SmartCraft provides vertical SaaS for the Nordic construction and trades sector (project management, field tools, estimating), a sticky, recurring-revenue franchise with high retention and a buy-and-build M&A strategy. A quality score of 76 and 11% adjusted ROIC reflect the SaaS economics.
The equity at SEK 15.6 embeds ~6.6% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF), and economic profit is small in absolute terms (+SEK 24M) on a small base. SaaS quality and growth are real, but the static reverse-DCF reads the equity as fully valued.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through modest net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 7.6–8.8 across scenarios — well below the SEK 15.6 price (~6.6% implied growth), a harsh-perpetuity reading for a high-retention SaaS compounder but a signal that the price embeds continued growth.
Base SEK 15.6 (flat); bull SEK 20 (recurring-revenue growth + accretive M&A + margin expansion); bear SEK 11 (Nordic construction-cycle softness slows new subscriptions).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~10.5%, limited by ROIC 11% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 8/share (49% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 20 | ≥10% | +31% | 30% | Recurring growth + accretive M&A + margin |
| Base | SEK 16 | ≥10% | +2% | 45% | Full: ~6.6% implied growth, SaaS quality |
| Bear | SEK 11 | ≥10% | -28% | 25% | Nordic construction-cycle softness |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 16 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 7.25% | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 8.00% (base) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 8.75% | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 9.50% | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 15.30. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Mission-critical construction software with high retention and recurring revenue.
A disciplined acquisition strategy in fragmented Nordic construction software.
Subscription growth plus upsell drives durable compounding.
High-quality SaaS economics and cash conversion.
Construction-sector digitalisation is a structural demand driver.
SmartCraft is a high-quality Nordic construction-SaaS compounder at a full price on the reverse-DCF. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 15.6 (flat) — accumulate on construction-cycle weakness.
Recurring-revenue growth plus accretive M&A is the upside; construction cyclicality and full valuation are the principal considerations.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.