Eidesvik Offshore operates offshore supply and subsea-support vessels serving the energy and offshore-wind markets. Despite an improving offshore-vessel market, the company currently earns far below its cost of capital — adjusted ROIC of 1.5% against an 8% WACC — and destroys economic value (−NOK 200M), with sharply negative free cash flow (−19% yield).
The screen's middling valuation score does not capture that the reverse-DCF equity value is negative at every growth assumption: with returns far below WACC and a levered, capital-intensive fleet, the equity is the riskiest claim in the structure.
Capitalising adjusted NOPAT and bridging through net debt leaves a negative implied equity value across scenarios — the NOK 16 price rests entirely on a strong offshore-vessel/wind upcycle and deleveraging that are not yet evident in the cash flows. With negative economic profit and negative free cash flow, this is a value-trap, not value.
Base NOK 12 (−25%, de-rate toward distressed economics); bull NOK 24 (a genuine offshore-vessel/wind upcycle restores returns above WACC and free cash flow turns positive); bear NOK 8 (continued cash burn and refinancing stress).
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~-50.0%, limited by ROIC 1% ≈ WACC 8%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK -15/share (-99% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 24 | ≥-50% | +55% | 25% | Offshore-vessel/wind upcycle restores >WACC returns |
| Base | NOK 12 | ≥-50% | -22% | 35% | De-rate toward distressed economics |
| Bear | NOK 8 | ≥-50% | -48% | 40% | Continued cash burn + refinancing stress |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 13 | — | -13% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | -18 | -25 | -30 | -38 | -45 | -65 |
| 7.25% | -16 | -23 | -28 | -36 | -42 | -61 |
| 8.00% (base) | -15 | -21 | -26 | -34 | -40 | -58 |
| 8.75% | -14 | -20 | -25 | -32 | -38 | -55 |
| 9.50% | -14 | -20 | -24 | -31 | -37 | -53 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 15.45. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Tightening supply/subsea and offshore-wind demand could lift dayrates — the bull path.
Subsea-support work for offshore wind is a structural medium-term demand vector.
If utilisation and rates rise, high fixed costs amplify earnings recovery.
A specialised vessel fleet provides some asset value beneath the equity.
Positive free cash flow, if achieved, would transfer value to equity.
Eidesvik is a distressed-economics offshore-vessel operator whose equity carries negative through-cycle value despite an optically unremarkable screen score. We rate it SELL/Avoid, medium conviction; base target NOK 12 (−25%).
Only a sustained offshore-vessel/wind upcycle that pushes returns above WACC and turns free cash flow positive would change the thesis.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.