Avanza is a leading Swedish digital savings and brokerage platform, a capital-light, scale-driven franchise with a large, sticky base of savings capital, strong net inflows and a 29% return on equity. It monetises client assets via brokerage, fund and net-interest income.
For a capital-light growth platform, P/B (5.86×) overstates richness — the relevant lens is earnings: ~20× P/E for a 29%-ROE, growing platform is full but not extreme. The franchise quality is real; the valuation prices continued savings-capital and customer growth.
P/B and the Gordon formula understate a capital-light platform's value; on ~20× earnings the equity is fully valued for a 29%-ROE compounder with savings-inflow and net-interest optionality, but with no margin of safety.
Base SEK 340 (flat) on steady inflows; bull SEK 420 (strong savings inflows + higher market levels + net-interest tailwind); bear SEK 250 (a market downturn compresses asset-based revenue and trading).
The operating reverse-DCF (NOPAT / invested capital / WACC) does not apply to a balance-sheet business — leverage is the raw material and "net debt" is not meaningful. The equity is valued on residual income: book equity plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, discounted at Ke; the single-stage lens is the Gordon fair price-to-book, (ROE−g)/(Ke−g). The market prices in a sustainable ROE of 43.3% vs 28.9% currently earned; at a sustained 28.9% ROE the warranted P/B is 4.15× (SEK 241/sh, -37%).
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. ROE | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 420 | 47% | +11% | 30% | Strong inflows + higher markets + NII tailwind |
| Base | SEK 340 | 39% | -10% | 45% | Full on ~20× earnings; steady inflows |
| Bear | SEK 250 | 30% | -34% | 25% | Market downturn compresses asset-based revenue |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 342 | — | -10% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| Ke \ ROE | 10% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 26% | 30% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | 77 | 129 | 180 | 232 | 283 | 335 | 386 |
| 9.25% | 66 | 110 | 155 | 199 | 243 | 287 | 331 |
| 10.00% (base) | 58 | 97 | 135 | 174 | 212 | 251 | 290 |
| 10.75% | 52 | 86 | 120 | 155 | 189 | 223 | 258 |
| 11.50% | 46 | 77 | 108 | 139 | 170 | 201 | 232 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 379.20. For a financial the surface is dominated by cost of equity and sustainable ROE — not unit growth.
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A leading Swedish savings/brokerage platform with scale and brand — the moat.
An asset-light fee/spread model with exceptional returns and cash conversion.
Continued net new savings capital compounds the revenue base.
Client-cash net interest adds a rate-sensitive earnings stream.
Scale and low-cost operations support a structural cost advantage.
Avanza is a dominant, capital-light digital savings platform earning a 29% ROE at a full ~20× earnings. HOLD, medium conviction; base target SEK 340 (flat) — accumulate on a market/flow scare.
Strong inflows plus a net-interest tailwind are the upside; market sensitivity is the principal risk.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: Not available from structured data
Company add-backs we reject: Not available without footnote extraction
Pages read — FY: — · Q: —
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.