Eniro Group is the recapitalised remnant of the old Nordic directories business, now a digital-marketing and local-search services provider (~SEK 955M revenue, roughly flat, ~0% organic growth). We add back SEK 16M of items-affecting-comparability (M&A, the Kapatens settlement, restructuring) and KEEP PPA amortization (~SEK 20M of acquired trademarks/customer relationships) in opex, reaching adjusted EBIT ~SEK 71M — which ties exactly to the company's reported adjusted EBITDA bridge (zero APM divergence). Adjusted ROIC ~12.3% only just clears the 10% WACC we apply to a small-cap turnaround.
Two things keep conviction low. First, economic profit is marginal (+SEK 11M, and negative at an 11% hurdle) on a structurally flat, no-moat revenue base. Second, the capital structure: while the operating balance sheet has no bank debt and a 35% equity ratio, there is a large unfunded defined-benefit pension (SEK 268M, ~62% of market cap) and a dominant related-party holder (Azerion ~26%). The optical cheapness is real (~12% FCF yield, ~10x P/E, EV/IC ~1.2x; cash tax ~0 on SEK 411M of loss carry-forwards) and Nordic digital-marketing M&A-consolidation is the optionality — but this is a microcap-specialist situation, not a quality compounder.
On adjusted NOPAT (~SEK 56M at the statutory rate; cash tax ~0 given the loss carry-forwards), the name screens optically cheap — ~12% FCF yield, ~10x P/E, EV/IC ~1.2x — but the pension overhang and lack of growth cap any re-rating, and economic profit is barely positive.
Base SEK 0.60 (≈ current; marginal EP on flat revenue); bull SEK 0.85 if Nordic digital-marketing M&A consolidation + margin improvement + pension de-risking play out; bear SEK 0.40 if revenue erosion resumes and the pension/illiquidity discount widens.
Reverse-DCF panel unavailable: non-positive nopat.
| Scenario | 24m target | Upside | Prob. | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | SEK 1 | +43% | 30% | Nordic digital-marketing M&A roll-up + margin + pension de-risk |
| Base | SEK 1 | +1% | 40% | Marginal EP on flat revenue; cheap optically |
| Bear | SEK 0 | -33% | 30% | Revenue erosion resumes; pension/illiquidity discount widens |
| Prob-weighted | SEK 1 | +4% | 100% | Scenario-weighted expected value |
Cash + no bank debt give dry powder for Nordic digital-marketing roll-up.
~12% FCF yield, ~10x P/E, cash tax ~0 on SEK 411M loss carry-forwards.
Recapitalisation done + the Kapatens dispute settled.
Cost discipline on a flat top line can nudge the thin EP higher.
Eniro is an honestly-cheap (~12% FCF yield, ~10x P/E) but low-quality, no-moat Nordic digital-marketing microcap whose economic profit is barely positive and whose large unfunded pension (~62% of market cap) overhangs the equity. HOLD, low conviction — avoid for quality-focused capital; base SEK 0.60.
Only a microcap-specialist mandate, comfortable with the pension and related-party structure, should engage — the optionality is M&A consolidation, not compounding.
