Okeanis owns and operates a modern, eco (fuel-efficient) fleet of VLCC crude + product tankers, managed by the Alafouzos family's Kyklades Maritime. It reports in USD and pays out most of its cash. FY2025 was a soft-to-mid-cycle year (fleetwide daily TCE ~$52,800) — revenue ~$391m, ROIC ~14.9% and economic profit +$42.5m against an 11% WACC, helped by a ~0% tax rate (Marshall Islands / Section 883).
The defining feature is violent cyclicality: Q1 2026 alone earned $88m (TCE ~$93,600/day) versus $13m a year earlier — so trailing multiples and the ~10% dividend yield are functions of where you are in the spot cycle, not a stable coupon. It is a capital-intensive vessel owner (net debt ~$493m, gearing ~52%) with a related-party manager and recent equity raises (dilution). Own it as a cyclical trade, not a compounder; do not extrapolate the 2026 rate spike.
Trailing EV/EBITDA ~11.7x looks unremarkable but collapses to ~5-6x on annualised 2026 spot rates — the valuation is entirely a spot-cycle call; NAV (fleet value − net debt) is the better anchor.
Base USD 50 (~current; mid-cycle); bull USD 70 if a strong tanker up-cycle (sanctions/ton-mile/low orderbook) persists; bear USD 32 on a rate downturn exposing the leverage + dilution.
At today’s enterprise value the constant-ROIC reverse-DCF maxes out: even at its sustainable-growth ceiling (~14.1%, limited by ROIC 15% ≈ WACC 11%) it cannot reach the current EV. No-growth value is NOK 262/share (54% of price); the market prices in growth and/or a higher ROIC than booked — richly valued on this lens. Read the sensitivity grid.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | NOK 667 | ≥14% | +38% | 30% | Strong tanker up-cycle (sanctions/ton-mile/low orderbook) persists |
| Base | NOK 476 | ≥14% | -1% | 40% | Mid-cycle; trade on NAV |
| Bear | NOK 305 | +7% | -37% | 30% | Rate downturn exposes leverage + dilution |
| Prob-weighted | NOK 482 | — | +0% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.50% | 339 | 368 | 388 | 419 | 440 | 495 |
| 10.25% | 297 | 320 | 336 | 360 | 376 | 417 |
| 11.00% (base) | 262 | 281 | 293 | 311 | 323 | 353 |
| 11.75% | 233 | 248 | 257 | 271 | 280 | 300 |
| 12.50% | 209 | 220 | 227 | 237 | 243 | 256 |
Green = fair value above the current price of NOK 482.00. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Crude/product-tanker spot rates are the overwhelming earnings driver.
Fuel-efficient vessels earn rate premiums + lower opex.
Low tanker orderbook + sanctioned-fleet/ton-mile dynamics support rates.
Pays out most cash — a ~10% (variable) yield when rates are firm.
Okeanis is a young-fleet tanker owner — value-creative at mid-cycle (ROIC ~14.9%) with a ~10% variable yield, but a highly cyclical, leveraged, spot-rate-driven trade, not a compounder. HOLD, low conviction; base USD 50.
Trade the cycle on NAV; the swing factor is tanker spot rates — don't extrapolate the 2026 spike.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (IFRS, voyage charter) | 392 | Revenue | Revenue 391,548,819 for FY2025 (FY2024 393,229,831; FY2023 413,096,606). Audited by Deloitte. -0.4% YoY. |
| TCE revenue (time charter equivalent) | 265 | Non-GAAP: TCE revenue | Time charter equivalent revenue 265,415,590 = revenue 391,548,819 - voyage expenses 121,870,584 - commissions 4,262,645. Operating days 5,025; Daily TCE rate $52,823 (FY2024 $52,898; FY2023 $59,281). |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 163 | Operating profit | Operating profit 162,530,692 (FY2024 162,944,973; FY2023 201,122,922). Total operating expenses 229,018,127 incl voyage 121.871, vessel opex 45.240, management fees 4.599, D&A 41.441, G&A 11.605, commissions 4.263. Used directly as adjusted EBIT. |
| Depreciation and amortization | 41.441 | Depreciation and amortization | D&A 41,440,551 (FY2024 41,134,237). Vessel depreciation (25-yr life) + drydock amortization. EBITDA = EBIT 162.531 + D&A 41.441 = 203.972. |
| Vessel operating expenses | 45.24 | Vessel operating expenses | Vessel operating expenses 45,240,447 (FY2024 42,434,258). Plus related-party management fees 4,599,000. Daily opex incl mgmt fees $9,753/day. |
| Interest and finance costs | 44.241 | Interest expense and other finance costs | Interest expense and other finance costs 44,240,513 (FY2024 57,052,680) - fell on lower average debt and loan margins. Interest income 2,191,740. Both sit below operating profit. |
| Profit for the year (net income) | 123 | Profit for the year | Profit for the year 122,951,543 (FY2024 108,863,270; +12.9%). Equals profit before tax - NO income-tax line (Section 883 exemption). EPS $3.77 on weighted-avg 32,575,740 shares. |
| Total borrowings (interest-bearing debt) | 610 | Total borrowings | Total borrowings 609,771,403 gross (FY2024 651,628,487): long-term net of current 470,544,744 + current portion 134,494,413, before unamortized financing fees 4,732,246 (carrying 605,039,157) + other lease 60,740. Includes sale-and-leaseback facilities. Gearing 52%. |
| Total shareholders' equity | 573 | Total shareholders' equity | Total shareholders' equity 573,091,238 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2024 410,426,916; uplift from retained profit + equity issuance). No NCI. Book value $16.17/share on 35.43m YE shares. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 117 | Cash and cash equivalents | Cash and cash equivalents 116,636,741 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2024 49,343,664). Plus ~5.9m restricted cash => $122.5m total cash incl. restricted (per press release). $25m treated as operational, $91.6m as excess. |
| Total assets | 1,201 | TOTAL ASSETS | Total assets 1,200,644,740 (FY2024 1,082,099,609). Dominated by vessels net 922,117,179 + advances for acquisition of vessels 38,894,251 (2 Suezmax newbuildings). |
| Shares outstanding (current) | 39.045 | Common shares outstanding | 39,044,655 common shares outstanding as of 18 March 2026 (excl 695,892 treasury), post the Nov-2025 (~$115m) and Jan-2026 offerings. At 31 Dec 2025: 35,433,544 outstanding. Used current count for market cap. |
| Dividend declared (FY2025 / Q1 2026) | 2.12 | Dividends declared | FY2025 dividends declared $2.12/share = $70,681,085. Q4 2025 component $1.55/share. Q1 2026 separately declared $2.00/share. Trailing run-rate ~$5/share => ~10.3% yield at $48.75. Variable, cycle-linked distribution. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.