Prevas is a Swedish technical-consultancy and product-development firm specialising in industrial IT, embedded systems and digitalisation for industry. Adjusted ROIC of ~8% only matches the 8% WACC, leaving thin economic profit (+SEK 2M) — a people-based consultancy whose returns depend on utilisation.
The equity at SEK 79 embeds ~7% perpetual growth (reverse-DCF, ~23% below). Niche expertise in industrial digitalisation is the support; thin returns and consultancy cyclicality are the cautions.
Reverse-DCF fair value runs SEK 60–62 across scenarios — below the SEK 79 price (~7% implied growth). Full for a thin-return consultancy; utilisation and M&A are the swing factors.
Base SEK 78 (−2%); bull SEK 95 (utilisation/pricing + industrial-digitalisation demand); bear SEK 60 (a consultancy/industrial slowdown).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.8%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 60/share (79% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 95 | ≥8% | +24% | 30% | Utilisation/pricing + industrial-digitalisation demand |
| Base | SEK 78 | ≥8% | +2% | 45% | Full: thin spread, ~7% implied growth |
| Bear | SEK 60 | -0% | -22% | 25% | Consultancy/industrial slowdown |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 79 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 87 | 92 | 95 | 100 | 103 | 111 |
| 7.25% | 72 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 81 |
| 8.00% (base) | 60 | 61 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 60 |
| 8.75% | 51 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 44 |
| 9.50% | 45 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 31 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 76.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Specialist industrial-IT/embedded expertise supports demand.
A people-based consultancy with low capital needs at high utilisation.
Higher utilisation and pricing would lift thin margins.
Acquisitions could add scale.
Industry 4.0/digitalisation underpins long-run demand.
Prevas is a niche industrial-IT consultancy with thin returns at a full price. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 78 (−2%).
Utilisation/pricing-led margin gains are the upside; consultancy cyclicality is the risk.
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