This is the Volvo Group A-share (voting share) — the same company as VOLV-B, with identical operating fundamentals (only the share class + listed price differ; the A typically trades at a small discount to the B). On Industrial Operations FY2025 was a cyclical down-year (industrial revenue ~SEK 458bn) yet industrial ROIC was ~33% with economic profit +SEK ~27bn and a fortress net-cash balance sheet (industrial net cash ~SEK 63bn); the service/aftermarket base (~26% of group) cushions the cycle.
Valuation is fair (~19x trailing P/E, ~4% dividend yield incl. an extra) in a trough-ish year; the same caveats as the B-share apply (statutory-tax NOPAT + capitalized R&D modestly flatter the headline). A high-quality, fortress-balance-sheet global truck maker; own it through the cycle for the quality + capital returns. Refer to the VOLV-B note for the full thesis.
Identical to VOLV-B: at ~19x trailing P/E in a cyclical down-year with industrial ROIC ~33% and net cash, Volvo is fairly valued; the dividend is the near-term return.
Base SEK 335 (fair for the quality + balance sheet, on the A-share price); bull SEK 395 on a truck-cycle upturn + margin expansion; bear SEK 245 on a deeper freight/industrial downturn.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 4.7% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 33% on capital against a 9% cost of capital (spread +23.8 pp); the no-growth value is SEK 276/share (87% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 395 | +12% | +24% | 30% | Truck-cycle upturn + margin expansion |
| Base | SEK 335 | +6% | +5% | 45% | Fair for quality + fortress balance sheet (A-share) |
| Bear | SEK 245 | -4% | -23% | 25% | Deeper freight/industrial downturn |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 330 | — | +3% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | 348 | 385 | 413 | 457 | 490 | 580 |
| 8.25% | 307 | 339 | 362 | 399 | 426 | 500 |
| 9.00% (base) | 276 | 303 | 323 | 354 | 377 | 440 |
| 9.75% | 252 | 275 | 292 | 319 | 338 | 392 |
| 10.50% | 232 | 252 | 266 | 290 | 307 | 353 |
Green = fair value above the current price of SEK 319.40. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
A recovery in heavy-truck demand lifts volumes + margins off a trough.
~26% of group; stabilizes margin through the cycle.
Industrial net cash ~SEK 63bn funds dividends + extras.
BEV trucks + connected services.
Volvo A is the same fortress-balance-sheet global truck maker as VOLV-B (industrial ROIC ~33%, EP +SEK ~27bn), fairly valued at ~19x P/E / ~4% yield. HOLD (constructive); base SEK 335.
Identical thesis to the B-share; the A trades a touch cheaper. Add into cyclical weakness.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Operations net sales (FY2025) | 457,509 | Consolidated income statement - full year, Industrial Operations column | Industrial Operations net sales FY2025 = 457,509 (FY2024 504,975). Group net sales 479,183; Financial Services 26,469; eliminations -4,795. Used as the operating revenue base. |
| Industrial Operations operating income (reported EBIT, FY2025) | 44,379 | Consolidated income statement - full year, Industrial Operations column | Industrial Operations reported operating income FY2025 = 44,379 (FY2024 62,198), operating margin 9.7%. Group reported operating income 48,506; Financial Services 3,869. |
| Industrial Operations adjusted operating income (FY2025) | 47,043 | Adjusted operating income table (Note 6 reference) | Industrial Operations adjusted operating income FY2025 = 47,043 (FY2024 61,305), adjusted margin 10.3%. Group adjusted operating income 51,218; adjustments -2,712 bridge to group reported 48,506. Industrial adjustment = 47,043 - 44,379 = 2,664 (accepted as one-off). |
