Europris is the leading Norwegian discount variety retailer (and, via ÖoB, a Swedish presence), a defensive, value-for-money format that performs well when consumers trade down. Adjusted ROIC of 11.8% and +NOK 344M economic profit show a genuinely value-creating retailer with scale and private-label depth.
But discount retail is competitive and capital-light only to a point: the reverse-DCF implies the NOK 93 price embeds ~4.9% perpetual growth, and the fair-value range sits well below the price. The equity is fully valued — quality, but not cheap.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs NOK 61–80 across growth scenarios — below the NOK 93 price (~4.9% implied growth). For a competitive retail format that is a full valuation that must be delivered through continued share gains.
Base NOK 90 (−3%, modest de-rate); bull NOK 110 (trade-down tailwind, ÖoB turnaround and store expansion deliver); bear NOK 70 (consumer recovery erodes the discount tailwind, or margin pressure).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~11.2%, limited by ROIC 12% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 61/share (66% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 110 | ≥11% | +19% | 30% | Trade-down tailwind + ÖoB turnaround + expansion |
| Base | NOK 90 | ≥11% | -3% | 45% | Modest de-rate; full implied growth |
| Bear | NOK 70 | +5% | -24% | 25% | Consumer recovery erodes discount tailwind |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 91 | — | -2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 93 | 103 | 110 | 121 | 129 | 151 |
| 7.25% | 75 | 82 | 87 | 95 | 101 | 115 |
| 8.00% (base) | 61 | 67 | 70 | 76 | 80 | 90 |
| 8.75% | 51 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 64 | 71 |
| 9.50% | 43 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 56 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 92.60. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Value-for-money retail gains share when consumers trade down — counter-cyclical demand.
Own-brand penetration supports margins and differentiation.
A continued store-rollout and ÖoB (Sweden) optionality drive growth.
11.8% ROIC and +NOK 344M EP — a retailer that earns above its cost of capital.
Solid free cash flow (8.4% yield) funds dividends and expansion.
Europris is a quality, value-creating discount retailer at a full price. We rate it HOLD, medium conviction; base target NOK 90 (−3%) — own it through a pullback rather than at a full implied growth.
A consumer- or competition-driven pullback toward the low-NOK 70s, near the reverse-DCF floor, would offer a better entry.