ROCKWOOL is the global stone-wool (mineral-wool) insulation leader, with a durable moat from structural energy-efficiency/decarbonisation demand, fire-safety regulation, scale melting furnaces and ~22% gross-margin pricing power; underlying continuing ROIC before the Russia hit was a world-class ~19%. It reports in EUR (the Borsdata anchor is DKK-converted).
The dominant FY event: ROCKWOOL lost control of its Russian business on 13 Jan 2026 (presidential decree → external administration), booking a €392M one-off write-off and reclassifying Russia as a discontinued operation. We adopt the continuing-operations basis — it removes both the write-off and Russia's recurring ~€78M EBIT (gone for good). On that basis adjusted ROIC is ~11.6% > 8% WACC with EP +€116M. The company is mid-capex-supercycle (new US/India/Romania plants), depressing near-term FCF, on a fortress 70%-equity balance sheet.
On adjusted continuing NOPAT, ROCKWOOL trades at ~1.9x invested capital / ~6% NOPAT-to-EV on trough margins — the quality is already capitalised; near-term FCF is suppressed by the growth capex.
Base €215 (roughly fair) on a margin recovery toward the 13-14% FY2026 guide; bull €255 if pricing increases stick and the capex cycle delivers; bear €165 on construction-cycle weakness or energy-cost spikes.
The market pays today’s enterprise value for roughly 8.9% NOPAT growth over 5 years. The business earns 12% on capital against a 8% cost of capital (spread +3.6 pp); the no-growth value is €24/share (11% of price), so the rest is priced-in growth.
| Scenario | 24m target | Impl. g | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | €255 | ≥11% | +22% | 30% | Pricing sticks; capex cycle delivers; margins recover |
| Base | €215 | ≥11% | +3% | 45% | Margin recovery toward 13-14% guide; fairly valued |
| Bear | €165 | ≥11% | -21% | 25% | Construction-cycle weakness or energy-cost spikes |
| Prob-weighted | €214 | — | +2% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
| WACC \ g | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 48 |
| 7.25% | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 38 |
| 8.00% (base) | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 |
| 8.75% | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 9.50% | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
Green = fair value above the current price of €209.50. The reverse-DCF conclusion is dominated by WACC and growth — see the whole surface, not a single fair value.
⤓ Download the full model (.xlsx) — formula-driven sheets; flex the blue input cells and the model cascades in Excel.
Decarbonisation + fire-safety regulation drive structural stone-wool demand; ~22% gross margin.
New US/India/Romania plants + electrification build future capacity (a Reinvestor).
Continuing adjusted ROIC ~11.6% > 8% WACC, EP +€116M; underlying ~19% pre-Russia.
~70% equity ratio — funds the capex cycle and absorbed the Russia loss.
ROCKWOOL is a wide-moat, world-class-underlying-return insulation leader navigating a forced Russia exit and a capex supercycle, with quality intact (EP still +€116M) but priced at ~1.9x IC on trough margins. HOLD, medium conviction; base €215.
