ROCKWOOL B is economically identical to ROCK-A — both are Rockwool International A/S shares. The B-share (1 vote) is more liquid and the primary instrument for institutional investors; the A-share (10 votes) trades at a modest premium (~0.5%) for the voting rights. Post-April 2025 1:10 split, prices converge near DKK 199-200 per share.
The dominant FY event: ROCKWOOL lost control of its Russian business on 13 Jan 2026 (presidential decree → external administration), booking a EUR 392M one-off write-off and reclassifying Russia as discontinued operation. On a continuing-operations basis (removes the write-off AND Russia's recurring ~EUR 78M EBIT gone for good), adjusted ROIC = 11.6% > 8% WACC, EP +EUR 116M.
The company is mid-capex-supercycle — new plants in US (Statesboro, GA), India (Hyderabad), and Romania — depressing near-term FCF on a fortress 70%-equity balance sheet. The FY2026 EBIT margin guidance of 13-14% (vs LTM ~13%) confirms trough, not deterioration.
On adjusted continuing NOPAT, ROCKWOOL trades at ~1.9x invested capital / ~6% NOPAT-to-EV on trough margins. Revenue LTM continuing EUR 3,616M; Adj NOPAT EUR 371M; EV EUR 6,106M.
Base DKK 215 (roughly fair) on margin recovery toward 13-14% FY2026 guide. Bull DKK 255 if pricing increases stick and capex cycle delivers. Bear DKK 165 on construction-cycle weakness or energy-cost spikes. Note: targets in DKK (reporting currency EUR, but listed in DKK; current price ~DKK 199-200).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 8.9% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 12% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +3.6 pp); the no-growth value is €24/share (12% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €255 | ≥11% | +28% | 30% | Pricing sticks; capex cycle delivers; margins recover; Russia loss absorbed |
| Base | €215 | ≥11% | +8% | 45% | Margin recovery toward 13-14% FY2026 guide; fairly valued at DKK 215 |
| Bear | €165 | ≥11% | -17% | 25% | Construction-cycle weakness or energy-cost spikes; trough extended |
| Prob-weighted | €214 | — | +8% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 48 |
| 7.25% | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 38 |
| 8.00% (base) | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 |
| 8.75% | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 9.50% | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €199.30. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Decarbonisation + fire-safety regulation drive structural stone-wool demand; ~22% gross margin pricing power.
New US/India/Romania plants add future capacity; yield on investment as plants ramp.
Adj ROIC 11.6% > 8% WACC, EP +EUR 116M; underlying ~19% pre-Russia.
~70% equity ratio — funds capex cycle and absorbed the EUR 392M Russia write-off.
ROCKWOOL B and A are economically identical; B-share is more liquid. Wide-moat, world-class-underlying insulation leader navigating Russia exit and capex supercycle — quality intact (EP still +EUR 116M). Priced at ~1.9x IC on trough margins: fairly valued, not cheap. HOLD/MED; base DKK 215.
