Sagax is a high-quality owner of industrial, warehouse and light-logistics property across Sweden, Finland and internationally, built on long leases, high occupancy (95%) and a remarkable compounding record (FFO/share CAGR ~18.6% since 2013). On the EPRA framework its FFO proxy (income from property management) is SEK 4.4bn (~SEK 12.31 per A+B share), so it trades at ~13x P/FFO — and, characteristically for Sagax, at a ~19% PREMIUM to NAV (down from much larger historical premiums). It also carries a listed-holdings overlay (stakes in Hemso, NP3, Nyfosa, Soderport and others, ~SEK 15bn).
The balance sheet is conservative for property (LTV ~43%, ICR ~3.9x, Baa2). But two things temper the story: management explicitly CUT its 2026-2030 targets (ROE ≥12% and FFO/share +5-10%, down from the old +15% trajectory), and growth is now thin — like-for-like rental +1.8%, average funding cost rising to 2.7% (EUR-linked). After a year-long de-rate the valuation is more reasonable, but a +19% NAV premium and ~13x FFO on a now-slower compounder leaves little margin of safety. (Note the A/B/D share structure — the D-share is a quasi-preference; market cap is built on total economic shares.)
At ~13x P/FFO and a +19% premium to NAV, Sagax is priced as the quality compounder it is — but with the cut growth targets the premium is harder to justify than historically.
Base SEK 160 (a premium asset at a fair-to-slightly-rich ~13x FFO / +19% NAV); bull SEK 195 if logistics demand + rate easing reaccelerate FFO/share toward the high-single-digits; bear SEK 130 if the NAV premium compresses toward parity on slower growth + higher funding costs.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 195 | +21% | 30% | Logistics demand + rate easing reaccelerate FFO/share |
| Base | SEK 160 | -1% | 45% | Premium asset at fair-to-rich ~13x FFO / +19% NAV |
| Bear | SEK 130 | -19% | 25% | NAV premium compresses on slower growth + funding cost |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 163 | +1% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Long WALT + 95% occupancy + light-industrial demand underpin stable cash flow.
~18.6% FFO/share CAGR since 2013 — a proven capital allocator.
LTV ~43%, ICR ~3.9x, Baa2 — defensive for property.
Stakes in Hemso/NP3/Nyfosa/Soderport add value + optionality.
Sagax is a best-in-class industrial-property compounder (95% occupancy, long leases, ~18.6% FFO/share CAGR, conservative leverage), but at ~13x FFO and a +19% NAV premium with freshly-cut growth targets it is a premium asset, not a cheap one. HOLD; base SEK 160.
Own the quality; add only on a compression of the NAV premium toward parity, where the compounding is no longer fully paid for.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental revenue FY2025 SEK 5,378 M | 5,378 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.74 | Top-line rental income; +8% YoY, 79% EUR-denominated. |
| Net operating income FY2025 SEK 4,442 M | 4,442 | Statement of comprehensive income 📄 p.74 | Rental revenue less property operating/maintenance/tax expenses; surplus ratio 83%. |
| Profit from property management attributable to parent (FFO/EPRA Earnings) FY2025 SEK 4,442 M | 4,442 | Statement of comprehensive income — 'of which profit from property management attributable to Parent Company's shareholders' 📄 p.74 | This is the FFO proxy under EPRA framework: recurring earnings excluding property & financial value changes and tax; SEK 12.38 per A+B share FY2025. |
| Profit from property management attributable to parent, R12M to 31 Mar 2026 SEK 4,418 M | 4,418 | Consolidated statement of comprehensive income — Rolling 12 months column 📄 p.23 | LTM EPRA Earnings used as FFO proxy; SEK 12.31 per A+B share R12M. |
| Net asset value per Class A and B share SEK 135.30 (31 Mar 2026) | 135 | Equity per Class A and B share / NAV 📄 p.18 | EPRA NRV-equivalent: recognised equity to parent less Class-D equity, with add-back of derivative reserves and deferred tax on property/derivatives. P/NAV 129% at 31 Mar. |
| NAV per A+B share YE2025 SEK 130.32 | 130 | Data per Class A and B share 📄 p.62 | Year-end NAV; share price 197.60 = 152% of NAV (premium). |
| Interest-bearing liabilities YE2025 SEK 38,646 M | 38,646 | Interest-bearing liabilities 📄 p.40 | Gross debt; 92% EUR; average interest rate 2.5% at year end. |
| Net debt YE2025 SEK 27,700 M | 27,700 | Net debt table 📄 p.42 | Sagax definition: gross IB less interest-bearing assets, listed instruments and market value of listed JV/associate shares (SEK 10,493 M). 5.8x EBITDA. |
| Total equity 31 Mar 2026 SEK 44,377 M | 44,377 | Consolidated statement of changes in equity 📄 p.26 | Latest consolidated equity incl. NCI (parent-attributable SEK 44,201 M) — IC equity component. |
| Debt ratio (LTV) 43% Q1 2026 | 43 | Financial key figures 📄 p.22 | Interest-bearing liabilities / total assets; target max 50%. YE2025 44%. |
| Economic occupancy rate 95% (31 Mar 2026) | 95 | Property-related key figures 📄 p.22 | Contractual annual rent / rental value; YE2025 96%. High and stable; slight dip from Finland/Sweden vacancies flagged for 2026. |
| Like-for-like rental growth +1.8% ex-FX FY2025 | 1.8 | Comments — Revenue 📄 p.75 | Comparable-portfolio rental growth excluding currency; modest due to low indexation (weighted inflation 0.9%) on already-high occupancy. |
| Average interest rate 2.7% Q1 2026 | 2.7 | Financial key figures 📄 p.22 | Volume-weighted interest on IB liabilities incl. derivatives; YE2025 2.5%, rising on bond refinancing. 69% fixed-rate. |
| Dividend per A+B share SEK 3.70 (proposed for 2025) | 3.7 | Data per Class A and B share 📄 p.62 | Cash dividend to A+B holders; D-shares capped at 2.00. ~2.3% yield on B-price. |
| Class B share price 31 Mar 2026 SEK 174.00; P/FFO 14.1x; P/NAV 129% | 174 | Key performance indicators per Class B share 📄 p.18 | Sagax's own valuation multiples confirm persistent premium to NAV and ~14x FFO; price has since drifted to 161.00 (Jun 8). |
| Property portfolio market value SEK 68,283 M / occupancy / 1,043 properties | 68,283 | Comments on financial position — Assets 📄 p.77 | Fair-value (IAS 40) property portfolio across Sweden/Finland/France/Benelux/Spain/Germany/Denmark; warehouse & light-industrial focus. |