Accumulate on cyclical weakness rather than here; the energy-efficiency demand moat and the capex cycle are the long-term drivers.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (LTM continuing ops) | 3,616 | Main figures p.2 / IS p.9 📄 p.2 | Q1 2026 report restates FY2025 to continuing operations: FY cont revenue 3,616. LTM = 3,616 - Q1'25 906 + Q1'26 906 = 3,616. Reconciles to annual-report revenue 3,877 (incl. Russia) minus Russia revenue 261 (note 1.5 / disc-op p.14). |
| Revenue (FY2025 incl. Russia) | 3,877 | Statement of profit and loss 📄 p.119 | Full-year group revenue incl. Russia, per the consolidated income statement; note 2.1 (p.129) splits it Insulation 3,206 / Systems 671 external. |
| EBIT (LTM continuing ops) | 472 | Main figures p.2 / IS p.9 📄 p.2 | FY cont EBIT 492; LTM = 492 - Q1'25 140 + Q1'26 120 = 472. Continuing-ops EBIT already excludes both Russia's 78m operating EBIT and the 392m value adjustment. |
| EBIT before Russia value adj (FY, incl. Russia) | 570 | Statement of profit and loss 📄 p.119 | Company's headline APM. Reported EBIT of 178 = 570 minus the 392m loss from value adjustment of the Russian business. |
| Amortisation, depreciation & impairment (LTM) | 283 | note 3.4 p.138 (FY group 294) 📄 p.2 | FY cont D&A 283 (group 294 minus Russia 11). LTM = 283 - 67 + 67 = 283. Group split (note 3.4): intangibles 25 + PP&E 239 + ROU 30 = 294, of which ~22 is one-off factory-closure impairment. |
| Capex - gross PP&E investment (FY2025) | 486 | 5-yr overview p.10 / note 3.2 p.135 📄 p.10 | Gross investment in property, plant and equipment EUR 486m (additions 486, note 3.2). Cash-flow purchase of PP&E was 461 (p.121). vs D&A ~283 => heavy growth capex; 520m tangible assets under construction. |
| Goodwill (FY2025) | 114 | Statement of financial position / note 3.1 p.134 📄 p.120 | Goodwill carrying amount EUR 114m (Insulation CGUs 89 + Systems 25). China/Yangzhou goodwill of 5 fully impaired in 2025 after factory closure (note 3.1 / 3.5). |
| One-off: Russian value adjustment (FY2025) | 392 | note 1.5 📄 p.127 | Loss from value adjustment of the Russian business EUR 392m = full impairment of net assets 475 offset by intra-group loan liability 83. Excluded from adjusted figures via the continuing-ops basis (sits in discontinued operations). |
| One-off: factory-closure impairments (FY2025) | 22 | note 3.2 p.135 + note 3.1 p.134 📄 p.135 | PP&E impairment 16 (Norway + China factory closures) + goodwill 5 (China) + customer relationships 1 (China) = 22. Normalized as a non-recurring add-back to adjusted EBIT. |
| Lease liability (FY2025) | 82 | note 3.3 p.136 📄 p.120 | Lease liabilities non-current 49 + current 33 = 82 (ROU assets 79). Q1 2026 ROU 76 => lease liab ~79. EXCLUDED from IC (peripheral offices/warehouses/vehicles, ~3% of operating assets). IFRS 16 interest (4) already below EBIT. |
| Interest-bearing debt (Q1 2026) | 434 | p.5 net debt + p.10 BS / FY note 5.4 p.150 📄 p.5 | Q1 2026 net IB debt EUR 306m (p.5, leverage 0.4) + cash 207 = gross IB debt incl. leases 513; less lease liabilities ~79 = 434 borrowings/bank debt. FY borrowings were 194 (non-current 29 + current 165, note 5.4); Q1 rose on facility drawings ahead of the April dividend + capex. |
| Cash and cash equivalents (Q1 2026) | 207 | Statement of financial position 📄 p.10 | Cash EUR 207m at 31 Mar 2026 (elevated by pre-funding the April 2026 dividend). Operational cash = 2% x revenue = 72.3; excess cash 134.7 subtracted from IC. |
| Total equity (Q1 2026) | 2,828 | Statement of financial position 📄 p.10 | Equity attributable to shareholders EUR 2,828m (share capital 28, FX translation -22, proposed dividend 118, retained earnings 2,705, hedging -1); NCI 0. accumulated_oci = -22 -1 = -23 stripped => equity_ex_oci 2,851. |
| Tax (normalized effective rate) | 0.25 | note 6.1 📄 p.155 | Effective tax rate BEFORE the Russian value adjustment = 25.0% (Danish statutory 22.0% plus non-Danish mix). Reported all-in rate 85.5% is distorted by the largely non-deductible 392m Russian write-off (+60.5pp). 25% used for adjusted NOPAT; LTM continuing-ops tax expense = 115 (FY 118 - Q1'25 32 + Q1'26 29). |
How the mttssn view has evolved — each prior dated note is preserved.