Multiconsult is a leading Norwegian multidisciplinary engineering and design consultancy exposed to infrastructure, energy, water and the built environment — structurally supported themes. It is a people-based, capital-light business, but adjusted ROIC of 11.6% translates into only thin economic profit (+NOK 92M) on its capital base, and reported free cash flow is currently negative.
The reverse-DCF implies the NOK 152 price embeds ~4.9% perpetual growth, against thin economics and a small, domestically-concentrated franchise. The equity looks fully-to-richly valued relative to its through-cycle worth.
Bridging adjusted NOPAT through net debt, reverse-DCF fair value runs NOK 102–132 across growth scenarios — below the NOK 152 price (~4.9% implied growth). For a small consultancy with thin economic profit and negative current free cash flow, that is a full valuation.
Base NOK 135 (−11%, modest de-rate); bull NOK 175 (utilisation and pricing lift margins, energy/infrastructure demand stays strong); bear NOK 110 (a Norwegian construction/public-budget slowdown hits billings).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~10.2%, limited by ROIC 11% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 92/share (62% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 175 | ≥10% | +18% | 30% | Utilisation/pricing lift margins; demand strong |
| Base | NOK 135 | ≥10% | -9% | 40% | Modest de-rate; thin spread, full growth |
| Bear | NOK 110 | +8% | -26% | 30% | Norwegian construction/public-budget slowdown |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 140 | — | -6% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 140 | 154 | 163 | 179 | 190 | 218 |
| 7.25% | 112 | 122 | 128 | 139 | 146 | 164 |
| 8.00% (base) | 92 | 98 | 103 | 110 | 115 | 126 |
| 8.75% | 76 | 81 | 84 | 88 | 91 | 97 |
| 9.50% | 64 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 74 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 148.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Energy transition, water and infrastructure underpin multi-year billable demand.
A people-based consultancy with low capital needs when utilisation is high.
A leading Norwegian position provides scale and brand in its core market.
Higher utilisation and pricing would lift margins toward peers.
Norwegian public infrastructure spending supports a project pipeline.
Multiconsult is a decent consultancy whose thin economics, negative current free cash flow and full implied growth leave the equity fully-to-richly valued. We rate it HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target NOK 135 (−11%).
Improving utilisation/cash conversion or a pullback toward the reverse-DCF range (low-NOK 110s) would improve the risk/reward.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.