Every adjustment traces to the cited note/page in the source filing — click to open it there. Annual report / 10-K: 📄 open · Latest interim: 📄 open
| Adjustment / figure | Value | Source | Why mttssn treats it this way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales FY2025 | 955 | Koncernens resultatrakning, 'Nettoomsattning' 2025 (also p.5 key-figures and Note 2 segments p.87) | Audited consolidated top line; flat vs 951 (2024) and 960 (2023). Anchor revenue. |
| Operating result (EBIT) reported FY2025 | 55 | Koncernens resultatrakning, 'Rorelseresultat' 2025 | Audited reported operating profit; base for adjusted EBIT (55 + 16 IAC = 71). |
| Items affecting comparability (M&A/settlement/restructuring) FY2025 | 16 | 'EBITDA' 123 vs 'Justerad EBITDA' 139 (key-figures p.5; group LTM table interim p.7) | Non-recurring add-back to EBIT. Difference between reported EBITDA 123 and adjusted EBITDA 139; includes the SEK 17M Kapatens settlement and acquisition/restructuring costs. |
| Goodwill / intangible impairment FY2025 | 0 | Note 7 Immateriella anlaggningstillgangar - 'Arets nedskrivningar' = 0; impairment test value-in-use > carrying value | No impairment recognised - nothing to add back. Sensitivity to +2pp discount rate = 0 MSEK impairment. |
| Depreciation & amortisation FY2025 (total) | 68 | Resultatrakning: tangible -27 + intangible -41 = -68 (also cash-flow add-back p.85) | Bridges adj EBIT to adj EBITDA: 71 + 68 = 139 = company's reported Adjusted EBITDA (validation). |
| PPA-type intangible amortisation (REJECTED add-back) | 20 | Note 7: other trademarks amort -14 + customer relationships amort -6 = -20 (vs IT-dev -21) | Acquisition-related amortisation kept in opex per methodology; not added back to NOPAT. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS-16) 31 Dec 2025 | 35 | Koncernens balansrakning: non-current 'Leasingskuld' 21 + current 'Leasingskuld' 14 | IB-like debt component of invested capital and of net IB-like debt. |
| Pension obligations (net DB deficit) 31 Dec 2025 | 268 | Note 23: net defined-benefit deficit 234 (233 unfunded) + other pension 34 = 268 ('Pensionsforpliktelser i balansrakningen') | Largest debt-like liability; included in IC and net IB-like debt. Almost entirely unfunded. |
| Cash and cash equivalents 31 Dec 2025 | 189 | Koncernens balansrakning, 'Likvida medel' (Note 19); cash-flow closing balance p.85 | Netted in full against IB-like debt: pension 268 + lease 35 - cash 189 = net 114 (= anchor). |
| Total equity / equity to parent 31 Dec 2025 | 344 | Koncernens balansrakning: share capital 298 + reserves -293 + contributed/retained 339 = equity to parent 344; total equity 344 (NCI 0) | IC anchor = equity 344 + net IB-like debt 114 = 458 (matches Borsdata). |
| Income tax FY2025 (credit) | 8 | Note 13 Inkomstskatt: current 0 + deferred +8 = +8 credit; reconciliation shows +19 loss utilisation, +9 newly-usable losses | Documents the tax-shelter reality (cash tax ~0); we apply conservative 20.6% statutory rate to adj EBIT for NOPAT. |
| Unrecognised tax-loss carryforwards 31 Dec 2025 | 411 | Note 14 Uppskjuten skatt: 411 MSEK losses (= 85 MSEK unbooked DTA), 412 usable without time limit, mainly Sweden + Denmark | Supports near-zero forward cash tax; NOPAT on zero-tax basis would be 71 not 56.4. |
| Intangible assets / goodwill 31 Dec 2025 | 530 | Balansrakning 'Immateriella anlaggningstillgangar' 530; Note 7 split goodwill 478 + other 52 | Goodwill 478 = ~104% of book equity; recap/M&A legacy, impairment-test exposure. |
| Operating cash flow & capex FY2025 (FCF) | 52 | Koncernens kassaflodesanalys: OCF 90 - 'Forvarv av ovriga anlaggningstillgangar' 38 = 52 | FCF for FCF-yield (12.1% on mcap). Asset-light; capex modest. |
| Shares outstanding (net of treasury) | 728 | Interim Q1 2026 'Share structure': 746,182,472 total less 18,175,356 treasury = 728,007,116 📄 p.8 | Market-cap basis: 0.593 x 728.01M = SEK 431.7M; matches verified mcap (ex-treasury). |
| Latest share price (verified) | 0.593 | stockanalysis.com/quote/sto/ENRO, close 8 June 2026 (prev close 0.610; 52-wk 0.349-0.789) | Current SEK price for market cap and EV. mcap 431.7, EV 545.7. |