Goodtech is effectively a Norway-only industrial-automation and water/environment engineering-services group (87% of revenue) after exiting its loss-making Swedish units. The model is project-driven with structurally low, volatile EBIT margins (~5–6% on gross revenue) and a shallow, relationship-based moat; capital allocation has improved markedly (net cash, zero bank debt, CFO 83 vs EBITDA 67).
The headline 18% adjusted ROIC and +NOK 20M EP are real but partly mechanical — an asset-light denominator after historical write-offs plus a ~NOK 97M excess-cash strip — and goodwill at NOK 155M is 56% of equity in a single cyclical Norwegian CGU (it passed IAS 36 at a stiff 14.4% pre-tax rate with comfortable headroom). Q1 2026 showed margin expansion (EBITA 7.0%→10.5%).
Reverse-DCF base sits ~NOK 23 versus NOK 13 (PEBV 0.72, EV/IC 1.4x, ~20% FCF yield) — statistically cheap, but we haircut heavily for the thin-margin/shallow-moat profile and the goodwill overhang.
Base NOK 16 on continued margin recovery; bull NOK 22 if Q1 margin expansion sustains and the order book stabilises; bear NOK 11 if Norwegian industrial capex softens and project margins compress.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -21.9% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 18% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +10.0 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 21/share (165% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 22 | +1% | +69% | 30% | Q1 margin expansion sustains; backlog stabilises |
| Base | NOK 16 | -12% | +23% | 45% | Continued margin recovery; cyclical project base |
| Bear | NOK 11 | -30% | -15% | 25% | Norwegian capex softens; project margins compress |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 17 | — | +27% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 43 |
| 7.25% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 36 |
| 8.00% (base) | 21 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 31 |
| 8.75% | 19 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 9.50% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 13.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Q1 2026 EBITA 7.0%→10.5% (+54% YoY) — the key signal that the cleanup is working.
Zero bank debt, CFO 83 vs EBITDA 67, ~20% FCF yield — downside support.
Decisive exit of the insolvent Swedish unit removes a structural drag.
Adjusted ROIC 18% > 8% WACC, EP +NOK 20M — genuine, if partly mechanical.
Goodtech is a cleaned-up, net-cash, above-WACC Norwegian engineering group that screens cheap (PEBV 0.72) but has already re-rated to its analyst target, with a shallow moat and a heavy single-CGU goodwill load capping the multiple. HOLD, medium conviction; base NOK 16.
An upgrade needs the Q1 margin expansion to hold and the order book to stabilise; a backlog deterioration that narrows goodwill headroom is the main downside.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (FY2025) | 724 | Note 3 Operating segments (Total column: Operating revenue 721.2 + Other revenue 2.8) 📄 p.60 | Group total revenue for FY2025; matches the Borsdata anchor 724.0. Operating revenue 721.2 plus other revenue 2.8. |
| Total revenue (Q1 2026 / Q1 2025) | 172 | Condensed Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (Q1 2026 172.2; Q1 2025 196.0) 📄 p.13 | Used to build LTM revenue: 724.0 + 172.2 - 196.0 = 700.2. |
| EBIT (FY2025) | 36.6 | Note 3 segment / Statement of Profit or Loss (EBITDA 67.3, D&A -27.0, Impairment -3.7, EBIT 36.6) 📄 p.60 | Reported group EBIT FY2025; matches anchor. Confirms a -3.7 impairment line inside EBIT. |
| EBIT (Q1 2026 / Q1 2025) | 14.2 | Statement of Profit or Loss (Q1 2026 EBIT 14.2; Q1 2025 EBIT 9.0) 📄 p.13 | LTM EBIT = 36.6 + 14.2 - 9.0 = 41.8. Shows the +58% YoY EBIT improvement. |
| Impairment in EBIT (FY2025) | 3.7 | Note 14 Intangible Assets (Impairment for the year on Development costs -3.7) + narrative 📄 p.72 | Impairment of capitalized development costs (~MNOK 2.0 MES tied to divested Goodtech Solutions AB, ~1.0 Wize 2 internal tool). Genuine one-off; normalized out (pre-tax add-back +3.7). |
| Goodwill carrying amount | 155 | Note 14 Intangible Assets, 'Distribution of Goodwill' (Goodtech AS 154.8) and carrying-amount reconciliation p72 📄 p.73 | Goodwill = NOK 154.8m, ALL in CGU Norway (2024: 154.4). The BS 'Intangible assets' 167.1 = goodwill 154.8 + capitalized development costs 12.8. Goodwill/equity = 56%. |
