Marimekko is exceptional in one specific way: it possesses a brand moat that is genuinely uncompetable. The 3,500-print archive (Unikko poppy, Tasaraita stripe, Kivet stone) is registered intellectual property, legally protected from imitation. Unlike most brands, Marimekko's value is not just awareness — it is proprietary design law. The print archive generates licensing income (pure royalty) and legitimises premium pricing in 176 stores across 4 continents.
The financial profile reflects this moat: Adj ROIC 35.2%, EP +EUR 20.5M, net cash, 17% LTM comparable EBIT margins, ROCE 30%. The IC appears small (EUR 75.7M) because the brand and print archive are off-balance-sheet — but this is the correct accounting treatment for internally developed intangibles. The 2026 guidance (revenue growth + 16-19% comparable margin) is consistent with the structural quality.
The key near-term risk is Finland: domestic retail was -4% comparable in Q1 2026 (Finnish consumer confidence weak). Finland is 54% of revenues. This is a genuine macro headwind, not a structural issue. Asia-Pacific retail underlying +13% in Q1 2026 and the Paris flagship (opened October 2025) are the globalisation catalysts.
EV EUR 420.9M / LTM comparable EBIT EUR 33.2M = 12.7x. P/E (LTM) = 16.6x. FCF yield ~8%. Dividend EUR 0.42/share = 4.0% yield.
Base EUR 12 (14x comparable EBIT EUR 33.5M estimated; EV ~EUR 469M + net cash EUR 1.7M / 40.5M shares = EUR 11.6; rounding to EUR 12). Bull EUR 15 (17x; licensing recovery + Asia-Pacific acceleration + Finland recovery). Bear EUR 7 (10x; Finland structural, licensing deteriorates further).
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 0.1% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 35% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +27.1 pp); the no-growth value is €10/share (100% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €15 | +10% | +44% | 30% | Licensing recovery + Asia-Pacific acceleration + Finland recovers; 17x comparable EBIT |
| Base | €12 | +4% | +15% | 45% | 14x comparable EBIT on guidance midpoint; brand globalisation steady |
| Bear | €7 | -11% | -33% | 25% | Finland structural + licensing further decline; 10x; multiple compression |
| Prob-weighted | €12 | — | +12% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 25 |
| 7.25% | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 21 |
| 8.00% (base) | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 18 |
| 8.75% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 9.50% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €10.44. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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Underlying retail +13% Q1 2026; Paris flagship brand amplifier; new Tokyo/Bangkok stores; licensing recovery in Asia-Pacific.
FY2025 international licensing -16% (timing/partner cycle). Recovery is high-margin, no-capex upside.
2026 anniversary creates a natural marketing amplifier — limited editions, collaborations, global media coverage.
Consumer confidence improvement would restore -4% domestic drag to +2-4% growth; significant earnings sensitivity.
Marimekko owns a genuinely uncompetable brand moat (the print archive). 35% ROIC, net cash, 17% margins, and 4% dividend yield at 12.7x EV/EBIT — fair rather than cheap. The entry point should be Finnish consumer weakness or licensing troughs (which create the same earnings temporarily). HOLD/MED; base EUR 12; accumulate below EUR 10.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTM Net sales | 191 | Key figures table p.3 | FY 189.6 - Q1'25 39.6 + Q1'26 41.4 = 191.4 MEUR. Q1 2026 +5% YoY driven by Scandinavia/Finland wholesale (+8%) and international retail growth (+20%). |
| LTM comparable operating profit | 33.2 | Key figures table p.3 | FY 32.3 - Q1'25 4.4 + Q1'26 5.3 = 33.2 MEUR. LTM margin 17.3%. Q1 2026 comparable margin 12.7% (seasonal low — Q4 is the peak quarter). |
| ROCE rolling | 30 | Key figures table p.3 | ROCE 30.0% Q1 2026, stable from FY2025. Confirms the asset-light model generates durable high returns. |
| Gearing Q1 2026 | -2.4 | Key figures table p.3 | Gearing -2.4% = net cash / equity. Net debt/EBITDA LTM = -0.04x. Company is debt-free. |
| Net sales Asia-Pacific FY2025 | 40 | Net sales by market area table | Asia-Pacific EUR 40.0M (39.2M in 2024, +2%). Q1 2026 stable EUR 10.0M vs 9.9M. APAC is highest-growth region for retail; licensing was a drag in FY2025. |
| Number of stores | 176 | Key figures table p.3 | 176 stores at 31 Mar 2026 (174 at FY2025). New openings: Japan, pop-ups Asia. |
| FY2026 guidance margin range | None | Financial guidance for 2026 | Comparable operating profit margin 16-19% for FY2026. Revenue to grow from EUR 189.6M. Wide range reflects consumer confidence and geopolitical uncertainty. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.