| Group income before tax / income taxes / net income (FY2025) | 34,707 | Consolidated income statement - full year, Volvo Group column | Group income after financial items 47,391; income taxes -12,685 (effective 26.8%); income for the period 34,707; attributable to owners of AB Volvo 34,456; NCI 251. Industrial-segment taxes -11,669 on Industrial pre-tax 43,522 (26.8%). |
| Industrial Operations total assets (Dec 31 2025) | 401,461 | Consolidated balance sheet - assets, Industrial Operations column | Industrial Operations total assets 401,461 (FY2024 451,684). Top of the capital-employed reconciliation (total assets - non-IB liabilities 228,777 = capital employed 172,684). |
| Industrial Operations total equity / equity to owners (Dec 31 2025) | 151,013 | Consolidated balance sheet - equity and liabilities, Industrial Operations column | Industrial total equity 151,013 (equity attributable to owners 150,931 + NCI 83). Group total equity 178,477; equity to owners 178,395 (book value 87.7 SEK/share). Equity ratio Industrial 37.6%. |
| Industrial PP&E / inventories / trade payables (Dec 31 2025) | 83,758 | Consolidated balance sheet, Industrial Operations columns | Industrial PP&E 83,758; assets under operating leases 36,072; inventories 65,104; accounts receivable 29,333; trade payables 67,265; goodwill 23,659; other intangibles 22,769 (incl. capitalised R&D). The operating-capital building blocks. |
| Industrial Operations cash and marketable securities (Dec 31 2025) | 68,017 | Consolidated balance sheet - assets, Industrial Operations column | Industrial cash and cash equivalents 67,875 + marketable securities 142 = 68,017 liquidity. Operating buffer ~2% of sales (9,150) retained; excess 58,867 stripped from IC. |
| Industrial interest-bearing financial liabilities (excl. pension/lease, Dec 31 2025) | 13,800 | Net financial position excl. post-employment benefits and lease liabilities, Industrial Operations | Industrial total interest-bearing financial liabilities excl. pension/lease = 13.8bn; total interest-bearing financial assets = 76.9bn; net financial position = +63.0bn NET CASH. Drives net_debt = -63,000. |
| Industrial net financial position excl. pension/lease (net cash, Dec 31 2025) | -63,000 | Net financial position table, Industrial Operations | Industrial net financial position excl. pension and lease = +SEK 63.0bn net cash (FY2024 85.9bn). Including pension (-6.8bn) and lease (-7.9bn) it is +48.4bn. Used directly as net_debt (negative = net cash). |
| Industrial Operations D&A and EBITDA (FY2025) | 18,573 | EBITDA and EBITDA margin, Industrial Operations | Industrial D&A FY2025 = 18,573 (amortisation product/software dev 3,591 + other intangibles 392 + depreciation tangible 14,589); EBITDA 62,951 (margin 13.8%). Net R&D capitalisation +4,026 (gross 7,553 less amortisation 3,527). |
| Industrial Operations ROCE and operating cash flow (FY2025) | 0.253 | Key ratios / Return on capital employed, Industrial Operations (12m rolling) | Company-reported Industrial ROCE 25.3% (12m rolling; 25.7% on year-end capital employed); return on operating capital 44.5%. Industrial operating cash flow FY2025 = 21,837 (FY2024 45,295). Used to reconcile capital employed and as the FCF proxy. |
| Shares outstanding (A + B, total) | 2,033 | Quarterly figures - shares; share-structure announcement (31 Mar 2026) | Total 2,033,452,084 shares (441,543,462 Series A + 1,591,908,622 Series B), zero own/treasury shares. Weighted-average 2,033m used for EPS 16.94. Total group shares (A+B) used for market cap per the prompt — the SAME count as the VOLV-B file. |
| Live share price VOLV-A.ST | 319 | VOLV-A.ST Nasdaq Stockholm 2026-06-09 | VOLV-A price 319.40 SEK on 2026-06-09 (previous close 323.20; day range 319.40-325.80; 52-week range 245.20-353.60; market cap ~649-651bn). Modestly below the VOLV-B close (323.60 on 2026-06-08), an A/B share-class spread, not a fundamentals difference. Applied to 2,033.452084m shares for market cap 649,485. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.