Genmab earns most of its profit from royalties on partnered antibodies — above all DARZALEX/daratumumab via J&J (~69% of total revenue) — plus its own/partnered products (EPKINLY, TIVDAK) and a deep pipeline. The legacy engine is superb: FY2025 revenue ~$3.7bn (+19%), and ROIC on the pre-Merus capital base is ~44%. On 12 Dec 2025 it closed the ~$8bn Merus acquisition (petosemtamab), funded by ~$5.5bn of new debt + its securities book, flipping the balance sheet to net debt ~$3.7bn.
That makes the rating a capital-allocation question: blended GAAP ROIC is ~8% (below the 9% WACC) and economic profit is -$100m on the post-deal capital base, because ~$8.5bn of acquired IPR&D is pre-revenue. It is cheap on legacy cash flows (~16x P/E, ~7% FCF yield) but the marginal ~$8bn is a high-variance, sub-WACC bet, layered on DARZALEX royalty concentration with a finite patent life. Quality engine, big uncertain bet.
Cheap on the legacy royalty engine (~16x P/E, ~7% FCF yield), but the ~$8bn Merus bet deploys marginal capital below WACC into pre-revenue IPR&D — the swing factor.
Base $255 (legacy cash flows fairly valued; Merus optionality not yet paid for); bull $330 if petosemtamab/Rina-S de-risk and DARZALEX durability extends; bear $185 on a DARZALEX cliff/erosion + a Merus pipeline setback.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~7.6%, limited by ROIC 8% ≈ WACC 9%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is DKK 566/share (35% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | DKK 2,138 | ≥8% | +32% | 30% | Petosemtamab/Rina-S de-risk; DARZALEX durability extends |
| Base | DKK 1,652 | ≥8% | +2% | 45% | Legacy cash flows fair; Merus not yet paid for |
| Bear | DKK 1,198 | ≥8% | -26% | 25% | DARZALEX cliff/erosion + Merus pipeline setback |
| Prob-weighted | DKK 1,684 | — | +4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | 822 | 846 | 860 | 873 | 878 | 871 |
| 8.25% | 678 | 682 | 681 | 671 | 659 | 605 |
| 9.00% (base) | 566 | 556 | 544 | 517 | 492 | 403 |
| 9.75% | 477 | 456 | 436 | 396 | 362 | 247 |
| 10.50% | 404 | 375 | 349 | 299 | 257 | 123 |
Green = fair value above the current price of DKK 1,616.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
The dominant cash engine (~69% of revenue) while patents run.
EPKINLY/TIVDAK + petosemtamab/Rina-S are the next legs.
~44% ROIC ex-IPR&D — the underlying franchise is exceptional.
~7% FCF yield funds debt paydown + R&D.
Genmab is a cash-rich antibody-royalty franchise (legacy ROIC ~44%) that has bet ~$8bn of debt on the Merus pipeline, turning net-debt with blended ROIC below WACC. Cheap on legacy cash flows, uncertain on the marginal capital. HOLD; base $255.