Accumulate on cyclical weakness rather than here; energy-efficiency demand moat and capex cycle are the long-term drivers.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (LTM continuing ops) | 3,616 | Main figures p.2 / IS p.9 | Q1 2026 report restates FY2025 to continuing operations: FY cont revenue 3,616. LTM = 3,616 − Q1'25 906 + Q1'26 906 = 3,616. Reconciles to annual-report revenue 3,877 (incl. Russia) minus Russia revenue 261 (note 1.5 / disc-op p.14). |
| Revenue (FY2025 incl. Russia) | 3,877 | Statement of profit and loss | Full-year group revenue incl. Russia per the consolidated income statement; note 2.1 (p.129) splits Insulation 3,206 / Systems 671 external. |
| EBIT (LTM continuing ops) | 472 | Main figures p.2 / IS p.9 | FY cont EBIT 492; LTM = 492 − Q1'25 140 + Q1'26 120 = 472. Continuing-ops EBIT already excludes both Russia's EUR 78m operating EBIT and the EUR 392m value adjustment. |
| EBIT before Russia value adj (FY, incl. Russia) | 570 | Statement of profit and loss | Company's headline APM. Reported EBIT of 178 = 570 minus the 392m loss from value adjustment of the Russian business. |
| EBITDA (FY2025 group) | 864 | Key figures table p.3 / p.10 | EBITDA 864 MEUR = EBIT 570 + D&A 294. EBITDA margin 22.3% (down 2.1pp vs FY2024 24.4%). Confirmed independently: EBIT 864 − EBITDA bridge = D&A 294 (note 3.4). |
| Amortisation, depreciation & impairment (LTM cont) | 283 | note 3.4 p.138 (FY group 294) | FY cont D&A 283 (group 294 minus Russia 11). LTM = 283 − 67 + 67 = 283. Group split (note 3.4): intangibles 25 + PP&E 239 + ROU 30 = 294, of which ~22 is one-off factory-closure impairment. |
| Capex — gross PP&E investment (FY2025) | 486 | 5-yr overview p.10 / note 3.2 p.135 | Gross investment in PP&E EUR 486m (additions, note 3.2). Cash-flow purchase of PP&E was 461 (p.121). Press-release headline capex EUR 473m. vs D&A ~283 => heavy growth capex; EUR 520m tangible assets under construction. |
| Goodwill (FY2025) | 114 | Statement of financial position / note 3.1 p.134 | Goodwill carrying amount EUR 114m (Insulation CGUs 89 + Systems 25). China/Yangzhou goodwill of 5 fully impaired in 2025 after factory closure (note 3.1 / 3.5). |
| One-off: Russian value adjustment (FY2025) | 392 | note 1.5 | Loss from value adjustment of the Russian business EUR 392m = full impairment of net assets 475 offset by intra-group loan liability 83. Excluded from adjusted figures via the continuing-ops basis (sits in discontinued operations). |
| One-off: factory-closure impairments (FY2025) | 22 | note 3.2 p.135 + note 3.1 p.134 | PP&E impairment 16 (Norway + China factory closures) + goodwill 5 (China) + customer relationships 1 (China) = 22. Normalized as non-recurring add-back to adjusted EBIT. |
| Lease liability (FY2025) | 82 | note 3.3 p.136 | Lease liabilities non-current 49 + current 33 = 82 (ROU assets 79). Q1 2026 ROU 76 => lease liab ~79. EXCLUDED from IC (peripheral offices/warehouses/vehicles, ~3% of operating assets). |
| Interest-bearing debt (Q1 2026) | 434 | p.5 net debt + p.10 BS / FY note 5.4 p.150 | Q1 2026 net IB debt EUR 306m (p.5, leverage 0.4) + cash 207 = gross IB debt incl. leases 513; less lease liabilities ~79 = 434 borrowings/bank debt. |
| Cash and cash equivalents (Q1 2026) | 207 | Statement of financial position | Cash EUR 207m at 31 Mar 2026 (elevated by pre-funding the April 2026 dividend). Operational cash = 2% × revenue = 72.3; excess cash 134.7 subtracted from IC. |
| Total equity (Q1 2026) | 2,828 | Statement of financial position | Equity attributable to shareholders EUR 2,828m (share capital 28, FX translation −22, proposed dividend 118, retained earnings 2,705, hedging −1); NCI 0. accumulated_oci = −22 − 1 = −23 stripped => equity_ex_oci 2,851. |
| Tax (normalized effective rate) | 0.25 | note 6.1 | Effective tax rate BEFORE the Russian value adjustment = 25.0% (Danish statutory 22.0% plus non-Danish mix). Reported all-in rate 85.5% is distorted by the largely non-deductible 392m Russian write-off (+60.5pp). LTM continuing-ops tax expense = 115 (FY 118 − Q1'25 32 + Q1'26 29). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.