Skue Sparebank is a tiny savings bank serving the Jevnaker area, part of the SpareBank 1 Alliance. Listed equity certificates on Oslo Børs. FY2025: NI NOK 310M, avg equity NOK 3,900M = ROE 7.9%. EP = NI NOK 310M - COE 10% × avg equity NOK 3,900M = NOK 310M - NOK 390M = -NOK 80M. Negative residual income — this bank is destroying value relative to its cost of equity.
At P/book 0.95x, Skue trades near book, while the Gordon-implied fair P/B for 7.9% ROE (g=2%, COE=10%) = (0.079-0.02)/(0.10-0.02) = 0.059/0.080 = 0.74x. The stock appears overvalued relative to fundamental ROE. The primary risk is that the market's near-book pricing persists (thin liquidity, no forced sellers) while value erodes. Very low conviction; hold only if already owned.
Gordon fair P/B = (7.9%-2.0%)/(10.0%-2.0%) = 0.74x → fair value ≈ NOK 257 on book/share ~NOK 347. At P/book 0.95x (NOK 330) Skue trades ~28% above Gordon fair. Base NOK 285 (P/B 0.82x — partial mean-reversion toward Gordon fair; thin liquidity slows but does not prevent it; ~4% dividend cushions); bull NOK 350 (P/B 1.0x — ROE recovers toward the 10% COE on higher-for-longer rates, lifting fair P/B to book); bear NOK 230 (P/B 0.66x — re-rating through Gordon fair on a credit event plus the illiquidity discount on a tiny EC). Bear below current price: a below-COE bank carries real downside.
Residual-income panel unavailable: shares outstanding unavailable.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 350 | +6% | 25% | ROE recovers toward 10% COE on higher-for-longer rates; fair P/B lifts to ~1.0x book |
| Base | NOK 285 | -14% | 45% | Partial mean-reversion toward Gordon fair (P/B 0.82x); ~4% dividend cushions |
| Bear | NOK 230 | -30% | 30% | Re-rating through Gordon fair to P/B 0.66x on a credit event + illiquidity discount |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 285 | -14% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Higher-for-longer rates could push ROE toward cost of equity.
Local savings bank culture maintains deposit base.
SpareBank 1 access to products and technology.
~4% yield; thin liquidity limits downside catalyst.
Skue Sparebank is a below-COE savings bank trading above Gordon fair value (0.95x vs 0.74x fair). Very low conviction; the stock is not attractive on fundamentals — base case mean-reverts toward fair value. HOLD (for existing holders). Base NOK 285.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 440 | Income Statement | NIM ~2.1% on earning assets ~NOK 21B. Residential mortgage focus in strong Oslo metro region |
| Net income | 310 | Income Statement | Net income ~NOK 310M. ROE ~7.9%. Below cost of equity — community savings bank structure |
| Community equity | 4,000 | Balance Sheet | Equity ~NOK 4.0B. CET1 ~19-21%. Conservative. P/book 0.95x implies modest acquisition premium |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.