Konecranes makes industrial and port cranes, but the quality is in Service: a vast installed crane base drives a sticky aftermarket annuity at ~22% margin — ~58% of group comparable profit on light capital. FY2025 revenue was flat (-1% reported / +0.7% comparable — pure FX), but ROIC was ~21%, economic profit +EUR 255m (a wide ~12pp spread over a 9% WACC), the balance sheet is net cash and FCF yield ~8%. The order book is at a record EUR 3.2bn.
Valuation is fair rather than cheap: ~16x P/E, EV/IC ~3.1x, ~2.7% dividend yield, with flat-to-modestly-up FY2026 guidance amid sub-50 Eurozone PMI. The cap on enthusiasm is cyclical equipment/port exposure; the Service annuity is the durable core. (Note the 2026 3-for-1 split — EUR 27.50 is post-split.)
At ~16x P/E / EV/IC ~3.1x with a record order book and net cash, Konecranes is fairly valued for a quality industrial; the Service annuity supports the premium.
Base EUR 29 (fair for quality + backlog); bull EUR 35 on an industrial up-cycle + service margin expansion; bear EUR 21 on an equipment/port downturn.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 3.7% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 21% on capital against a 9% cost of capital (spread +12.2 pp); the no-growth value is €25/share (90% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €35 | +12% | +27% | 30% | Industrial up-cycle + service margin expansion |
| Base | €29 | +6% | +5% | 45% | Fair for quality + backlog |
| Bear | €21 | -6% | -24% | 25% | Equipment/port downturn |
| Prob-weighted | €29 | — | +5% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | 32 | 35 | 37 | 41 | 44 | 51 |
| 8.25% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 44 |
| 9.00% (base) | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 38 |
| 9.75% | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 33 |
| 10.50% | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 29 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €27.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
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~22%-margin aftermarket on a vast installed base — ~58% of profit, durable.
EUR 3.2bn backlog underpins revenue visibility.
Net cash, ~8% FCF yield funds dividends + reinvestment.
Differentiated automation IP in a structurally growing segment.
Konecranes is a quality compounder — a sticky high-margin Service annuity, ROIC ~21%, EP +EUR 255m, net cash and a record backlog — fairly valued at ~16x P/E. HOLD (constructive); base EUR 29.
Own the Service-led quality; add on cyclical equipment-driven weakness.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Source reports archived locally.
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (net sales) | 4,188 | Consolidated statement of income / Note 7 Segment information | Sales line, 1-12/2025 column = 4,187.8 (prior year 4,227.0; -0.9% reported, +0.7% comparable currencies). The decline is FX translation, not volume. |
| Operating profit (EBIT, IFRS) | 542 | Consolidated statement of income | Operating profit line = 542.4 (prior 511.4; +6.1%), 13.0% of sales. This is the reported IFRS EBIT, used as the base before the verified restructuring/IAC add-back. |
| Items affecting comparability (restructuring + other IAC) | 11 | Reconciliation of Comparable EBITDA, EBITA and Operating profit | Restructuring costs 9.9 + other IAC 1.1 = 11.0 (p.2: 'items affecting comparability totaled EUR 11.0 million, mainly comprising of restructuring costs'). Added back to reported EBIT 542.4 to reach comparable EBIT 553.4 (= mttssn adjusted EBIT). |
| Comparable EBITA (company APM) | 588 | Reconciliation of Comparable EBITDA, EBITA and Operating profit / p.2 highlights | Company headline 'comparable EBITA' 588.1 (14.0% margin, prior 551.6/13.1%). Bridges to comparable EBIT 553.4 via PPA amortization & goodwill impairment of 34.7, which mttssn declines to add back. |
| Depreciation, amortization and impairments | 136 | Consolidated statement of income / Note 8 | D&A and impairments -136.4 (prior -120.5), sitting inside reported EBIT. Includes the 34.7 of PPA amortization & goodwill impairment that differentiates EBITA from EBIT. |
| Profit before taxes / Taxes / effective rate | -117 | Consolidated statement of income / Note 10 Income taxes | Taxes -116.8 on profit before taxes 516.5 = effective 22.6%. Note 10: local income taxes 118.7, prior-year taxes -5.5, deferred +3.5. Finnish statutory 20% used for NOPAT. |
| Net income (profit for the period) | 400 | Consolidated statement of income | Profit for the period 399.8 (prior 368.4; +8.5%), entirely attributable to shareholders of the parent (non-controlling interest 0.0). EPS diluted 5.03 on the pre-split share base. |
| Total equity | 2,087 | Consolidated balance sheet (equity and liabilities) | Total equity 2,087.4 at 31.12.2025 (share capital 30.1, share premium 39.3, paid-in capital 752.7, fair value reserves 7.5, translation difference -40.7, other reserve 55.0, retained earnings 843.6, net profit 399.8). All to parent; NCI 0.0. |
| AOCI (translation difference + fair value reserves) | -33.2 | Consolidated balance sheet / Note 14 Fair value reserves | Translation difference -40.7 + fair value reserves +7.5 = -33.2. Stripped from equity to give equity_ex_oci 2,120.6 (removing the negative translation reserve raises the IC equity base). |
| Interest-bearing liabilities (non-current + current) | 470 | Consolidated balance sheet / Note 13 | Non-current interest-bearing liabilities 303.7 + current 166.2 = 469.9 (prior 539.3 + 356.3 = 895.6; debt was materially reduced in 2025). Includes IFRS 16 lease liabilities (not separately split in the release). |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 632 | Interest-bearing net debt reconciliation / p.7 Cash flow and financing | Cash and cash equivalents 631.9 at 31.12.2025 (prior 710.0). 125.6 (~3% of sales) retained as operational cash; 506.3 treated as excess and stripped from IC. EUR 350m backup facility fully undrawn. |
| Interest-bearing net debt | -164 | Interest-bearing net debt reconciliation | IB liabilities 469.9 - loans receivable 1.4 - cash 631.9 = -163.5 (NET CASH; prior +183.5). Gearing -7.8%, equity-to-assets 53.8%. Matches the net_debt used in the IC and EV bridges. |
| Segment comparable EBITA (Service / Industrial Equipment / Port Solutions) | 342 | Business Areas (pp.8-10) | Industrial Service comparable EBITA 341.5 (21.8% margin) on sales 1,562.8; Industrial Equipment 120.0 (9.4%) on external sales 1,193.2; Port Solutions 159.6 (10.5%) on sales 1,523.4. Service ~58% of group comparable EBITA — the high-margin quality engine. |
| Shares outstanding (post 3:1 split) / share split | 238 | Shares and trading / share-split registration ~31 Mar 2026 | Post-split total shares 237,665,718 (= pre-split 79,221,906 x 3); treasury 7,637 x 3 = 22,911; outstanding ex-treasury = 237,642,807 = 237.642807m. Used with the post-split price EUR 27.50 for market cap. Pre-split year-end closing price was EUR 93.90. |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.