C-RAD is a high-quality, organically-built surface-guided-radiation-therapy (SGRT) leader — patient positioning and motion management for cancer radiotherapy (Catalyst/Sentinel) — with >2,000 systems, ~30% share across ~60 countries and a genuine installed-base moat that is monetising into a fast-growing service annuity (Services +30%, 12-month service backlog +34%). The balance sheet is a fortress (net cash ~SEK 158M, no bank debt, first dividend).
Adjusted ROIC ~20% and EP +SEK 24M confirm real value creation even after expensing all R&D (the APM divergence is purely the R&D-capitalisation reversal). The swing factor is the new CEO's transformation program targeting ≥10% organic growth and a 25% EBIT margin (~2.3x the current ~11%) — Q1 2026 already showed an underlying inflection (ex-one-offs EBIT margin 21%, gross margin 73%, order intake +19%).
At PEBV ~1.3 and EV/IC ~3.5x the stock is full on current ~11% margins (~6% FCF yield) — the upside is the margin-expansion optionality toward the 25% target.
Base SEK 26 on continued service-annuity growth and a partial margin ramp; bull SEK 34 if the 25% EBIT-margin target is delivered; bear SEK 18 on revenue volatility or execution stumbles.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 17.4% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 20% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +11.6 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 22/share (64% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 34 | +17% | -1% | 35% | 25% EBIT-margin target delivered |
| Base | SEK 26 | +7% | -24% | 45% | Service-annuity growth + partial margin ramp |
| Bear | SEK 18 | -8% | -48% | 20% | Revenue volatility or execution stumbles |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 27 | — | -21% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 45 |
| 7.25% | 25 | 27 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 38 |
| 8.00% (base) | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 32 |
| 8.75% | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 28 |
| 9.50% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 25 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 34.30. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
>2,000 systems, ~30% share; Services +30%, 12-mo service backlog +34% — recurring, high-margin.
Transformation targets 25% EBIT margin vs ~11%; Q1 ex-one-offs margin already 21%.
Adjusted ROIC ~20%, EP +SEK 24M, net cash ~SEK 158M, clean accounting.
Q1 order intake +19%; gross margin 73%.
C-RAD is a high-quality SGRT leader with a real installed-base moat, top-tier ~20% ROIC and a net-cash balance sheet, full on current margins but with genuine margin-expansion optionality. HOLD, medium conviction with a BUY-on-execution tilt; base SEK 26.
Re-rate to a clear BUY on evidence the 25% margin target is being delivered (Q1's 21% underlying margin is the early signal); revenue volatility is the main downside.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (LTM Q1 2026) | 428 | Q1 consolidated income statement p.9 (FY 441.9 - Q1'25 118.8 + Q1'26 104.7) 📄 p.9 | LTM top line; FY anchor from AR IS p.44, quarters from Q1 IS. |
| EBIT reported (LTM Q1 2026) | 47.2 | Q1 income statement p.9 (FY 45.1 - Q1'25 10.0 + Q1'26 12.1) 📄 p.9 | LTM reported operating profit; base for adjusted EBIT. |
| Capitalized development (own-work, P&L credit) LTM | 11.6 | 'Capitalised development costs' line, Q1 IS p.9 + AR IS p.44 📄 p.9 | Own-work capitalized that inflates EBIT; the amount we reverse out (gross of amortization) under the R&D treatment. |
| Amortization of capitalized development (FY2025) | 5.093 | AR Note 13 Intangible assets p.63 (dev-specific amortization row) 📄 p.63 | The amortization of previously-capitalized development already in EBIT; added back into the reversal so we only strip the NET capitalization benefit (-11.6 + 5.4 = -6.25 LTM). |
| Goodwill | 0 | AR Note 13 Intangible assets p.63 📄 p.63 | No acquisition goodwill — intangibles are internally-generated capitalized development plus de-minimis patents; hence no PPA amortization to reject. |
| Restructuring one-off (Q1 2026, EBIT impact) | 9.5 | Q1 report p.5 / p.2 ('excluding one-offs of MSEK 9.5, EBIT amounted to MSEK 22') 📄 p.5 | Non-recurring reorganization/severance from the new transformation program; normalized (added back) within the LTM window. |
| Operating FX loss in EBIT (FY2025) | -15.6 | AR Note 9 Other operating income/expenses p.61 📄 p.61 | Large unrealized USD/EUR revaluation inside FY EBIT; on an LTM basis it nets to approx -0.1, so it is disclosed but not separately normalized. |
| Lease liabilities (total, Q1 2026) | 12.9 | AR Note 22 Leases p.72 (9.4 long-term + ~3.5 current); Q1 BS p.11 confirms 9.4 LT 📄 p.72 | Office/vehicle leases — peripheral, excluded from invested capital; lease interest already below EBIT (IFRS 16), so no NOPAT add-back. |
| Interest-bearing debt | 0 | AR Note 25 net-debt table p.76 ('Loans' column = 0) 📄 p.76 | No bank borrowings; the only financing liability is leases and the MSEK 20 Nordea overdraft is undrawn — confirms net-cash profile. |
| Cash & equivalents (Q1 2026) | 135 | Q1 consolidated balance sheet p.11 📄 p.11 | Snapshot cash; 2% of LTM revenue (8.6) kept as operational, the remaining 126.6 stripped as excess cash from IC. |
| Total equity (Q1 2026) | 348 | Q1 consolidated balance sheet p.11 📄 p.11 | IC anchor; net of translation-reserve OCI (17.5) gives equity_ex_oci 330.6. |
| Tax (normalized rate) | 0.206 | AR Note 11 Tax p.62 (Swedish statutory 20.6%) 📄 p.62 | GAAP effective rate is distorted by non-recognition of foreign loss carryforwards; the 20.6% Swedish statutory marginal rate is used for NOPAT. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.