Kalmar, independent since the 2024 Cargotec split, is a leader in container- and cargo-handling equipment (reachstackers, straddle carriers, terminal tractors) with a large, high-margin aftermarket and a growing electrification/automation offering. Adjusted ROIC of 26.7% and a net-cash balance sheet mark a genuinely high-return, capital-light franchise.
Crucially, the equity at €44.5 embeds only ~2.4% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF) — low for a 27%-ROIC business — and the fair-value range brackets-to-above the price. That combination of high realised returns and modest implied growth makes Kalmar the most attractive name in this slice.
With 27% ROIC the perpetuity is conservative; even so, the reverse-DCF fair value runs €43 (zero growth), €46 (GDP) and €51 (5% growth) versus the €44.5 price — i.e. fair-to-cheap for the quality, with net cash beneath.
Base €50 (+12%) on aftermarket/electrification mix lifting margins; bull €60 (port automation and decarbonisation demand accelerate); bear €36 (a port-capex/trade slowdown hits equipment orders).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 1.2% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 27% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +18.7 pp); the no-growth value is €43/share (96% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €60 | +10% | +35% | 35% | Port automation/decarbonisation demand accelerates |
| Base | €50 | +5% | +12% | 40% | Aftermarket/electrification mix lifts margins |
| Bear | €36 | -5% | -19% | 25% | Port-capex/trade slowdown hits orders |
| Prob-weighted | €50 | — | +12% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 58 | 65 | 70 | 78 | 84 | 101 |
| 7.25% | 49 | 55 | 59 | 65 | 70 | 83 |
| 8.00% (base) | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 71 |
| 8.75% | 38 | 42 | 44 | 49 | 52 | 61 |
| 9.50% | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 54 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €44.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A large services/parts base provides recurring, high-margin revenue and resilience.
High capital efficiency and a debt-free balance sheet — genuine quality.
Price embeds only ~2.4% growth — a real margin of safety for the quality.
Port decarbonisation and automation are structural demand drivers.
Independence allows sharper capital allocation and a cleaner equity story.
Kalmar is a high-ROIC, net-cash cargo-handling franchise priced for minimal growth — the genuine value name in this slice. Modest BUY, medium conviction; base target €50 (+12%).
The aftermarket and electrification mix plus net cash provide support; a trade-cycle pullback toward the high-€30s would be a stronger entry.