Boliden combines low-cost Nordic metal mining (zinc, copper, gold, nickel, silver) with integrated smelting, a vertically-integrated model with strong ESG positioning (low-carbon metals). Adjusted ROIC of 12.7% and +SEK 4.5B economic profit reflect genuine value creation through the metals cycle.
Unusually for a cyclical, the equity at SEK 573 is fairly valued — the reverse-DCF brackets the price (SEK 588 at GDP, SEK 623 at 5% growth) on only ~2.5% implied growth, so the market is not pricing a strong cycle. Copper exposure to electrification is the upside; heavy capex (Odda zinc) is the offset.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through SEK 14.3B net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 554 (zero growth) to SEK 697 (10% growth) — bracketing the SEK 573 price at a low ~2.5% implied growth. Fair-to-slightly-cheap for a low-cost integrated miner.
Base SEK 600 (+5%) on a normalised metals environment; bull SEK 700 (copper/metals upcycle on electrification demand); bear SEK 450 (metals-price weakness plus heavy capex weighs).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 1.4% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 13% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +4.7 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 554/share (97% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 700 | +10% | +22% | 35% | Copper/metals upcycle on electrification |
| Base | SEK 600 | +3% | +5% | 40% | Fair: low implied growth, normalised metals |
| Bear | SEK 450 | -9% | -21% | 25% | Metals-price weakness + heavy capex |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 598 | — | +4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 768 | 840 | 891 | 973 | 1,031 | 1,189 |
| 7.25% | 644 | 698 | 736 | 795 | 837 | 949 |
| 8.00% (base) | 554 | 595 | 623 | 667 | 697 | 776 |
| 8.75% | 486 | 517 | 537 | 569 | 591 | 646 |
| 9.50% | 432 | 455 | 470 | 493 | 508 | 545 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 573.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Copper exposure leverages structural electrification and grid demand — the upside.
Vertically integrated mining-plus-smelting lowers unit costs and adds resilience.
Price embeds only ~2.5% growth — limited downside from expectations.
Low-carbon metal positioning supports premium demand and customer relationships.
The Odda zinc expansion adds future volume.
Boliden is a quality, low-cost integrated miner at a fair valuation with copper/electrification optionality priced cheaply. HOLD with a positive lean, medium conviction; base target SEK 600 (+5%).
A metals-price pullback toward the low-SEK 500s, near the reverse-DCF floor, would offer a better cyclical entry; copper strength is the upside catalyst.