Storskogen is an operating holding company that acquired ~100+ profitable private businesses (services, industry, trade) during the 2020–22 boom, funded with significant debt. Unlike a fair-value investment company, it consolidates its operating subsidiaries — so this is an operating/SOTP story, not a marked-NAV one. Adjusted ROIC of ~5% sits well below the 8% WACC and economic profit is −SEK 929M.
The equity trades ~24% below book (P/B 0.76), reflecting those sub-WACC returns and goodwill/leverage concerns. The thesis is a classic deleverager/turnaround: if Storskogen reduces debt and lifts operating returns toward the cost of capital, the below-book valuation is an opportunity; if not, the discount is deserved.
The frames disagree by design: the operating reverse-DCF (−74%) capitalises low NOPAT and reads expensive, while P/B 0.76 reads cheap on book. For a sub-WACC operating holding, the truth is in between — value depends on deleveraging and an operating-return recovery, not a marked NAV.
Base SEK 9 (−4%); bull SEK 13 (deleveraging plus margin/return recovery toward WACC re-rates the below-book equity); bear SEK 6 (low returns persist, further goodwill impairments).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 5% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 2/share (26% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 13 | ≥-50% | +44% | 30% | Deleveraging + return recovery re-rates below-book equity |
| Base | SEK 9 | ≥-50% | -1% | 40% | Sub-WACC reality vs below-book optionality |
| Bear | SEK 6 | ≥-50% | -34% | 30% | Low returns persist; goodwill impairments |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 9 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| 7.25% | 4 | 2 | 1 | -0 | -2 | -6 |
| 8.00% (base) | 2 | 1 | -0 | -2 | -3 | -8 |
| 8.75% | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3 | -5 | -9 |
| 9.50% | 1 | -1 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -10 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 9.05. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Debt reduction (asset sales, cash generation) is the core re-rating lever for the below-book equity.
P/B 0.76 — a discount that becomes opportunity if returns recover.
A large, diversified base of profitable private businesses generates cash for deleveraging.
Margin and capital-efficiency initiatives could lift ROIC toward the cost of capital.
Divesting weaker units could crystallise value and improve returns.
Storskogen is a deleverager: a serial acquirer with sub-WACC returns trading below book, where the thesis is debt reduction plus an operating-return recovery rather than a marked NAV. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 9 (−4%).
Successful deleveraging and return recovery re-rate the below-book equity; persistent sub-WACC returns and impairments are the principal risks.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.