| Goodwill impairment-test discount rate | 0.144 | Note 14, 'Testing for Impairment of CGUs Involving Goodwill' (Discount rate before tax / WACC, CGU Norway = 14.4%) 📄 p.73 | IAS 36 value-in-use pre-tax discount rate for the single Norway CGU. Test PASSED with comfortable headroom; no quantitative sensitivity disclosed because no reasonably possible change triggers impairment (p74). Not used as group WACC. |
| Goodwill impairment in FY2025 | 0 | Note 14 'Impairment of Goodwill' — 'no impairment situations have been identified for the CGU Norway as of 31 December 2025' 📄 p.74 | Zero goodwill impairment in FY2025. (The NOK 5.1m goodwill impairment on Goodtech Solutions AB was a 2024 event tied to its sale completed Feb 2025; outside the LTM window.) |
| PPA amortization | 0 | Note 14 reconciliation (no acquisition-intangible/'other intangible' amortization; goodwill not amortized) 📄 p.72 | No PPA amortization to reject — the 'other intangible assets' column is ~0; only internal-development amortization exists, which we keep in opex but is not PPA. |
| Share-based compensation (FY2025) | 1.9 | Statement of Changes in Equity, 'Share-based compensation' line (2025: 1.9) 📄 p.54 | SBC 1.9 MNOK kept in opex (mttssn does not add back). Real economic cost. |
| Lease liabilities (Q1 2026) | 61.5 | Statement of Financial Position (Non-current lease liabilities 45.0 + Current lease liabilities 16.5) 📄 p.15 | Total lease liabilities 61.5 (Q1 2026). EXCLUDED from IC (office/facility leases peripheral to a services model). FY2025 figure was 63.0 (AR p52: 45.6 + 17.4). |
| Interest-bearing debt ex-lease (Q1 2026 & FY2025) | 0 | Statement of Financial Position ('Current interest-bearing debt' = 0); corroborated by Note 20 (AR p80) 📄 p.15 | Zero bank/overdraft debt. Note 20 (AR p80) states all interest-bearing liabilities relate solely to recognized lease liabilities; the SEK 13.7 + EUR 3.8 = 17.5 Nordea overdraft at FY2024 was fully repaid (cash flow 'Change in overdraft currency -17.5'). |
| Cash and cash equivalents (Q1 2026) | 111 | Statement of Financial Position, Cash and cash equivalents 📄 p.15 | Q1 2026 cash 110.8 (FY2025 was 127.0, AR p52). Excess cash 96.8 stripped from IC after 2%-of-revenue operational allowance. |
| Total equity (Q1 2026) | 294 | Statement of Financial Position, Total equity 📄 p.15 | Q1 2026 total equity 293.8 (FY2025 277.0, AR p52/p54). Forms equity_ex_oci (OCI immaterial). NCI = 0. |
| Accumulated OCI / translation reserve (FY2025) | 0.1 | Statement of Changes in Equity, Translation differences column (31.12.2025 = 0.1) 📄 p.54 | Translation reserve only NOK 0.1m at year-end; <1% of equity -> set accumulated_oci = 0 (not stripped). No hedge/pension OCI reserves. |
| Net financial items (FY2025) | -3 | Note 9 Finance Income and Finance Expense (income 7.0, expense -10.3; -3.3 in note, -3.0 in segment) 📄 p.65 | Interest on loans/operating credit/lease obligations -3.6; FX losses -5.8; guarantee commission -0.3. Confirms minimal financing cost and lease interest already below EBIT. |
| Tax expense (FY2025) / statutory rate | 3.8 | Note 10 Taxes (Tax expense 3.8 on EBT 33.6; tax at 22% statutory = 7.4) 📄 p.66 | Reported effective rate ~11.3% distorted by recognition of DTAs on NOK 122.0m carryforward losses. We normalize NOPAT on the 22% Norway statutory rate. |
| Net income / continuing-ops profit (FY2025) | 29.8 | Statement of Comprehensive Income (Continuing operations 29.8; Discontinued -17.8; total earnings after tax 18.9) 📄 p.51 | Headline 'Profit for the year 29.8' = continuing operations. Total net income (incl. discontinued) 18.9. LTM net income (incl. discontinued) = 18.9 + 10.7 - (-2.6) = 32.2. |
| EBITA APM (FY2025) | 43.6 | Key figures (EBITA 43.6, EBITA margin 8.4%) 📄 p.3 | Company headline APM. EBITA LTM = 43.6 + 14.8 - 9.6 = 48.8, used as company_adjusted_ebit in the APM bridge (6.8% divergence vs our 45.5). |
| Operating cash flow & capex (FY2025) | 83.1 | Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (CFO 83.1; capex tangible -3.5, intangible -2.8) 📄 p.55 | Strong cash conversion; FCF proxy = 83.1 - 6.3 = 76.8. Also shows loss on disposal of discontinued operations 9.0 and lease principal repayment -21.0. |
| Order backlog (Q1 2026) | 312 | Order intake and backlog (backlog 312 MNOK; order intake 148 MNOK) 📄 p.4 | Backlog down from 333 (Q4 2025); frame-agreement renewals, less project-heavy mix. Forward-demand context for the qualitative view. |
| Share price end-2025 | 9.78 | Remuneration/Shareholders section ('shares were listed at NOK 9.78 per share', vs 9.96 end-2024) 📄 p.85 | Reference point; the stock has since re-rated to NOK 13.00 (Jun 2026) on the margin improvement. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.