea segment renamed 'Rest of Europe'. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.