SEB is a large, diversified Nordic corporate & investment bank — net interest income, fees and trading, deposit-funded — with a dominant large-corporate franchise, a growing Baltic book and SEK 2,863bn in Wealth & Asset Management. LTM net profit SEK 30.7bn on operating income SEK 75.5bn.
Returns are strong for the frame: ROE 14.3% / RoTE 14.7% sits ~4pt above a ~10% cost of equity, and best-in-class efficiency (cost/income 0.41) plus a fortress CET1 of 17.5% (~290bp buffer) make earnings resilient even as lower rates trim NII.
On the ROE/P-B frame the equity is fully-to-slightly-richly valued — 1.85× TBV against a Gordon-justified ~1.6-1.66×. Quality is not in question; the price already pays for it, so the swing factors are the rate cycle and asset quality rather than a discount.
Gordon fair P/TBV ≈ (RoTE 14.7% − g 3%)/(Kₑ 10% − g 3%) ≈ 1.66×, versus the current 1.85× — a ~12% premium the franchise quality and capital return partly justify but which leaves little margin of safety. P/E 12.6× is undemanding in absolute terms but not cheap for a bank facing NII headwinds.
Base SEK 205 (+3%) holding ROE near mid-14s with capital return support; bull SEK 240 (rates stabilise/rise, positive jaws widen, buyback accretion); bear SEK 160 (rate-driven NII erosion and a Nordic/Baltic credit turn compress ROE).
Residual-income panel unavailable: non-positive book equity.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 240 | +21% | 30% | Rates stabilise/rise, positive jaws widen, buyback accretion |
| Base | SEK 205 | +3% | 45% | Fair-to-rich: holds mid-14s ROE with capital return; trades near/above Gordon P/TBV |
| Bear | SEK 160 | -19% | 25% | NII erosion + Nordic/Baltic credit turn compress ROE |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 204 | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Entrenched Nordic corporate & institutional relationships with high switching costs and geographic expansion runway.
Cost/income 0.41 and 'positive jaws' discipline — costs cut 8% y/y against 7% revenue decline in Q1.
CET1 17.5% (~290bp buffer) funds heavy capital return — SEK 21.5bn dividend + SEK 1.25bn/qtr buyback.
SEK 2,863bn AUM with continued positive net flows diversifies away from spread income.
Stage-3 loans just 0.43% of gross with 40.8% ECL coverage — no credit escalation.
SEB is a high-quality, well-capitalised Nordic corporate bank earning a solid ROE spread over its cost of equity, but the equity trades at a modest premium to its Gordon-justified P/TBV. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 205 (+3%) — own for capital return, not for a valuation discount.
Rate stabilisation and widening positive jaws are the upside; NII erosion and a credit turn are the principal risks. Not a BUY until either the price backs off or ROE re-rates higher.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit attributable to shareholders (LTM) | 30,736 | Income statement, quarterly / p.5 + FY p.5 📄 p.5 | LTM = FY2025 31,063 − Q1 2025 7,824 + Q1 2026 7,497. All profit is attributable to shareholders (no NCI), so reported net profit equals net income to parent. |
| Total operating income (LTM revenue) | 75,523 | Income statement, quarterly / p.5 + FY p.5 📄 p.5 | Bank revenue proxy = total operating income (NII + net fee & commission + net financial + net other). LTM = FY2025 76,939 − Q1 2025 19,822 + Q1 2026 18,406. |
| Total equity (group) | 215,450 | Balance sheet condensed + Statement of changes in equity / p.23 📄 p.23 | Latest-interim total equity used for stock ratios; declined from 230,263 at YE2025 mainly on the SEK 21.5bn dividend and buybacks. |
| Goodwill | 4,147 | Note 16. Own funds / p.41 📄 p.41 | Carrying amount of goodwill deducted from CET1; used to derive tangible equity. Card Norway goodwill fully impaired in Q4 2025 (IAC SEK -416m). |
| Intangible assets | 1,468 | Note 16. Own funds / p.41 📄 p.41 | Carrying amount of intangibles deducted from CET1; tangible equity = total equity − goodwill − intangibles = 215,450 − 4,147 − 1,468 = 209,835. |
| CET1 capital ratio | 0.175 | Key figures / p.6 📄 p.6 | 17.5% at 31 Mar 2026, ~290bp buffer above requirement — well capitalised, no escalation trigger. |
| Cost/income ratio | 0.41 | Key figures / p.6 📄 p.6 | 0.41 in Q1 2026 (0.42 FY2025) — best-in-class Nordic bank efficiency. |
| Stage-3 ECL coverage ratio (loans) | 0.408 | Credit risk / ECL coverage / p.33 📄 p.33 | 40.83% coverage on gross Stage-3 loans of SEK 10.3bn (Stage-3 = 0.43% of gross loans) — benign asset quality, no NPL escalation. |