Own the royalty engine; the rating hinges on DARZALEX durability and whether the Merus bet earns its cost of capital.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 3,720 | Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income / Note 2.1, 2.2 | Revenue line FY2025 column = 3,720 (2024 restated 3,121; 2023 restated 2,390). Presentation currency USD. |
| Revenue by type (royalties / net product sales / reimbursement / milestone / collaboration) | 3,102 | Note 2.1 Revenue | Royalties 3,102; Net product sales 398; Reimbursement revenue 53; Milestone revenue 97; Collaboration revenue 70; total 3,720. Royalties = 83.4% of revenue. By partner: Janssen/J&J 2,565 (69% of total), Novartis 446. |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 1,065 | Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income | Operating profit FY2025 = 1,065 (2024 restated 972). Used directly as adjusted EBIT (no add-backs). Total costs and operating expenses 2,655 incl. R&D 1,606, SG&A 626, cost of product sales 238, acquisition/integration charges 185. |
| Research and development expenses | 1,606 | Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income / Note 2.3 | R&D expenses 1,606 (2024 restated 1,414). Expensed and KEPT in operating expenses per mttssn (not capitalised / not added back). |
| Acquisition and integration related charges | 185 | Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income / Note 5.5 | 185 of ProfoundBio + Merus deal/integration costs. Company excludes these from 'core' operating profit; mttssn KEEPS them in opex (recurring for a serial acquirer). |
| Net profit before tax / Corporate tax / Net profit | 1,204 | Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income / Note 2.4 | Profit before tax 1,204; corporate tax 241 (effective 20.0%, Note 2.4 reconciliation: Danish statutory 22% = 265, tax effects -24); net profit 963. Net financial items +139 (financial income 408 - financial expenses 269). |
| Operating cash flow / capex (for FCF) | 1,186 | Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows | Net cash provided by operating activities 1,186. Capex = investment in intangibles 18 + investment in tangibles 37 = 55. FCF = 1,186 - 55 = 1,131. (Acquisition of assets 7,215 and marketable-securities flows are excluded from FCF.) |
| Total shareholders' equity | 5,847 | Consolidated Balance Sheets | Total shareholders' equity 5,847 at 31 Dec 2025 (share capital 10, share premium 1,920, other reserves -181, retained earnings 4,098). All to parent; no NCI. |
| Other reserves (accumulated OCI / translation) | -181 | Consolidated Balance Sheets / Statements of Changes in Equity | Other reserves (foreign-currency translation) = -181. equity_ex_oci = 5,847 - (-181) = 6,028. |
| Borrowings (current + non-current) | 5,274 | Note 4.8 Borrowings | Total borrowings = current 273 + non-current 5,001 = 5,274 carrying (nominal 5,500). Term Loan A 1,000 @5.48% float (Dec 2030), Term Loan B 2,000 @6.73% float (Dec 2032), Secured Notes 1,500 @6.25% fixed (Dec 2032), Unsecured Notes 1,000 @7.25% fixed (Dec 2033). Raised December 2025 to fund Merus. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS 16, total) | 152 | Consolidated Balance Sheets / Note 3.3 Leases | Lease liabilities = non-current 134 + current 18 = 152 (right-of-use assets 127). Included in interest-bearing debt for IC. |
| Cash and cash equivalents / Marketable securities | 1,715 | Consolidated Balance Sheets / Note 4.4 | Cash and cash equivalents 1,715 at 31 Dec 2025 (2024 restated 1,380). Marketable securities 0 (2024: 1,574) — fully liquidated to fund Merus. 600 retained as operational cash; 1,115 treated as excess. (Q1 2026: cash 1,521, securities 0.) |
| Acquired IPR&D (intangible-asset class) | 8,474 | Note 3.1 Intangible Assets and Goodwill | Acquired in-process R&D carrying amount 8,474 at 31 Dec 2025 (additions for the year 6,927, mainly Merus petosemtamab; opening 1,532 = ProfoundBio Rina-S). Pre-revenue, NOT amortising, generates zero current NOPAT. Other intangibles: Goodwill 355, Licenses & Patents 120, Technology Platform 529. Basis for the ex-IPR&D operating-ROIC variant. |
| Shares outstanding (issued less treasury) | 61.619 | Note 4.7 Share Capital / Treasury Shares | Issued shares 64,238,408 (after April 2025 cancellation of 2,076,853 treasury shares) less treasury shares held 2,619,405 = 61,619,003 ordinary shares ex-treasury. Used for market cap with verified price. |
| Latest balance sheet (Q1 2026 trajectory) | 5,208 | Condensed balance sheet / subsequent-events note | At 31 Mar 2026: borrowings 5,208, cash 1,521, marketable securities 0, shareholders' equity 5,682. Confirms Genmab remains net-debt post-Merus (deal closed 12 Dec 2025, financed by 5.5bn borrowings + cash). Q1 2026 revenue 896 (+25% YoY), operating profit 180; net financial items swung to -106 on the new debt interest. Used only to evidence trajectory, not to re-anchor FY2025. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.