Bouvet is a premium Norwegian IT consulting franchise: 12.1% FY2025 EBIT margin and capital-light economics (adjusted NOPAT NOK 345M on adjusted IC NOK 172M) that generate genuine economic profit (+NOK 331M above an 8% WACC). The moat is a talent brand — consistently a top-3 Norwegian IT employer — that sustains premium billing rates a commodity staffing peer cannot match.
FY2025 brought the first revenue stagnation in a decade (NOK 3,912M, −0.2%) as power-supply contracts rolled off and Norwegian wage inflation (4.3%) outran billing-rate increases (3.3%); Q1 2026 extended it (revenue −3.5%, EBIT margin 12.3% vs 14.4%). The offsets are real but unconfirmed: inquiry inflow picked up late in Q1, public/defence revenue is growing (+3.8%) on NIS2/cyber demand, and AI engagements are gaining traction. The question is whether the inquiry pickup converts to contracted revenue.
At NOK 45.05 Bouvet trades at EV/EBIT 9.0x FY2025, P/E 12.9x and a 7.0% FCF yield — near the cheapest in its listed history for a franchise whose returns on capital are exceptional. The reverse-DCF on adjusted NOPAT supports a fair value modestly above the price once the cyclical margin trough is normalised. Base NOK 51 (+13%): margin stabilises ~12.5% and revenue flattens. Bull NOK 62 (+38%): the inquiry pickup converts, margin recovers toward 13%+, and the multiple re-rates to its historical ~12x EV/EBIT. Bear NOK 39 (−13%): headwinds persist 2–3 more quarters, margin compresses below 12%, and the cheap multiple gets cheaper — a genuine downside for a cyclical billings model.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly -6.4% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 200% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +192.2 pp); the no-growth value is NOK 59/share (131% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 62 | +1% | +38% | 30% | Inquiry pickup converts; margin recovers toward 13%+; multiple re-rates to ~12x EV/EBIT |
| Base | NOK 51 | -3% | +13% | 45% | Margin stabilises ~12.5%, revenue flattens; modest re-rating off trough |
| Bear | NOK 39 | -10% | -13% | 25% | Headwinds persist 2–3 quarters; margin below 12%; cheap multiple gets cheaper |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 51 | — | +14% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 79 | 90 | 98 | 111 | 121 | 148 |
| 7.25% | 67 | 77 | 83 | 94 | 102 | 124 |
| 8.00% (base) | 59 | 67 | 72 | 81 | 88 | 107 |
| 8.75% | 52 | 59 | 64 | 72 | 78 | 94 |
| 9.50% | 47 | 53 | 57 | 64 | 69 | 84 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 45.05. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Adjusted ROIC ~45% gross / EP +NOK 331M; NOK 26M capex on NOK 3.9bn revenue — returns on capital few consultancies match.
Top-3 Norwegian IT employer sustains premium billing rates and senior-hire selectivity.
Public-sector 45% of revenue, growing +3.8% on NIS2/cybersecurity and Norwegian defence digitalisation — a counter-cyclical anchor.
Zero financial debt, NOK 330–672M cash; ~6.7% dividend yield even after the payout reset.
Bouvet is a premium, capital-light Norwegian IT franchise at a trough valuation — the quality is intact and the balance sheet is pristine, but revenue and margin are mid-derating and the inquiry pickup is unconfirmed. HOLD, medium conviction; base NOK 51. Upgrade to BUY on Q2 2026 revenue stabilisation and margin back above 12.5%.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
NOPAT adjustments: No material NOPAT normalizations. Bouvet is a pure-play IT consulting firm with no derivatives, no restructuring, no material asset dispositions, and no impairments. Norwegian defined-contribution pension (OTP) only — no DBO/pension net interest to reclassify. Goodwill 54.0M is small and intact (no impairment testing trigger). IFRS 16 ROU depreciation (~70-80M estimated within the 99.2M D&A) is kept as a REAL operating cost — office leases are essential to the consulting model (client proximity, team collaboration). R&D: Sesam software (proprietary time-tracking/billing platform) carries ~108 TNOK capitalised — negligible.
Post-tax add-backs: No impairments in FY2025 or Q1 2026. Goodwill 54.0M (Q1 2026 balance sheet) unchanged. PPA amortisation ~8.8M/year kept in D&A (immaterial).
Company add-backs we reject: SBC 22.2M LTM NOK: FY2025 21.8M − Q1 2025 4.8M + Q1 2026 5.2M (sourced from Q1 2026 interim report cash-flow add-back). Equity-settled employee share programme. Kept in opex per mttssn policy — SBC is a real economic cost of retaining talent. PPA: ~8.8M/year from Sesam software and minor acquired intangibles — treated as normal amortisation, not added back.
Invested capital: IC = equity 424.0M + lease liabilities 341.9M = gross IC 765.9M. Operational cash floor = min(cash 672.3, 2% × FY2025 revenue 3,912.3) = min(672.3, 78.2) = 78.2M (rounded). Excess cash = 672.3 − 78.2 = 594.1M subtracted from IC → adjusted IC = 765.9 − 594.1 = 171.8M. IC CONTEXT: The extremely low adjusted IC (172M vs NOPAT 344.6M) correctly reflects Bouvet's consulting model — there is virtually no physical or financial capital deployed to generate earnings. The operating IC is essentially: net working capital (AR minus AP) + leased office infrastructure. Goodwill 54M (small) from minor acquisitions included in equity, not removed. ALTERNATIVE IC VIEWS: (a) Gross IC 765.9M → ROIC 45.0%; (b) Adjusted IC 172M → ROIC 200%; (c) Q1 2026 snapshot (equity 476.7, leases 339M, cash 551.2, op-cash 78M) → IC = 476.7+339-473.2 = 342.5M → ROIC 100.6%. All three confirm extreme capital-lightness. We report adjusted IC as primary (consistent with methodology) but note gross-IC ROIC for investor context.
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How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.