Orkla is a Nordic branded-consumer-goods group (foods, confectionery, ingredients) restructured into portfolio companies, plus significant investments — notably a ~42% stake in paints leader Jotun, Hydro Power and Orkla India. Operating adjusted ROIC of 8.8% and +NOK 561M economic profit understate the whole, because the investment portfolio is not in the operating model.
The reverse-DCF's ~−37% reflects only the branded-goods operations; the Jotun stake and other investments are substantial unmodelled value. The thesis is a sum-of-the-parts/conglomerate-discount story rather than an operating-multiple one.
On the operating reverse-DCF alone the equity screens expensive (NOK 63–68 vs NOK 103), but that excludes the investment portfolio — Jotun in particular carries large value. The relevant frame is sum-of-the-parts: branded foods at a fair multiple plus the marked portfolio, less a conglomerate discount.
Base NOK 105 (+2%) holding the conglomerate discount; bull NOK 125 (portfolio value crystallises — Jotun re-rates or is monetised); bear NOK 85 (consumer/cost pressure on foods plus a wider discount).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~8.5%, limited by ROIC 9% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 63/share (63% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 125 | ≥8% | +26% | 30% | Portfolio (Jotun) value crystallises/monetises |
| Base | NOK 105 | ≥8% | +6% | 45% | SOTP; conglomerate discount holds |
| Bear | NOK 85 | ≥8% | -14% | 25% | Food-cost/consumer pressure + wider discount |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 106 | — | +7% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 89 | 95 | 99 | 104 | 109 | 119 |
| 7.25% | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 90 |
| 8.00% (base) | 63 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |
| 8.75% | 54 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 55 | 53 |
| 9.50% | 48 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 41 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 99.25. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A ~42% holding in a high-quality global paints leader — major unmodelled value.
Defensive Nordic branded-food positions with steady cash flow.
The shift to a portfolio/holding structure can narrow the conglomerate discount.
Additional portfolio assets add value and optionality.
Strong free cash flow (10.6% yield) funds dividends and investment.
Orkla is a conglomerate whose value lies as much in its investment portfolio (Jotun) as in branded foods — the operating reverse-DCF understates it. HOLD, medium conviction; base target NOK 105 (+2%), with portfolio realisation the upside.
A wider conglomerate discount toward NOK 85 or evidence of portfolio monetisation would shift the risk/reward.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
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How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.