ITAB Group supplies store fittings, checkout systems (including self-checkout) and in-store solutions to retailers. It is a low-margin (~5% EBIT), cyclical business tied to retail capital expenditure, with adjusted ROIC of 6.3% below the 8% WACC and economic profit of −SEK 124M.
The market's own implied perpetual growth is negative — it prices a decline, consistent with structural pressure on physical-retail fit-out spend. Self-checkout/automation is the offset; sub-WACC returns and retail-capex cyclicality are the cautions.
Reverse-DCF fair value runs ~SEK 6–10 across scenarios — below the SEK 15.5 price; the negative implied growth reflects structural retail-capex pressure. A leveraged, cyclical, low-return business.
Base SEK 14 (−10%); bull SEK 20 (self-checkout/automation demand + margin + retail-capex recovery); bear SEK 10 (retail-capex weakness persists).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~6.0%, limited by ROIC 6% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is SEK 10/share (68% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 20 | ≥6% | +34% | 30% | Self-checkout/automation demand + margin + recovery |
| Base | SEK 14 | ≥6% | -6% | 40% | Sub-WACC; market prices decline |
| Bear | SEK 10 | ≥6% | -33% | 30% | Retail-capex weakness persists |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 15 | — | -2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
| 7.25% | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| 8.00% (base) | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| 8.75% | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -2 |
| 9.50% | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 14.90. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Retail-automation (self-checkout) demand is the principal growth offset — the bull case.
An installed base supports some recurring revenue.
A leading European position in store fittings/checkout.
Mix shift to solutions/automation could lift returns.
10.7% free-cash yield aids deleveraging.
ITAB is a low-margin, sub-WACC retail-fixtures business the market prices for decline, with self-checkout/automation the offset. HOLD with a bearish lean, medium conviction; base target SEK 14 (−10%).
An automation-led mix shift lifting returns is the upside; structural retail-capex pressure is the risk.
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NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
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How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.