Berner Industrier is a decentralised Swedish industrial group — value-adding distribution/agency of industrial components plus own products across niche segments. FY2025 revenue grew ~4% to ~SEK 1.0bn at a ~10% EBITA margin, with ROIC ~22% (acquisition amortization kept as a real cost; goodwill in IC) and economic profit +SEK 43m over a 10% WACC — a ~12pp spread. Leverage is low (~0.9x EBITDA incl leases).
The caution is that FY2025's margin step came off a depressed FY2024 base (EBIT +73%), so part is cyclical recovery rather than structural improvement, and the new >=15% EBITA-growth target + the Autofric/Typhonix acquisitions are unproven. At ~20.5x P/E / ~6.2% FCF yield (after a pullback from the ~SEK 104 high) it is moderate-to-fully valued. Quality-positive, watch the margin durability + M&A returns.
At ~20.5x P/E / EV/IC ~4.2x / ~6.2% FCF yield with ROIC ~22%, Berner is fairly-to-fully valued; the question is how much of the FY2025 margin step is durable vs cyclical.
Base SEK 78 (~current; quality at a fair price); bull SEK 95 if the 10% EBITA margin + >=15% growth target hold and M&A compounds; bear SEK 55 on an industrial downturn / margin give-back.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 19.7% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 22% on capital against a 10% cost of capital (spread +12.0 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 45/share (58% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 95 | ≥21% | +22% | 30% | 10% EBITA margin + >=15% growth target hold; M&A compounds |
| Base | SEK 78 | +20% | +0% | 45% | Quality at a fair price |
| Bear | SEK 55 | +7% | -29% | 25% | Industrial downturn / margin give-back |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 77 | — | -0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 57 | 62 | 66 | 73 | 77 | 90 |
| 9.25% | 50 | 55 | 58 | 64 | 68 | 78 |
| 10.00% (base) | 45 | 49 | 52 | 57 | 60 | 69 |
| 10.75% | 41 | 45 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 38 | 41 | 43 | 46 | 48 | 55 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 77.70. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Technical service + supplier relationships in niche segments.
Decentralised serial acquisitions (Autofric/Typhonix) extend the runway.
Holding the ~10% EBITA margin would confirm structural improvement.
~0.9x EBITDA — capacity for more bolt-ons.
Berner Industrier is a low-leverage, ROIC-~22% Swedish industrial-distribution compounder, but FY2025's margin step is partly cyclical and the valuation (~20.5x P/E) is moderate-to-full. HOLD; base SEK 78.
Watch whether the 10% EBITA margin + >=15% growth target hold and what the new acquisitions earn.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 1,000 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income / Note 5 | Net sales line FY2025 = 1,000,248 thousand (prior year 962,656). Total sales incl. other operating income 1,005,147. Up 3.9% YoY. |
| EBIT (operating profit) | 98.848 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income | EBIT line = 98,848 thousand (prior year 57,277). Used directly as adjusted EBIT (acquisition amortisation retained, no add-backs). Segment split (Note 4, p. 48): T&D 26,210; E&E 85,789; central -13,152. |
| EBITA (company APM) / acquisition-amortisation bridge | 100 | Definitions of alternative performance measures | EBITA = earnings before amortisation/impairment of intangibles arising from business combinations = 100.2 (margin 10.0%). EBITA - EBIT = 100.201 - 98.848 = 1.353 = acquisition-related intangible amortisation, which mttssn keeps as a cost. |
| Depreciation & amortisation (total) | 38.306 | Income statement line; Notes 13/14/15; Note 26 | Total D&A = 38,306 thousand. Split: intangibles amortisation 1,353 (Note 13: distribution rights 184, software 216, other acquired intangibles 953); PP&E depreciation ~5,446 (Note 14: buildings 428 + machinery 5,018); right-of-use lease depreciation 31,506 (Note 15). Cross-checked via Note 26 non-cash items (38,695 incl. minor disposal/provision items). |
| Net financial items | -6.905 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income / Note 9 | Financial income 3,549 less financial expenses 10,454 = net financial items -6,905 (prior year -10,211; improved on lower debt). Sits below EBIT; lease interest included here, not reclassified. |
| Income tax / effective rate | -19.688 | Income statement / Note 11; directors' report p. 29 | Income tax -19,688 on earnings before tax 91,943 = effective rate 21.4% (directors' report states 21.4% vs 21.7% prior year). Statutory 20.6% used for NOPAT per methodology. |
| Earnings for the period (net income) | 72.255 | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income / Note 12 | Earnings for the period 72,255 thousand (prior year 36,860); +96%. EPS before and after dilution SEK 3.79 (1.96). All attributable to parent (no NCI). |
| Goodwill | 240 | Consolidated Statement of Financial Position / Note 13 | Goodwill 240,335 thousand at 31 Dec 2025 (prior 196,011); +44,324 driven by the Autofric business combination (+45,931 cost, less -1,607 FX). Not amortised; tested for impairment, none required (Note 13.1). Kept in invested capital. |
| Total intangible assets | 285 | Consolidated Statement of Financial Position / Note 13 | Total intangibles 284,904 = goodwill 240,335 + distribution rights 245 + trademarks 32,497 + internally generated software 211 + other intangibles 11,616. Trademarks indefinite-life, not amortised. |
| Total equity | 314 | Consolidated Statement of Financial Position / Statement of Changes in Equity (p. 36) | Total equity attributable to Parent Company shareholders 313,841 at 31 Dec 2025 (prior 250,590): share capital 636, other contributed capital 41,875, other reserves -1,131, retained earnings 272,461. No non-controlling interests. accumulated_oci = other reserves -1,131 (translation + hedging). |
| Interest-bearing bank debt | 85 | Consolidated Statement of Financial Position / Note 22 | Borrowings from credit institutions: non-current 65,000 + current 20,000 = 85,000 thousand. Lease liabilities of 78,427 are separate and excluded from invested capital. Directors' report (p. 29) states total interest-bearing net debt incl. leases of 100.1. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 63.323 | Consolidated Statement of Financial Position / Notes 17, 20 | Cash and cash equivalents 63,323 thousand at 31 Dec 2025 (prior 75,413). 20.0 (~2% of revenue) retained as operational cash; 43.3 treated as excess and stripped from IC. |
| Shares outstanding (both classes) | 19.069 | Share data / Note 12 | 1,250,000 A shares + 17,819,398 B shares = 19,069,398 total shares at 31 Dec 2025. Equal economic rights; A shares 10 votes, B shares 1 vote. Used in full for market cap with verified price SEK 77.70. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.